IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.3	#123
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.2	#48
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.1	#111

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.2	#157

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	19.1%	25.4%	16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.7	12.2	13.0

.500 or above	84.1%	94.2%	80.0%
.500 or above in Conference	87.1%	93.0%	84.7%
Conference Champion	26.1%	35.0%	22.6%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.2%	0.8%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
First Round	19.1%	25.3%	16.6%
Second Round	2.5%	4.1%	1.9%
Sweet Sixteen	0.5%	0.8%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Away) - 28.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	6 - 5	7 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 3	19 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2025	97	@ Liberty	L	69-75	29%
Nov 08, 2025	139	Florida Atlantic	W	78-77	53%
Nov 14, 2025	311	South Carolina St.	W	83-69	89%
Nov 17, 2025	114	Drake	W	65-63	56%
Nov 21, 2025	173	Massachusetts	W	80-77	62%
Nov 30, 2025	112	Belmont	W	81-79	56%
Dec 10, 2025	106	@ South Florida	L	74-79	33%
Dec 14, 2025	185	Charlotte	W	76-69	73%
Dec 17, 2025	342	The Citadel	W	80-63	93%
Dec 21, 2025	266	@ Northern Kentucky	W	75-70	66%
Dec 29, 2025	227	Drexel	W	72-63	77%
Dec 31, 2025	228	@ Elon	W	74-71	60%
Jan 05, 2026	229	William & Mary	W	86-77	78%
Jan 10, 2026	236	Hampton	W	76-67	79%
Jan 15, 2026	131	@ Towson	L	69-72	41%
Jan 17, 2026	288	@ Stony Brook	W	75-69	70%
Jan 22, 2026	203	Campbell	W	76-68	74%
Jan 24, 2026	228	Elon	W	77-68	77%
Jan 29, 2026	178	@ Hofstra	W	68-67	53%
Jan 31, 2026	226	@ Northeastern	W	76-73	59%
Feb 05, 2026	351	N.C. A&T	W	86-68	92%
Feb 09, 2026	118	UNC Wilmington	W	75-72	58%
Feb 12, 2026	178	Hofstra	W	71-64	71%
Feb 14, 2026	203	@ Campbell	W	73-71	55%
Feb 19, 2026	351	@ N.C. A&T	W	83-71	83%
Feb 21, 2026	211	Monmouth	W	79-71	75%
Feb 26, 2026	236	@ Hampton	W	73-70	61%
Feb 28, 2026	118	@ UNC Wilmington	L	72-75	39%
Projected Record						18 - 10	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	2.0	5.2	7.2	6.5	3.8	1.2		26.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	2.7	5.8	5.8	2.6	0.6	0.0			18.0	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	2.3	5.5	4.3	1.3	0.1	0.0				13.7	3rd
4th										0.2	1.8	4.8	3.2	0.8	0.0						10.9	4th
5th									0.0	1.1	3.8	2.8	0.5	0.0							8.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.5	2.6	2.6	0.5	0.0								6.3	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	1.7	2.7	0.6	0.0									5.3	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	1.0	1.9	0.8	0.0										3.8	8th
9th						0.0	0.6	1.3	0.8	0.1											2.8	9th
10th				0.0	0.0	0.3	0.9	0.7	0.1												2.1	10th
11th			0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0												1.5	11th
12th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0													0.8	12th
13th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0															0.3	13th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.3	2.2	3.4	5.1	7.5	9.1	10.9	12.4	12.9	12.3	9.9	7.1	3.8	1.2			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.2		1.2
17-1	99.7%	3.8		3.6	0.2
16-2	92.0%	6.5		5.3	1.1	0.0
15-3	72.2%	7.2		4.8	2.1	0.3	0.0
14-4	42.0%	5.2		2.2	2.2	0.7	0.1
13-5	15.2%	2.0		0.5	0.8	0.6	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.6%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	26.1%	26.1		17.6	6.6	1.7	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.2%		61.2%	56.9%	4.3%	9.6			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0				0.5		10.0%
17-1	3.8%		51.2%	50.8%	0.4%	11.5						0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.9	0.7	0.2	0.0			1.8		0.9%
16-2	7.1%		43.1%	43.0%	0.1%	11.9										0.0	0.0	0.8	1.6	0.5	0.1			4.0		0.1%
15-3	9.9%		35.1%	35.1%		12.4												0.3	1.6	1.2	0.3	0.0		6.5
14-4	12.3%		26.8%	26.8%		12.8												0.1	1.1	1.4	0.6	0.1	0.0	9.0
13-5	12.9%		19.7%	19.7%		13.4												0.0	0.4	1.0	0.9	0.2	0.0	10.3
12-6	12.4%		14.7%	14.7%		13.8												0.0	0.1	0.6	0.8	0.3	0.0	10.6
11-7	10.9%		10.2%	10.2%		14.4													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.0	9.7
10-8	9.1%		7.6%	7.6%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.0	8.4
9-9	7.5%		3.3%	3.3%		16.1														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	7.2
8-10	5.1%		1.7%	1.7%		16.7														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.0
7-11	3.4%		1.1%	1.1%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	3.4
6-12	2.2%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	2.2
5-13	1.3%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	1.2
4-14	0.6%																							0.6
3-15	0.3%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.0	0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		19.1%	19.0%	0.1%	12.7			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	2.5	5.6	5.4	3.4	1.4	0.3	80.9		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	6.4		2.9	11.5	8.6	17.2	14.4	17.1	8.5	5.7	5.6	8.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	37.7%	10.7										12.6	25.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	10.0										100.0