North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#140
Expected Predictive Rating+14.0#23
Pace72.5#96
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#253
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.4% 25.1% 18.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.6
.500 or above 92.2% 95.2% 83.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 95.4% 90.1%
Conference Champion 33.6% 36.2% 25.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round23.4% 25.0% 18.5%
Second Round2.6% 3.0% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 74.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 12 - 3
Quad 34 - 46 - 7
Quad 415 - 421 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 64   @ South Carolina W 74-71 17%     1 - 0 +14.6 +8.6 +6.0
  Nov 07, 2024 303   Charleston Southern W 90-66 86%     2 - 0 +13.7 +5.6 +6.4
  Nov 10, 2024 96   @ Georgia Tech W 105-93 25%     3 - 0 +20.4 +20.2 -1.6
  Nov 12, 2024 68   @ Georgia L 77-90 18%     3 - 1 -1.9 +10.1 -12.3
  Nov 18, 2024 211   UNC Asheville W 82-75 74%    
  Nov 29, 2024 293   @ SIU Edwardsville W 77-72 68%    
  Dec 01, 2024 67   @ Nebraska L 71-81 18%    
  Dec 07, 2024 197   @ Georgia Southern W 82-81 51%    
  Dec 14, 2024 174   UNC Greensboro W 76-71 67%    
  Dec 17, 2024 211   @ UNC Asheville W 79-78 53%    
  Dec 21, 2024 21   @ Florida L 77-92 9%    
  Jan 02, 2025 215   Austin Peay W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 143   Lipscomb W 83-80 61%    
  Jan 09, 2025 225   @ Eastern Kentucky W 81-80 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 328   @ Bellarmine W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 16, 2025 346   Central Arkansas W 86-70 92%    
  Jan 18, 2025 177   North Alabama W 81-76 67%    
  Jan 23, 2025 297   @ Queens W 85-80 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 83-72 83%    
  Jan 29, 2025 322   Stetson W 82-69 88%    
  Feb 01, 2025 232   @ Jacksonville W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 06, 2025 328   Bellarmine W 82-68 88%    
  Feb 08, 2025 239   Florida Gulf Coast W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 13, 2025 177   @ North Alabama L 78-79 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 346   @ Central Arkansas W 83-73 82%    
  Feb 18, 2025 322   @ Stetson W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 20, 2025 232   Jacksonville W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 24, 2025 239   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 26, 2025 225   Eastern Kentucky W 84-77 73%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.0 9.5 8.9 5.1 1.8 33.6 1st
2nd 0.3 2.8 7.2 7.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.7 4.8 1.4 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.4 3.3 0.8 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.7 7.8 10.1 12.5 14.8 14.6 13.1 9.6 5.1 1.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 99.4% 5.1    4.8 0.2
16-2 92.3% 8.9    7.4 1.4 0.0
15-3 72.7% 9.5    6.0 3.1 0.4
14-4 41.2% 6.0    2.4 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.3% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.6% 33.6 22.9 8.5 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 60.9% 59.1% 1.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 4.5%
17-1 5.1% 51.8% 51.3% 0.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 0.9%
16-2 9.6% 42.8% 42.8% 12.5 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.5
15-3 13.1% 33.1% 33.1% 12.9 0.0 1.3 2.1 0.9 0.1 8.7
14-4 14.6% 26.6% 26.6% 13.3 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 10.7
13-5 14.8% 22.1% 22.1% 13.7 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 11.5
12-6 12.5% 13.8% 13.8% 14.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 10.8
11-7 10.1% 12.0% 12.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 8.9
10-8 7.8% 9.7% 9.7% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 7.0
9-9 4.7% 5.2% 5.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.4
8-10 2.8% 3.6% 3.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.7
7-11 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.4% 23.4% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 5.9 7.9 5.6 2.4 0.4 76.6 0.1%