Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#169
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#208
Pace70.1#145
Improvement-1.3#269

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#230
First Shot-3.1#268
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#119
Layup/Dunks+2.5#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#280
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#272
Freethrows-1.1#246
Improvement-0.6#235

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#124
First Shot+2.4#104
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#268
Layups/Dunks-1.9#248
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#121
Freethrows+1.1#106
Improvement-0.7#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.1% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 24.3% 33.1% 13.7%
.500 or above in Conference 37.4% 42.6% 31.2%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 9.7% 7.9% 11.9%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round2.5% 3.0% 1.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Home) - 54.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 35 - 86 - 15
Quad 47 - 213 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 122   College of Charleston L 80-90 38%     0 - 1 -7.5 +0.1 -6.5
  Nov 14, 2024 85   @ Oklahoma St. L 78-85 17%     0 - 2 +2.4 +6.2 -3.5
  Nov 18, 2024 131   North Dakota St. W 69-44 53%     1 - 2 +23.8 -3.4 +29.0
  Nov 22, 2024 8   @ Florida L 68-93 3%     1 - 3 -4.1 +1.6 -4.9
  Nov 25, 2024 101   Louisiana Tech L 79-85 OT 30%     1 - 4 -1.0 -4.7 +4.7
  Nov 26, 2024 218   Eastern Kentucky L 72-77 59%     1 - 5 -7.8 -5.7 -2.0
  Dec 03, 2024 76   Bradley L 60-83 32%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -18.9 -11.6 -7.9
  Dec 07, 2024 281   Southern Indiana W 73-70 79%     2 - 6 -6.2 +1.1 -7.1
  Dec 14, 2024 261   @ Austin Peay W 65-60 57%     3 - 6 +2.5 +0.0 +3.0
  Dec 21, 2024 134   High Point W 73-72 54%    
  Dec 29, 2024 99   @ Northern Iowa L 66-75 20%    
  Jan 01, 2025 268   Evansville W 75-67 78%    
  Jan 05, 2025 160   @ Illinois St. L 68-71 37%    
  Jan 08, 2025 129   @ Belmont L 75-80 30%    
  Jan 11, 2025 191   Missouri St. W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 15, 2025 191   @ Missouri St. L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 99   Northern Iowa L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 22, 2025 116   Murray St. L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 215   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 28, 2025 227   @ Valparaiso L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 01, 2025 70   @ Drake L 60-71 15%    
  Feb 05, 2025 268   @ Evansville W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 215   Illinois-Chicago W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 12, 2025 76   @ Bradley L 67-78 17%    
  Feb 15, 2025 129   Belmont W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 116   @ Murray St. L 64-71 27%    
  Feb 22, 2025 227   Valparaiso W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 25, 2025 160   Illinois St. W 71-68 59%    
  Mar 02, 2025 168   @ Indiana St. L 77-80 40%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.0 6.8 9.6 12.2 13.3 13.6 12.2 9.7 7.0 4.4 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 88.9% 0.0    0.0
17-3 77.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 51.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 26.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 19.3% 19.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 18.0% 18.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.1% 15.7% 15.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-6 2.5% 12.8% 12.8% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2
13-7 4.4% 8.6% 8.6% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.0
12-8 7.0% 6.6% 6.6% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.5
11-9 9.7% 3.7% 3.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.4
10-10 12.2% 2.4% 2.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.9
9-11 13.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.5
8-12 13.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.2
7-13 12.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.1
6-14 9.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.6
5-15 6.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.8
4-16 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
3-17 2.0% 2.0
2-18 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 97.4 0.0%