Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
69 Belmont 29.5%   11   11 - 1 2 - 0 24 - 6 15 - 5 +8.0      +5.1 66 +3.0 87 75.2 46 +11.4 52 +11.6 5
82 Illinois St. 21.4%   9 - 3 2 - 0 21 - 9 14 - 6 +6.9      +4.4 73 +2.5 102 66.4 264 +7.1 86 +17.1 1
93 Northern Iowa 17.1%   8 - 3 1 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +6.0      -1.7 212 +7.7 21 60.6 359 +6.3 89 +15.8 2
100 Murray St. 14.4%   10 - 3 2 - 0 21 - 10 13 - 7 +5.3      +5.6 62 -0.3 175 77.4 26 +8.0 78 +13.9 4
108 Bradley 9.9%   8 - 4 2 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 8 +3.9      +0.8 143 +3.2 82 67.9 227 +2.9 131 +15.0 3
130 Southern Illinois 4.4%   5 - 7 0 - 2 14 - 16 9 - 11 +2.0      0.0 167 +2.0 110 73.2 79 -0.6 173 -10.0 8
143 Drake 3.8%   5 - 6 1 - 1 14 - 15 10 - 10 +1.2      +1.4 132 -0.3 172 63.5 328 -2.6 204 +3.1 6
200 Illinois-Chicago 0.7%   3 - 8 0 - 2 10 - 19 7 - 13 -2.4      -0.8 187 -1.6 217 69.4 188 -8.7 302 -9.5 7
201 Indiana St. 0.8%   5 - 6 0 - 2 11 - 18 6 - 14 -2.5      -2.7 242 +0.2 151 75.0 50 -2.9 213 -11.4 9
219 Valparaiso 0.4%   5 - 6 0 - 1 11 - 19 6 - 14 -3.7      -3.2 256 -0.5 180 67.4 237 -5.0 245 -12.9 10
252 Evansville 0.2%   2 - 9 0 - 2 7 - 22 5 - 15 -5.2      -4.7 296 -0.5 179 68.4 218 -8.1 294 -14.6 11




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Dec 21 108 Bradley 73 130 Southern Illinois 69   
Sun, Dec 21 183 Charlotte 88 200 Illinois-Chicago 76   
Sun, Dec 21 82 Illinois St. 85 201 Indiana St. 65   
Sun, Dec 21 100 Murray St. 85 219 Valparaiso 79   
Sun, Dec 21 143 Drake 66 252 Evansville 65   
Mon, Dec 22 44 St. Mary's 63 93 Northern Iowa 58   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 2.4 39.2 23.9 15.5 10.2 6.0 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 2.7 30.9 23.4 18.4 12.4 7.8 4.2 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 3.3 21.4 20.0 18.1 15.5 11.5 7.1 3.9 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 3.4 18.1 19.3 18.4 17.3 12.7 7.8 4.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Bradley 4.0 11.4 14.3 17.1 17.8 16.7 11.4 6.8 3.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
Southern Illinois 6.2 1.3 3.3 5.9 10.0 14.5 19.8 19.2 12.8 7.8 4.0 1.5
Drake 6.0 2.0 4.2 6.8 11.0 15.6 19.2 18.1 11.8 6.9 3.2 1.1
Illinois-Chicago 8.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.5 8.4 14.1 20.0 20.2 17.3 11.7
Indiana St. 8.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.1 8.2 13.5 19.6 20.8 18.1 12.2
Valparaiso 8.8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 5.9 11.0 16.6 20.8 22.3 18.4
Evansville 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 5.6 11.3 18.1 25.3 35.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.2 8.3 12.2 15.4 16.6 15.3 11.7 6.8 2.7 0.6
Illinois St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.8 6.7 10.4 14.0 16.2 15.6 13.4 9.2 5.1 1.7 0.4
Northern Iowa 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.2 4.0 6.8 9.7 12.7 14.6 14.8 13.4 10.0 6.1 3.0 0.9 0.2
Murray St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.4 7.0 10.9 14.3 15.3 15.0 12.8 9.0 4.9 2.2 0.6 0.1
Bradley 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.2 7.2 10.0 13.4 15.3 15.2 12.6 9.0 5.8 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
Southern Illinois 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.0 6.6 9.9 13.2 14.8 14.9 12.9 9.6 6.1 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Drake 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 6.0 9.3 12.4 13.9 14.9 13.1 10.8 7.2 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 7 - 13 0.2 1.0 3.2 6.3 10.4 13.8 15.3 14.9 12.7 9.3 6.3 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 6 - 14 0.2 1.1 3.3 6.5 10.7 14.4 15.9 15.0 12.1 8.8 5.8 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 6 - 14 0.4 2.2 5.4 9.5 13.3 16.1 15.3 13.0 10.1 6.7 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Evansville 5 - 15 1.3 5.2 10.6 15.7 17.2 16.4 13.2 9.3 5.7 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 39.2% 27.0 9.6 2.1 0.4 0.0
Illinois St. 30.9% 20.5 7.9 2.1 0.4 0.0
Northern Iowa 21.4% 13.2 6.2 1.7 0.3 0.0
Murray St. 18.1% 10.9 5.4 1.5 0.3 0.0
Bradley 11.4% 6.3 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.0
Southern Illinois 1.3% 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Drake 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Evansville 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 29.5% 27.8% 1.7% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 13.4 12.5 1.2 0.1 70.5 2.4%
Illinois St. 21.4% 21.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 6.8 10.9 2.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 78.6 0.4%
Northern Iowa 17.1% 16.8% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.6 9.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 82.9 0.3%
Murray St. 14.4% 14.1% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.0 8.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 85.6 0.4%
Bradley 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 5.0 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 90.1 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 95.6 0.0%
Drake 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 96.2 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.3 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.2 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 29.5% 1.4% 28.8% 7.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 21.4% 0.3% 21.2% 4.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 17.1% 0.2% 16.9% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 14.4% 0.3% 14.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 9.9% 0.0% 9.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.4% 0.2% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 3.8% 0.2% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.3 2.7 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 98.1 1.5
2nd Round 18.7% 0.2 81.3 18.6 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0