Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#190
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#227
Pace69.2#167
Improvement+1.7#106

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#221
First Shot-2.6#250
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#129
Layup/Dunks+2.0#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#273
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#272
Freethrows-0.1#181
Improvement+0.9#126

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#153
First Shot+1.4#129
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#266
Layups/Dunks-2.8#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#54
Freethrows+0.2#173
Improvement+0.9#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 1.8% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 15.5
.500 or above 5.5% 8.9% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 22.1% 32.8% 11.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 1.7% 6.9%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round1.4% 1.7% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Home) - 50.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 35 - 86 - 16
Quad 46 - 312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 127   College of Charleston L 80-90 36%     0 - 1 -7.7 +0.5 -7.2
  Nov 14, 2024 101   @ Oklahoma St. L 78-85 21%     0 - 2 +0.3 +6.5 -5.9
  Nov 18, 2024 112   North Dakota St. W 69-44 44%     1 - 2 +25.4 -3.4 +30.6
  Nov 22, 2024 5   @ Florida L 68-93 2%     1 - 3 -1.8 +3.1 -4.1
  Nov 25, 2024 120   Louisiana Tech L 79-85 OT 35%     1 - 4 -3.3 -6.8 +4.5
  Nov 26, 2024 248   Eastern Kentucky L 72-77 64%     1 - 5 -9.8 -7.0 -2.7
  Dec 03, 2024 73   Bradley L 60-83 28%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -18.1 -8.5 -10.2
  Dec 07, 2024 324   Southern Indiana W 73-70 85%     2 - 6 -9.6 -0.1 -9.3
  Dec 14, 2024 298   @ Austin Peay W 65-60 64%     3 - 6 +0.1 -1.3 +1.8
  Dec 21, 2024 105   High Point L 81-94 41%     3 - 7 -12.1 +1.4 -13.2
  Dec 29, 2024 113   @ Northern Iowa L 67-78 25%     3 - 8 0 - 2 -5.3 -0.6 -5.3
  Jan 01, 2025 261   Evansville L 53-68 75%     3 - 9 0 - 3 -23.4 -17.7 -6.4
  Jan 05, 2025 144   @ Illinois St. L 54-85 30%     3 - 10 0 - 4 -26.9 -19.0 -8.5
  Jan 08, 2025 139   @ Belmont L 86-90 29%     3 - 11 0 - 5 +0.3 +12.4 -12.0
  Jan 11, 2025 244   Missouri St. W 88-78 OT 72%     4 - 11 1 - 5 +2.7 +5.8 -3.8
  Jan 15, 2025 244   @ Missouri St. W 73-51 52%     5 - 11 2 - 5 +20.2 +5.0 +16.7
  Jan 18, 2025 113   Northern Iowa W 73-49 44%     6 - 11 3 - 5 +24.2 +10.4 +17.7
  Jan 22, 2025 142   Murray St. L 68-69 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 143   @ Illinois-Chicago L 71-76 30%    
  Jan 28, 2025 214   @ Valparaiso L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 80   @ Drake L 58-69 14%    
  Feb 05, 2025 261   @ Evansville W 68-66 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 143   Illinois-Chicago W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 12, 2025 73   @ Bradley L 64-76 13%    
  Feb 15, 2025 139   Belmont L 77-78 50%    
  Feb 19, 2025 142   @ Murray St. L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 214   Valparaiso W 74-70 67%    
  Feb 25, 2025 144   Illinois St. W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 02, 2025 213   @ Indiana St. L 79-80 45%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.3 0.1 3.8 4th
5th 0.4 2.7 3.0 0.5 6.6 5th
6th 0.2 3.4 5.4 1.5 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 3.1 7.8 2.9 0.1 14.1 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 9.2 5.3 0.5 18.1 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 8.5 6.1 0.7 17.4 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 6.7 6.0 0.8 0.1 15.7 10th
11th 0.3 1.6 4.1 3.8 0.8 0.0 10.7 11th
12th 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 12th
Total 0.4 2.4 6.8 12.8 18.5 19.4 17.7 11.8 6.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 11.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.7% 8.1% 8.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-8 2.6% 7.8% 7.8% 13.7 0.1 0.1 2.4
11-9 6.9% 3.3% 3.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.7
10-10 11.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.3 0.0 11.5
9-11 17.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.1 0.2 17.4
8-12 19.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 19.2
7-13 18.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 18.3
6-14 12.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.7
5-15 6.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.8
4-16 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%