Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#125
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#104
Pace60.9#357
Improvement+1.9#54

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#139
First Shot+1.8#129
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#217
Layup/Dunks+0.6#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#235
Freethrows-1.8#293
Improvement+4.3#2

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#127
First Shot-1.2#210
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#50
Layups/Dunks-2.1#252
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#78
Freethrows+0.0#182
Improvement-2.3#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.3% 22.1% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.5 13.0
.500 or above 88.7% 96.0% 87.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.4% 92.9% 87.3%
Conference Champion 24.1% 31.4% 22.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round17.3% 22.1% 16.2%
Second Round1.9% 2.9% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 19.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 36 - 58 - 10
Quad 411 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 321 Loyola Maryland W 67-56 86%     1 - 0 +1.9 -6.3 +9.0
  Sat, Nov 8 8 @Houston L 48-65 4%     1 - 1 +5.7 -8.9 +13.2
  Fri, Nov 14 218 Norfolk St. W 51-41 80%     2 - 1 +3.4 -12.5 +17.7
  Tue, Nov 18 177 @James Madison L 75-81 53%     2 - 2 -4.4 +10.6 -15.8
  Mon, Nov 24 116 Rhode Island W 62-55 47%     3 - 2 +10.3 +0.0 +11.3
  Tue, Nov 25 94 Liberty W 72-69 38%     4 - 2 +8.6 +7.8 +1.1
  Wed, Nov 26 103 UC San Diego L 73-87 41%     4 - 3 -9.3 +7.2 -17.8
  Wed, Dec 3 150 Cornell W 93-80 69%     5 - 3 +10.2 +16.5 -6.1
  Sun, Dec 7 62 @Central Florida L 69-78 19%    
  Tue, Dec 16 18 @Kansas L 59-76 6%    
  Mon, Dec 22 256 Sacred Heart W 79-68 84%    
  Mon, Dec 29 119 @William & Mary L 72-76 37%    
  Wed, Dec 31 208 @Hampton W 68-65 59%    
  Sat, Jan 3 207 Monmouth W 72-64 77%    
  Thu, Jan 8 139 Hofstra W 68-64 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 228 @Northeastern W 70-67 62%    
  Thu, Jan 15 175 College of Charleston W 72-65 73%    
  Sat, Jan 17 267 Drexel W 71-60 84%    
  Thu, Jan 22 184 @Elon W 73-72 54%    
  Sat, Jan 24 299 @N.C. A&T W 72-65 74%    
  Thu, Jan 29 109 UNC Wilmington W 67-65 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 208 Hampton W 71-62 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 139 @Hofstra L 65-67 42%    
  Thu, Feb 12 221 Stony Brook W 72-63 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 207 @Monmouth W 69-67 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 267 @Drexel W 68-63 67%    
  Thu, Feb 26 184 Elon W 76-69 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 217 Campbell W 75-66 78%    
  Tue, Mar 3 221 @Stony Brook W 69-66 61%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.3 6.2 6.8 4.6 1.9 0.4 24.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.8 7.2 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.1 6.3 3.1 0.7 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 5.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.5 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 5.4 8.1 10.9 13.2 14.5 14.0 11.8 8.7 4.9 1.9 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.6% 1.9    1.8 0.1
16-2 94.3% 4.6    4.1 0.6 0.0
15-3 78.8% 6.8    4.8 1.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 52.6% 6.2    3.1 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0
13-5 23.7% 3.3    1.0 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.1% 24.1 15.2 6.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 50.8% 50.0% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.6%
17-1 1.9% 44.5% 44.3% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 0.3%
16-2 4.9% 36.0% 36.0% 12.2 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 3.1
15-3 8.7% 31.6% 31.5% 0.0% 12.5 0.1 1.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.9 0.1%
14-4 11.8% 26.7% 26.7% 12.8 0.0 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 8.6
13-5 14.0% 21.8% 21.8% 13.0 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.6 0.0 10.9
12-6 14.5% 16.9% 16.9% 13.2 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 12.1
11-7 13.2% 11.9% 11.9% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 11.6
10-8 10.9% 7.2% 7.2% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 10.1
9-9 8.1% 5.3% 5.3% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.7
8-10 5.4% 3.8% 3.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2
7-11 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.9
6-12 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.4 7.1 3.2 0.8 0.1 82.7 0.0%