UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.9 #109
Expected Predictive Rating +6.0 #89
Pace 67.7 #219
Improvement -5.1 #352

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #111 B C B D B+
Defense #122 B- C C- B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #88 1.22 #109 +3.3 #80
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #326 0.80 #114 -2.7 #309
Three Pointers 45% #95 1.05 #143 +2.9 #88
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #80 +3.5 #80
Freethrows 16.1 #271 69% #293 11.1 #291
Second Chance 28.2% #251 1.11 #107 0.31 #190
Turnovers 14.5% #64
Total Offense +2.5 #111

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #305 1.07 #73 +4.2 #55
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #230 0.78 #218 +0.5 #160
Three Pointers 47% #36 0.97 #120 -2.2 #281
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #101 +2.4 #101
Freethrows 15.5 #65 68% #28 10.5 #42
Second Chance 30.7% #188 1.06 #206 0.32 #203
Turnovers 15.7% #226
Total Defense +1.4 #122

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #36 -0.1% #147
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.2% #107 -4.5% #90
Possession Length 16.5 #96 18.3 #309
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #144 0.16 #135
Improvement -4.3 #355 -0.8 #246

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.9% 26.8% 21.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 98.6% 97.9%
Conference Champion 24.0% 24.7% 20.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.9% 26.8% 21.5%
Second Round2.4% 2.6% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 82.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 312 - 313 - 5
Quad 411 - 423 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 298 Houston Christian W 78 - 60 91% +13  1 - 0 +7 -2 B- F D+ +9 C A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 143 @Fresno St. W 78 - 73 50% +4  2 - 0 +9 +9 A+ B+ F -0 D+ B C+
 Sat, Nov 15 183 Idaho W 75 - 67 79% -3  3 - 0 +3 -1 C+ F C- +4 A+ C+ C
 Mon, Nov 24 140 Temple W 91 - 76 60% +9  4 - 0 +16 +20 A+ F A+ -3 A F F
 Tue, Nov 25 119 Bradley W 87 - 77 54% +3  5 - 0 +13 +16 C A+ A+ -3 B- F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 157 Towson W 87 - 73 64% +13  6 - 0 +14 +25 A+ C A+ -10 C C F
 Tue, Dec 2 80 @Nevada L 70 - 76 26% -4  6 - 1 +4 +7 F A+ A+ -3 C- D C
 Sat, Dec 6 250 @Long Beach St. W 80 - 74 71% +4  7 - 1 1 - 0 +4 +9 A+ F B- -5 D+ B F
 Sat, Dec 13 172 Tulane W 93 - 67 68% +16  8 - 1 +25 +10 A- D B+ +12 A A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 155 @Loyola Marymount W 67 - 57 53% +3  9 - 1 +13 -2 B+ C F +15 B- A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 209 San Diego W 82 - 72 83% -7 
 Thu, Jan 1 281 @Cal Poly L 65 - 67 77% +2  9 - 2 1 - 1 -6 -6 F B+ D+ +0 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 3 106 Hawaii W 83 - 73 59% +7  10 - 2 2 - 1 +11 +18 A+ A+ A+ -6 C+ D F
 Thu, Jan 8 229 Cal St. Fullerton L 71 - 88 84% -4  10 - 3 2 - 2 -24 -4 F A+ F -20 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 293 @UC Riverside W 69 - 66 79% -1  11 - 3 3 - 2 -2 -0 C+ C- F -1 A F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 207 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 84 82% -2  11 - 4 3 - 3 -11 +1 F C+ A+ -11 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 83 - 62 80% +13  12 - 4 4 - 3 +16 +8 C D A+ +8 C+ A+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 181 @UC Davis W 80 - 74 59% +1  13 - 4 5 - 3 +8 +3 B+ F F +4 A+ A- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 123 UC Irvine W 73 - 69 65%
 Thu, Jan 29 144 UC Santa Barbara W 77 - 71 71%
 Sat, Jan 31 207 @Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 78 63%
 Thu, Feb 5 250 Long Beach St. W 79 - 67 86%
 Sun, Feb 8 106 @Hawaii L 69 - 73 37%
 Thu, Feb 12 181 UC Davis W 79 - 71 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 293 UC Riverside W 80 - 66 91%
 Sat, Feb 21 123 @UC Irvine L 70 - 72 44%
 Thu, Feb 26 299 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 67 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 281 Cal Poly W 88 - 74 89%
 Thu, Mar 5 229 @Cal St. Fullerton W 81 - 76 67%
 Sat, Mar 7 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 74 - 75 50%
Totals 22 - 8 13 - 7 +4 +2 B C B +1 B- C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.1 9.7 6.7 1.7 24.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 7.4 13.2 6.6 0.8 28.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 7.6 11.4 4.4 0.3 24.9 3rd
4th 0.7 4.2 6.4 1.8 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.1 0.9 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.8 8.8 15.9 21.4 22.8 16.6 7.5 1.7 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 1.7    1.6 0.1
16-4 89.3% 6.7    5.0 1.6 0.1
15-5 58.5% 9.7    4.4 4.5 0.8 0.0
14-6 22.4% 5.1    1.3 2.4 1.2 0.2
13-7 3.7% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.0% 24.0 12.3 8.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.7% 48.7% 48.7% 11.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9
16-4 7.5% 47.0% 47.0% 12.1 0.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 4.0
15-5 16.6% 37.7% 37.7% 12.4 0.1 3.6 2.4 0.2 10.3
14-6 22.8% 31.2% 31.2% 12.6 0.0 3.0 3.6 0.5 15.7
13-7 21.4% 21.0% 21.0% 12.8 0.0 1.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 16.9
12-8 15.9% 14.8% 14.8% 13.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 13.6
11-9 8.8% 10.4% 10.4% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 7.9
10-10 3.8% 8.0% 8.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.5
9-11 1.2% 4.7% 4.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-12 0.3% 4.5% 4.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 12.6 74.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 11.4 2.1 59.6 38.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%