Florida
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.5#5
Expected Predictive Rating+20.0#7
Pace73.8#60
Improvement+2.5#73

Offense
Total Offense+12.0#7
First Shot+8.6#12
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#20
Layup/Dunks+6.2#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#50
Freethrows-0.3#194
Improvement+0.2#169

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#14
First Shot+9.3#7
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#258
Layups/Dunks+2.1#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#5
Freethrows+2.1#54
Improvement+2.4#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.2% 5.7% 2.5%
#1 Seed 30.1% 32.4% 17.5%
Top 2 Seed 64.4% 67.3% 48.6%
Top 4 Seed 93.9% 95.3% 86.3%
Top 6 Seed 99.0% 99.3% 97.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.3 2.2 2.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 98.6% 93.0%
Conference Champion 11.5% 12.9% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round96.6% 96.9% 94.9%
Sweet Sixteen72.2% 73.0% 67.5%
Elite Eight45.6% 46.8% 39.3%
Final Four26.2% 26.9% 21.8%
Championship Game14.1% 14.7% 10.9%
National Champion7.1% 7.5% 4.8%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 84.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 6
Quad 26 - 116 - 7
Quad 34 - 020 - 7
Quad 46 - 027 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 154   South Florida W 98-83 96%     1 - 0 +15.6 +16.1 -1.8
  Nov 07, 2024 185   Jacksonville W 81-60 98%     2 - 0 +17.2 +12.7 +5.4
  Nov 11, 2024 325   Grambling St. W 86-62 99%     3 - 0 +11.2 +4.5 +5.7
  Nov 15, 2024 58   @ Florida St. W 87-74 78%     4 - 0 +25.3 +15.7 +8.8
  Nov 19, 2024 360   Florida A&M W 84-60 99.7%    5 - 0 +6.6 +5.2 +1.8
  Nov 22, 2024 190   Southern Illinois W 93-68 98%     6 - 0 +21.0 +16.6 +3.7
  Nov 28, 2024 59   Wake Forest W 75-58 85%     7 - 0 +26.4 +11.6 +15.4
  Nov 29, 2024 138   Wichita St. W 88-51 95%     8 - 0 +38.6 +17.2 +22.1
  Dec 04, 2024 107   Virginia W 87-69 96%     9 - 0 +18.7 +25.0 -4.7
  Dec 14, 2024 64   Arizona St. W 83-66 86%     10 - 0 +25.6 +9.7 +14.7
  Dec 17, 2024 26   North Carolina W 90-84 74%     11 - 0 +19.8 +14.6 +4.5
  Dec 21, 2024 245   North Florida W 99-45 99%     12 - 0 +46.6 +11.5 +32.1
  Dec 29, 2024 348   Stetson W 85-45 99.6%    13 - 0 +25.1 -3.5 +25.9
  Jan 04, 2025 15   @ Kentucky L 100-106 54%     13 - 1 0 - 1 +13.3 +30.0 -16.6
  Jan 07, 2025 8   Tennessee W 73-43 67%     14 - 1 1 - 1 +46.0 +12.3 +34.8
  Jan 11, 2025 46   @ Arkansas W 71-63 74%     15 - 1 2 - 1 +21.8 +7.6 +14.3
  Jan 14, 2025 29   Missouri L 82-83 82%     15 - 2 2 - 2 +9.6 +13.6 -4.0
  Jan 18, 2025 38   Texas W 84-60 85%     16 - 2 3 - 2 +33.3 +16.1 +17.3
  Jan 22, 2025 82   @ South Carolina W 78-67 85%    
  Jan 25, 2025 34   Georgia W 79-69 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 8   @ Tennessee L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 04, 2025 48   Vanderbilt W 86-74 89%    
  Feb 08, 2025 2   @ Auburn L 79-84 30%    
  Feb 11, 2025 23   @ Mississippi St. W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 82   South Carolina W 81-65 94%    
  Feb 18, 2025 45   Oklahoma W 85-73 88%    
  Feb 22, 2025 63   @ LSU W 82-73 80%    
  Feb 25, 2025 34   @ Georgia W 77-72 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 21   Texas A&M W 79-71 77%    
  Mar 05, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 87-89 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 19   Mississippi W 79-71 76%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 4.7 4.0 1.2 11.5 1st
2nd 0.2 3.3 11.2 9.5 2.0 0.0 26.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 8.6 8.0 1.0 0.0 19.4 3rd
4th 0.3 5.4 7.5 1.3 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 6.1 2.0 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.4 3.6 2.7 0.2 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.1 0.7 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.1 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.4 10.3 16.8 21.7 22.1 15.3 6.0 1.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 97.6% 1.2    1.0 0.2
15-3 66.4% 4.0    2.2 1.5 0.2
14-4 31.0% 4.7    1.1 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 6.9% 1.5    0.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.5% 11.5 4.4 4.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.3% 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% 1.1 1.1 0.1 100.0%
15-3 6.0% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 1.2 4.5 1.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.3% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.5 8.9 5.8 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 22.1% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 1.8 8.6 10.2 2.9 0.3 100.0%
12-6 21.7% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 2.2 5.0 9.6 5.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 16.8% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 2.7 1.6 5.4 6.3 3.0 0.6 0.0 100.0%
10-8 10.3% 99.9% 8.4% 91.5% 3.5 0.3 1.5 3.2 3.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 4.4% 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 4.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 1.7% 99.4% 2.9% 96.5% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
7-11 0.4% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 17.7% 82.3% 2.3 30.1 34.3 19.5 10.0 3.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.0 95.7 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 87.9 12.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 88.5 11.5