North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#167
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#104
Pace74.9#45
Improvement-2.9#332

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#75
First Shot+2.9#97
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#124
Layup/Dunks+0.7#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.3#5
Freethrows-4.7#360
Improvement-0.9#261

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#312
First Shot-3.7#299
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#258
Layups/Dunks-8.0#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#90
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#139
Freethrows+2.0#56
Improvement-2.0#315
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 16.6% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 85.9% 93.6% 80.6%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 92.8% 87.7%
Conference Champion 17.6% 21.0% 15.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round14.0% 16.6% 12.3%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Away) - 40.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 12 - 4
Quad 34 - 56 - 8
Quad 413 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 69   @ South Carolina W 74-71 14%     1 - 0 +13.9 +8.1 +5.8
  Nov 07, 2024 299   Charleston Southern W 90-66 82%     2 - 0 +13.7 +5.7 +6.2
  Nov 10, 2024 110   @ Georgia Tech W 105-93 24%     3 - 0 +18.9 +21.8 -4.7
  Nov 12, 2024 40   @ Georgia L 77-90 9%     3 - 1 +1.6 +14.1 -12.7
  Nov 18, 2024 182   UNC Asheville L 75-89 63%     3 - 2 -18.1 +2.0 -20.6
  Nov 29, 2024 263   @ SIU Edwardsville W 78-73 58%     4 - 2 +2.4 +3.9 -1.6
  Dec 01, 2024 52   @ Nebraska L 72-103 11%     4 - 3 -17.8 -0.2 -14.8
  Dec 07, 2024 235   @ Georgia Southern L 91-93 OT 51%     4 - 4 -2.9 +4.1 -6.7
  Dec 14, 2024 157   UNC Greensboro W 89-77 59%     5 - 4 +9.1 +14.1 -5.3
  Dec 17, 2024 182   @ UNC Asheville L 80-82 41%    
  Dec 21, 2024 8   @ Florida L 75-96 2%    
  Jan 02, 2025 261   Austin Peay W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 04, 2025 107   Lipscomb L 79-81 44%    
  Jan 09, 2025 218   @ Eastern Kentucky L 82-83 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 333   @ Bellarmine W 85-78 74%    
  Jan 16, 2025 342   Central Arkansas W 85-71 90%    
  Jan 18, 2025 193   North Alabama W 82-78 64%    
  Jan 23, 2025 280   @ Queens W 86-83 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 348   @ West Georgia W 83-74 78%    
  Jan 29, 2025 336   Stetson W 88-75 88%    
  Feb 01, 2025 204   @ Jacksonville L 77-78 45%    
  Feb 06, 2025 333   Bellarmine W 88-75 88%    
  Feb 08, 2025 180   Florida Gulf Coast W 77-74 63%    
  Feb 13, 2025 193   @ North Alabama L 79-81 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 342   @ Central Arkansas W 82-74 76%    
  Feb 18, 2025 336   @ Stetson W 85-78 74%    
  Feb 20, 2025 204   Jacksonville W 80-75 66%    
  Feb 24, 2025 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 26, 2025 218   Eastern Kentucky W 85-80 68%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 5.6 3.9 1.7 0.4 17.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.1 6.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 7.2 5.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 17.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.0 4.2 0.8 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.8 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.0 7.9 11.1 13.5 15.2 14.8 12.2 8.4 4.4 1.8 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.0% 1.7    1.6 0.1
16-2 87.7% 3.9    3.0 0.9 0.0
15-3 65.9% 5.6    3.2 2.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 35.0% 4.3    1.6 2.0 0.6 0.1
13-5 10.0% 1.5    0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.6% 17.6 10.0 5.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 43.3% 43.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.8% 38.8% 38.8% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1
16-2 4.4% 33.3% 33.3% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.0
15-3 8.4% 27.2% 27.2% 13.2 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 6.1
14-4 12.2% 20.5% 20.5% 13.5 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.2 9.7
13-5 14.8% 16.8% 16.8% 13.9 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.0 12.3
12-6 15.2% 11.8% 11.8% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 13.4
11-7 13.5% 9.9% 9.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 12.2
10-8 11.1% 7.0% 7.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 10.3
9-9 7.9% 4.6% 4.6% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 7.5
8-10 5.0% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 4.9
7-11 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.8
6-12 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.4 4.9 2.7 0.5 85.9 0.0%