Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#161
Expected Predictive Rating-7.9#300
Pace63.3#332
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#183
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#137
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 11.3% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.5 13.3
.500 or above 47.5% 69.5% 42.1%
.500 or above in Conference 57.2% 71.0% 53.9%
Conference Champion 7.0% 12.0% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 3.1% 7.4%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round7.0% 11.2% 6.0%
Second Round1.2% 2.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 19.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 77 - 13
Quad 48 - 315 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 100   College of Charleston L 80-90 33%     0 - 1 -5.0 +0.5 -4.5
  Nov 14, 2024 87   @ Oklahoma St. L 64-73 20%    
  Nov 18, 2024 222   North Dakota St. W 73-66 73%    
  Nov 22, 2024 21   @ Florida L 66-82 7%    
  Nov 25, 2024 92   Louisiana Tech L 64-69 31%    
  Nov 26, 2024 225   Eastern Kentucky W 73-69 63%    
  Dec 03, 2024 90   Bradley L 66-68 42%    
  Dec 07, 2024 317   Southern Indiana W 73-61 86%    
  Dec 14, 2024 215   @ Austin Peay W 65-64 51%    
  Dec 21, 2024 125   High Point W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 29, 2024 128   @ Northern Iowa L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 01, 2025 248   Evansville W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 05, 2025 173   @ Illinois St. L 64-66 43%    
  Jan 08, 2025 151   @ Belmont L 70-74 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 195   Missouri St. W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 15, 2025 195   @ Missouri St. L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 128   Northern Iowa W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 22, 2025 136   Murray St. W 66-64 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 162   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 28, 2025 278   @ Valparaiso W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 98   @ Drake L 63-71 26%    
  Feb 05, 2025 248   @ Evansville W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 162   Illinois-Chicago W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 12, 2025 90   @ Bradley L 63-71 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 151   Belmont W 73-71 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 136   @ Murray St. L 63-67 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 278   Valparaiso W 73-63 79%    
  Feb 25, 2025 173   Illinois St. W 67-63 63%    
  Mar 02, 2025 207   @ Indiana St. L 71-72 50%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 7.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.9 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.1 2.4 0.5 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.7 2.2 0.6 0.0 7.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.8 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.8 4.3 5.9 8.0 9.3 9.9 11.0 10.5 9.9 8.5 6.4 4.8 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 97.4% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
17-3 81.9% 1.5    1.2 0.3 0.0
16-4 60.9% 1.9    1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 32.8% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 10.9% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 4.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 44.7% 37.6% 7.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.3%
18-2 0.8% 40.4% 37.9% 2.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 4.1%
17-3 1.8% 35.2% 34.7% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.8%
16-4 3.2% 28.4% 28.2% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.3%
15-5 4.8% 20.0% 20.0% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.9
14-6 6.4% 16.0% 16.0% 13.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.4
13-7 8.5% 12.1% 12.1% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.4
12-8 9.9% 8.3% 8.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.1
11-9 10.5% 5.3% 5.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.9
10-10 11.0% 2.8% 2.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.7
9-11 9.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.7
8-12 9.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.2
7-13 8.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.9
6-14 5.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.9
5-15 4.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.3
4-16 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-17 1.7% 1.7
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.1% 7.0% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 92.9 0.1%