Preseason Rankings
Belmont
Missouri Valley
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#112
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.2#30
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#93
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#146
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 14.9% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.7 12.4
.500 or above 78.3% 81.0% 55.6%
.500 or above in Conference 73.4% 75.3% 57.4%
Conference Champion 17.2% 18.3% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.6% 6.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round13.9% 14.7% 7.1%
Second Round2.8% 3.0% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 89.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 37 - 59 - 10
Quad 410 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 280   Air Force W 77-64 89%    
  Nov 08, 2025 259   Tennessee St. W 85-73 87%    
  Nov 15, 2025 310   @ Oral Roberts W 82-73 79%    
  Nov 19, 2025 188   Lipscomb W 78-70 77%    
  Nov 24, 2025 344   St. Francis (PA) W 82-67 91%    
  Nov 30, 2025 123   @ College of Charleston L 79-81 44%    
  Dec 03, 2025 137   Richmond W 74-69 67%    
  Dec 07, 2025 147   @ Middle Tennessee W 77-76 50%    
  Dec 13, 2025 154   Illinois-Chicago W 81-75 71%    
  Dec 16, 2025 241   @ Evansville W 75-70 67%    
  Dec 19, 2025 93   @ UC Irvine L 73-78 34%    
  Dec 29, 2025 170   @ Indiana St. W 85-83 56%    
  Jan 01, 2026 107   Bradley W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 04, 2026 141   Southern Illinois W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 07, 2026 110   @ Northern Iowa L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 10, 2026 114   @ Drake L 63-66 41%    
  Jan 13, 2026 261   Valparaiso W 83-71 84%    
  Jan 17, 2026 141   @ Southern Illinois L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 25, 2026 109   Illinois St. W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 28, 2026 261   @ Valparaiso W 80-74 69%    
  Jan 31, 2026 127   Murray St. W 75-70 65%    
  Feb 03, 2026 114   Drake W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 06, 2026 154   @ Illinois-Chicago W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 09, 2026 107   @ Bradley L 71-75 38%    
  Feb 12, 2026 110   Northern Iowa W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 15, 2026 127   @ Murray St. L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 21, 2026 170   Indiana St. W 88-80 73%    
  Feb 25, 2026 241   Evansville W 78-67 81%    
  Mar 01, 2026 109   @ Illinois St. L 74-77 39%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.2 4.3 3.9 2.6 1.1 0.3 17.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.5 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.8 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.7 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.4 3.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.4 1.0 0.1 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.1 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.5 6.2 7.9 9.3 10.4 10.6 10.5 9.5 8.1 6.5 4.4 2.6 1.1 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 98.5% 2.6    2.4 0.2
17-3 89.1% 3.9    3.1 0.8 0.0
16-4 65.7% 4.3    2.7 1.4 0.2
15-5 40.1% 3.2    1.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 14.5% 1.4    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 11.5 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 85.7% 63.6% 22.1% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.7%
19-1 1.1% 66.2% 53.9% 12.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 26.6%
18-2 2.6% 48.7% 43.1% 5.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.1 1.4 9.8%
17-3 4.4% 41.1% 37.9% 3.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.6 5.2%
16-4 6.5% 31.9% 31.2% 0.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.5 1.0%
15-5 8.1% 23.5% 23.4% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.2 0.1%
14-6 9.5% 19.0% 19.0% 12.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.7
13-7 10.5% 14.3% 14.3% 12.4 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.0
12-8 10.6% 10.2% 10.2% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.5
11-9 10.4% 7.1% 7.1% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.7
10-10 9.3% 4.2% 4.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.9
9-11 7.9% 3.2% 3.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.7
8-12 6.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
7-13 4.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
6-14 3.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.3
5-15 2.3% 2.3
4-16 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.1% 13.5% 0.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 4.3 5.0 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 85.9 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.9 5.9 11.6 11.9 41.1 11.8 17.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 75.3% 6.7 0.6 24.7 49.4 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 60.0% 7.7 20.0 20.0 20.0