Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#90
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#86
Pace75.2#49
Improvement+1.2#96

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#112
First Shot+2.4#112
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#172
Layup/Dunks+0.8#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#30
Freethrows-2.4#316
Improvement+1.5#67

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#78
First Shot+2.7#87
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#142
Layups/Dunks+6.4#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#316
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#255
Freethrows+0.6#147
Improvement-0.3#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 23.8% 18.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.7 12.2
.500 or above 97.8% 99.2% 96.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.4% 92.9% 87.4%
Conference Champion 29.4% 33.7% 24.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round21.2% 23.6% 18.3%
Second Round4.1% 5.0% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 23 - 43 - 4
Quad 310 - 512 - 9
Quad 410 - 123 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 331 Air Force W 79-63 95%     1 - 0 +2.8 +5.1 -1.5
  Sat, Nov 8 249 Tennessee St. W 87-79 90%     2 - 0 +0.1 +0.2 -1.2
  Sat, Nov 15 301 @Oral Roberts W 83-60 84%     3 - 0 +18.3 +0.5 +16.2
  Wed, Nov 19 161 Lipscomb W 75-68 81%     4 - 0 +3.5 -5.6 +8.4
  Mon, Nov 24 357 St. Francis (PA) W 94-57 96%     5 - 0 +23.1 +14.0 +8.1
  Wed, Nov 26 163 Toledo W 87-72 73%     6 - 0 +14.4 +8.7 +5.4
  Sun, Nov 30 175 @College of Charleston W 96-73 66%     7 - 0 +24.7 +22.2 +2.2
  Wed, Dec 3 105 Richmond L 76-84 67%     7 - 1 -6.6 -0.5 -5.8
  Sun, Dec 7 136 @Middle Tennessee W 78-77 55%    
  Sat, Dec 13 204 Illinois-Chicago W 83-71 86%    
  Tue, Dec 16 265 @Evansville W 77-69 79%    
  Fri, Dec 19 120 @UC Irvine L 71-72 50%    
  Mon, Dec 29 198 @Indiana St. W 81-76 69%    
  Thu, Jan 1 115 Bradley W 77-72 69%    
  Sun, Jan 4 143 Southern Illinois W 81-73 76%    
  Wed, Jan 7 98 @Northern Iowa L 67-69 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 124 @Drake W 72-71 51%    
  Tue, Jan 13 211 Valparaiso W 78-66 86%    
  Sat, Jan 17 143 @Southern Illinois W 78-76 57%    
  Sun, Jan 25 92 Illinois St. W 76-73 61%    
  Wed, Jan 28 211 @Valparaiso W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Jan 31 111 Murray St. W 84-79 68%    
  Tue, Feb 3 124 Drake W 75-69 72%    
  Fri, Feb 6 204 @Illinois-Chicago W 80-74 69%    
  Mon, Feb 9 115 @Bradley L 74-75 48%    
  Thu, Feb 12 98 Northern Iowa W 70-66 63%    
  Sun, Feb 15 111 @Murray St. L 81-82 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 198 Indiana St. W 84-73 84%    
  Wed, Feb 25 265 Evansville W 80-66 90%    
  Sun, Mar 1 92 @Illinois St. L 73-76 40%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.0 6.1 7.7 6.7 3.6 1.3 0.3 29.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.9 7.2 5.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.0 3.4 0.9 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.5 6.7 9.4 11.6 13.3 14.1 12.7 10.1 7.2 3.6 1.3 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
18-2 98.8% 3.6    3.5 0.1
17-3 92.8% 6.7    5.7 1.0 0.0
16-4 76.4% 7.7    5.2 2.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 48.3% 6.1    2.9 2.4 0.7 0.0
14-6 21.4% 3.0    0.8 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.4% 29.4 19.9 7.3 1.9 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 72.8% 59.8% 13.0% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 32.4%
19-1 1.3% 58.1% 51.6% 6.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 13.3%
18-2 3.6% 45.5% 43.2% 2.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.0 4.0%
17-3 7.2% 38.4% 37.6% 0.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.1 4.5 1.3%
16-4 10.1% 32.2% 32.0% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 1.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 6.8 0.3%
15-5 12.7% 26.8% 26.7% 0.1% 12.0 0.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.3 0.1%
14-6 14.1% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 12.1 0.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 10.7 0.0%
13-7 13.3% 17.4% 17.4% 12.4 0.1 1.4 0.8 0.1 11.0
12-8 11.6% 15.0% 15.0% 12.5 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.1 9.9
11-9 9.4% 11.2% 11.2% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.3
10-10 6.7% 6.9% 6.9% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.3
9-11 4.5% 4.6% 4.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.3
8-12 2.6% 3.0% 3.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
7-13 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.3% 21.0% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 4.8 11.3 3.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 78.7 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.9 2.7 5.4 13.5 18.9 27.0 16.2 5.4 5.4 2.7 2.7