Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#143
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#157
Pace70.4#159
Improvement-0.7#234

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#143
First Shot+0.3#165
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#143
Layup/Dunks+4.9#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.3#365
Freethrows+1.3#106
Improvement-1.7#310

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#161
First Shot-0.4#188
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#145
Layups/Dunks+6.4#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#310
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#336
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement+1.0#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 6.3% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 51.6% 57.2% 30.9%
.500 or above in Conference 54.8% 57.6% 44.3%
Conference Champion 5.4% 6.0% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 4.3% 7.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round5.7% 6.3% 3.5%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 78.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 62 - 8
Quad 35 - 78 - 14
Quad 48 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 346 UMKC W 101-78 93%     1 - 0 +7.9 +14.5 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 12 106 @Nevada L 81-86 OT 28%     1 - 1 +2.3 +2.8 +0.1
  Mon, Nov 17 155 @North Dakota St. L 85-92 44%     1 - 2 -4.2 +6.8 -10.4
  Sun, Nov 23 296 Delaware W 79-59 79%     2 - 2 +12.5 +4.8 +8.3
  Mon, Nov 24 110 UAB L 73-81 40%     2 - 3 -4.3 +1.7 -6.0
  Wed, Nov 26 69 @Memphis L 58-74 17%     2 - 4 -4.8 -8.0 +3.2
  Sat, Nov 29 315 Arkansas Little Rock W 74-65 88%     3 - 4 -2.6 +3.1 -4.9
  Wed, Dec 3 97 @High Point W 86-84 25%     4 - 4 +10.2 +9.3 +0.8
  Wed, Dec 10 240 Tennessee Martin W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Dec 13 105 @Richmond L 73-79 28%    
  Thu, Dec 18 92 Illinois St. L 72-74 44%    
  Sun, Dec 21 115 @Bradley L 70-75 31%    
  Mon, Dec 29 111 @Murray St. L 77-83 30%    
  Thu, Jan 1 211 Valparaiso W 74-67 76%    
  Sun, Jan 4 90 @Belmont L 73-81 24%    
  Wed, Jan 7 204 @Illinois-Chicago W 76-75 52%    
  Wed, Jan 14 124 Drake W 72-70 55%    
  Sat, Jan 17 90 Belmont L 76-78 43%    
  Wed, Jan 21 211 @Valparaiso W 71-70 55%    
  Sun, Jan 25 265 @Evansville W 73-69 63%    
  Wed, Jan 28 98 Northern Iowa L 66-67 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 204 Illinois-Chicago W 79-72 73%    
  Tue, Feb 3 92 @Illinois St. L 69-77 25%    
  Fri, Feb 6 111 Murray St. W 80-79 52%    
  Mon, Feb 9 198 @Indiana St. W 78-77 52%    
  Thu, Feb 12 265 Evansville W 76-66 81%    
  Sun, Feb 15 115 Bradley W 73-72 52%    
  Wed, Feb 18 124 @Drake L 69-73 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 98 @Northern Iowa L 63-70 26%    
  Wed, Feb 25 198 Indiana St. W 81-74 71%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.1 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.6 4.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.8 5.2 2.1 0.2 12.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.4 5.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 13.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.4 5.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 13.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.9 4.4 1.7 0.2 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 2.9 1.1 0.1 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.0 8.7 11.0 12.3 13.1 12.0 10.4 7.8 5.3 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 93.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
16-4 78.9% 1.4    0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 49.9% 1.6    0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 18.4% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 27.8% 26.8% 1.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4%
17-3 0.8% 30.6% 30.6% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.8% 22.4% 22.4% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.4
15-5 3.2% 16.9% 16.9% 12.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7
14-6 5.3% 14.7% 14.7% 12.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 4.5
13-7 7.8% 11.8% 11.8% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.9
12-8 10.4% 8.3% 8.3% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.6
11-9 12.0% 5.9% 5.9% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.3
10-10 13.1% 4.3% 4.3% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.5
9-11 12.3% 2.4% 2.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.0
8-12 11.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.8
7-13 8.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.7
6-14 6.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.0
5-15 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.9
4-16 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 94.3 0.0%