Bradley
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.7 #119
Expected Predictive Rating +3.3 #111
Pace 69.0 #179
Improvement +0.0 #190

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #131 C C- A- B D+
Defense #125 C C+ A- D+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #294 1.22 #111 -1.3 #234
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #135 0.64 #327 -0.6 #205
Three Pointers 43% #146 1.04 #156 +1.5 #131
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #190 -0.4 #190
Freethrows 19.4 #95 75% #103 14.5 #83
Second Chance 27.2% #276 1.07 #146 0.29 #238
Turnovers 13.8% #38
Total Offense +1.3 #131

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #338 1.15 #174 +4.5 #45
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #33 0.76 #178 -2.6 #343
Three Pointers 42% #151 1.11 #302 -2.5 #289
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #193 -0.6 #194
Freethrows 19.8 #296 71% #139 14.2 #281
Second Chance 30.7% #192 0.96 #62 0.29 #111
Turnovers 19.8% #34
Total Defense +1.4 #125

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #257 -2.8% #20
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.3% #172 4.0% #254
Possession Length 16.9 #133 17.3 #173
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #172 0.15 #119
Improvement +2.2 #68 -2.3 #306

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 9.9% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.6 12.8
.500 or above 96.2% 98.4% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 97.0% 85.5%
Conference Champion 9.0% 11.5% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.0% 9.9% 7.1%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 68.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 62 - 6
Quad 38 - 510 - 12
Quad 49 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 136 St. Bonaventure L 63 - 69 55% -4  0 - 1 -4 -7 B- F A- +2 B+ A A
 Sat, Nov 8 322 Central Michigan W 85 - 54 92% +14  1 - 1 +18 +7 A+ F C+ +11 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 226 Tennessee Martin L 67 - 78 82% +9  1 - 2 -18 -10 F D+ F -8 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 101 @San Francisco L 64 - 75 32% -2  1 - 3 -3 -3 F D C -0 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 309 Umass Lowell W 87 - 77 90% -0  2 - 3 -1 +12 B+ A D -13 D C D+
 Mon, Nov 24 214 Princeton W 88 - 64 72% +8  3 - 3 +21 +15 A+ F B- +6 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 109 UC San Diego L 77 - 87 46% -3  3 - 4 -6 +6 C A+ F -12 B- F D+
 Wed, Nov 26 94 Liberty W 74 - 64 39% +10  4 - 4 +16 +8 B+ A+ F +9 B+ A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 141 Washington St. W 64 - 60 67% -3  5 - 4 +2 -10 F C+ A+ +12 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 318 Northern Illinois W 84 - 55 92% +14  6 - 4 +16 +4 B+ F A+ +12 A+ D+ B
 Thu, Dec 18 188 @Indiana St. W 108 - 99 3OT 56% +1  7 - 4 1 - 0 +10 +8 C- C A+ -0 B- A F
 Sun, Dec 21 146 Southern Illinois W 73 - 69 68% +4  8 - 4 2 - 0 +2 +0 C B- F +1 A- B- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 271 Evansville W 76 - 68 86% -2  9 - 4 3 - 0 -1 +3 D F A+ -4 B- D- F
 Thu, Jan 1 82 @Belmont L 78 - 88 24% -3  9 - 5 3 - 1 +0 +9 A+ C F -9 C F A+
 Sun, Jan 4 97 @Murray St. L 66 - 86 30% -14  9 - 6 3 - 2 -12 -4 F D+ A+ -8 F B B+
 Wed, Jan 7 158 Drake W 93 - 66 71% +20  10 - 6 4 - 2 +24 +14 A+ B- A +9 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 110 Northern Iowa W 75 - 69 58% +2  11 - 6 5 - 2 +7 +11 B+ C A+ -4 B C F
 Tue, Jan 13 271 @Evansville W 94 - 90 OT 71% -3  12 - 6 6 - 2 +1 +15 B D- A+ -15 F C- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 90 @Illinois St. L 62 - 88 26% -13  12 - 7 6 - 3 -17 -3 F D+ D+ -15 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 188 Indiana St. W 75 - 68 76% -3  13 - 7 7 - 3 +2 -1 F D+ A+ +3 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 151 Illinois-Chicago W 74 - 69 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 158 @Drake L 72 - 73 49%
 Tue, Feb 3 167 Valparaiso W 74 - 67 73%
 Fri, Feb 6 110 @Northern Iowa L 62 - 66 35%
 Mon, Feb 9 82 Belmont L 77 - 78 45%
 Sun, Feb 15 146 @Southern Illinois L 72 - 73 46%
 Wed, Feb 18 167 @Valparaiso W 71 - 70 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 90 Illinois St. L 72 - 73 48%
 Tue, Feb 24 151 @Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 72 47%
 Sun, Mar 1 97 Murray St. W 83 - 82 52%
Totals 18 - 12 12 - 8 +3 +1 C C- A- +1 C C+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.8 1.9 0.4 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 6.4 7.9 2.3 0.2 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 9.4 11.0 2.8 0.2 0.0 24.8 3rd
4th 1.0 8.6 10.2 2.5 0.1 22.4 4th
5th 0.3 4.4 6.8 1.4 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 4.1 1.5 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 1.1 0.1 3.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 1.4 5.0 10.7 18.3 22.1 20.3 13.3 6.3 2.1 0.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-4 90.2% 1.9    1.4 0.5 0.0
15-5 60.6% 3.8    1.5 1.9 0.4 0.0
14-6 18.9% 2.5    0.4 1.1 0.8 0.2
13-7 1.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 3.6 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.4% 28.8% 28.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3
16-4 2.1% 18.8% 18.8% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.7
15-5 6.3% 14.3% 14.3% 12.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.4
14-6 13.3% 13.6% 13.6% 12.4 0.0 1.1 0.7 0.1 11.5
13-7 20.3% 10.8% 10.8% 12.6 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.1 18.1
12-8 22.1% 8.6% 8.6% 12.8 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 20.2
11-9 18.3% 6.1% 6.1% 13.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 17.2
10-10 10.7% 4.1% 4.1% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.3
9-11 5.0% 2.2% 2.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.9
8-12 1.4% 2.5% 2.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 12.6 91.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.4 4.8 42.9 52.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%