Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
78 Belmont 31.1%   12   21 - 4 12 - 3 +7.4      +6.3 52 +1.1 135 71.9 91 +9.4 62 +9.1 1
94 Illinois St. 16.9%   15 - 9 8 - 6 +5.3      +1.6 124 +3.7 70 66.8 235 +3.0 115 +2.1 7
100 Northern Iowa 16.2%   15 - 9 8 - 6 +5.2      -2.3 230 +7.5 27 58.6 365 +3.9 103 +3.0 5
112 Murray St. 11.8%   18 - 8 10 - 5 +3.5      +5.4 64 -1.9 234 78.1 13 +5.5 90 +5.3 3
120 Bradley 10.0%   16 - 9 10 - 5 +2.8      +1.8 122 +1.0 136 68.3 196 +3.4 108 +5.4 2
127 Southern Illinois 3.9%   10 - 14 5 - 9 +2.0      -3.1 259 +5.1 53 72.2 84 -0.2 163 -0.6 8
137 Illinois-Chicago 5.8%   11 - 12 8 - 6 +1.4      -1.0 190 +2.4 101 66.6 238 +0.3 156 +4.5 4
155 Valparaiso 3.3%   12 - 12 7 - 7 +0.1      -1.7 213 +1.8 120 64.8 281 +0.7 152 +2.7 6
177 Drake 1.0%   10 - 14 6 - 9 -1.1      +0.9 142 -1.9 235 67.3 221 -2.1 205 -0.6 9
197 Indiana St. 0.6%   8 - 15 3 - 11 -2.5      -1.9 219 -0.6 190 72.1 87 -4.8 241 -6.5 10
273 Evansville 0.1%   4 - 19 2 - 12 -6.3      -4.7 297 -1.6 227 67.5 214 -7.7 296 -8.0 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Feb 9 78 Belmont 84 120 Bradley 95   
Mon, Feb 9 177 Drake 76 155 Valparaiso 81   
Mon, Feb 9 197 Indiana St. 65 127 Southern Illinois 80   
Mon, Feb 9 273 Evansville 88 94 Illinois St. 80   
Mon, Feb 9 112 Murray St. 60 100 Northern Iowa 89   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 12 78 Belmont 70 100 Northern Iowa 65 69%   
Thu, Feb 12 177 Drake 73 137 Illinois-Chicago 72 52%   
Thu, Feb 12 94 Illinois St. 73 155 Valparaiso 64 78%   
Thu, Feb 12 197 Indiana St. 83 112 Murray St. 86 61%   
Thu, Feb 12 273 Evansville 64 127 Southern Illinois 75 85%   
Sun, Feb 15 120 Bradley 71 127 Southern Illinois 73 58%   
Sun, Feb 15 78 Belmont 88 112 Murray St. 87 54%   
Sun, Feb 15 94 Illinois St. 70 137 Illinois-Chicago 69 53%   
Sun, Feb 15 197 Indiana St. 69 155 Valparaiso 74 70%   
Sun, Feb 15 177 Drake 60 100 Northern Iowa 69 81%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 1.0 97.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 4.3 1.0 17.4 18.7 16.9 18.2 17.2 8.7 1.9 0.1
Northern Iowa 3.9 2.0 18.0 24.4 21.6 16.8 10.9 4.4 1.5 0.4
Murray St. 2.8 7.6 43.9 25.6 13.5 7.0 2.2 0.3
Bradley 3.1 4.0 39.9 22.7 16.0 10.5 5.3 1.5 0.1
Southern Illinois 7.6 0.2 1.3 3.5 9.0 23.5 41.0 20.5 1.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 4.4 0.7 15.9 18.3 18.3 18.6 16.1 9.3 2.5 0.3
Valparaiso 6.1 0.0 2.2 5.4 9.2 14.4 22.5 30.9 12.2 3.3 0.0
Drake 8.2 0.0 0.5 1.2 4.9 13.6 28.8 50.0 1.0
Indiana St. 10.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 6.5 82.9 9.1
Evansville 10.7 0.1 0.6 24.6 74.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 16 - 4 25 - 5 0.1 1.6 13.0 32.4 37.6 15.4
Illinois St. 11 - 9 18 - 12 0.8 5.3 17.2 28.4 28.9 15.8 3.7
Northern Iowa 12 - 8 19 - 11 0.3 3.3 11.9 24.9 32.9 21.3 5.4
Murray St. 13 - 7 21 - 10 1.3 11.8 30.1 34.1 18.7 4.1
Bradley 12 - 8 18 - 12 4.0 17.1 31.0 29.2 15.3 3.4
Southern Illinois 9 - 11 14 - 16 0.3 3.2 11.9 27.2 32.4 20.2 4.8
Illinois-Chicago 11 - 9 14 - 15 1.0 6.3 17.0 28.5 27.7 15.0 4.4
Valparaiso 10 - 10 15 - 15 1.4 8.7 22.1 31.5 24.8 10.1 1.5
Drake 8 - 12 12 - 17 9.8 26.7 33.1 22.0 7.4 1.0
Indiana St. 5 - 15 10 - 19 12.1 29.7 30.9 19.3 6.6 1.3 0.1
Evansville 3 - 17 5 - 24 22.4 38.3 26.9 10.2 2.0 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 97.4% 87.0 8.6 1.6 0.2 0.0
Illinois St. 1.0% 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 2.0% 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 7.6% 1.4 4.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
Bradley 4.0% 0.7 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Southern Illinois
Illinois-Chicago 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0
Drake
Indiana St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 31.1% 30.7% 0.5% 12   0.0 0.3 14.3 16.1 0.4 68.9 0.7%
Illinois St. 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 2.1 11.8 2.9 0.1 83.2 0.0%
Northern Iowa 16.2% 16.1% 0.0% 1.7 11.0 3.3 0.2 83.8 0.0%
Murray St. 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.7 8.2 2.7 0.2 88.2 0.0%
Bradley 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.1 4.1 4.9 0.9 0.0 90.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.2 96.1 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.1 94.2 0.0%
Valparaiso 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 96.7 0.0%
Drake 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 99.1 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.5 0.5
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.6 0.2
2nd Round 11.6% 0.1 88.4 11.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 31.1% 0.5% 30.9% 5.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 16.9% 0.0% 16.9% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 16.2% 0.0% 16.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 11.8% 0.0% 11.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 3.9% 0.1% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 5.8% 0.0% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 3.3% 0.0% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%