Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#279
Expected Predictive Rating-8.9#306
Pace62.3#348
Improvement+0.2#168

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#196
First Shot+0.0#173
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#255
Layup/Dunks+3.7#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
Freethrows-1.8#291
Improvement+1.9#56

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#333
First Shot-5.9#348
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#145
Layups/Dunks-5.7#346
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#316
Freethrows+3.4#20
Improvement-1.8#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 2.4% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.0 15.4
.500 or above 6.4% 31.0% 6.4%
.500 or above in Conference 18.3% 33.3% 18.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 21.5% 7.1% 21.5%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 2.4% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 48 - 810 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 83 @UC San Diego L 60-78 7%     0 - 1 -8.1 -7.9 -0.4
  Thu, Nov 13 359 Louisiana Monroe W 72-61 86%     1 - 1 -6.9 -10.2 +3.2
  Tue, Nov 25 267 Bellarmine L 69-74 48%     1 - 2 -10.8 +0.0 -11.5
  Wed, Nov 26 355 @The Citadel W 72-65 67%     2 - 2 -3.7 +6.1 -8.5
  Sat, Nov 29 213 @Georgia Southern L 62-80 28%     2 - 3 -18.4 -10.1 -9.1
  Tue, Dec 2 146 @North Texas L 75-77 17%     2 - 4 +2.0 +18.1 -16.3
  Sat, Dec 6 241 @New Orleans W 85-76 32%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +7.4 +15.4 -7.5
  Sat, Dec 13 266 SE Louisiana L 71-74 OT 59%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -11.7 -4.1 -7.6
  Mon, Dec 15 70 McNeese St. L 68-78 15%     3 - 6 1 - 2 -5.1 +9.1 -15.9
  Wed, Dec 17 234 @Nicholls St. L 64-79 32%     3 - 7 1 - 3 -16.4 -7.6 -9.0
  Mon, Dec 29 3 @Iowa St. L 57-89 0.1%   
  Sat, Jan 3 162 @Incarnate Word L 67-76 20%    
  Mon, Jan 5 218 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-68 51%    
  Sat, Jan 10 132 @Stephen F. Austin L 64-75 15%    
  Mon, Jan 12 253 @Lamar L 65-69 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 302 East Texas A&M W 75-70 67%    
  Mon, Jan 19 273 Northwestern St. W 72-69 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 191 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72-73 45%    
  Mon, Jan 26 162 Incarnate Word L 70-73 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 218 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65-71 30%    
  Mon, Feb 2 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 69-76 25%    
  Sat, Feb 7 266 @SE Louisiana L 66-70 38%    
  Mon, Feb 9 70 @McNeese St. L 62-79 6%    
  Sat, Feb 14 241 New Orleans W 75-74 55%    
  Mon, Feb 16 234 Nicholls St. W 72-71 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 273 @Northwestern St. L 69-72 39%    
  Mon, Feb 23 302 @East Texas A&M L 72-73 45%    
  Sat, Feb 28 132 Stephen F. Austin L 67-72 32%    
  Mon, Mar 2 253 Lamar W 68-66 56%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 8 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.1 0.7 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.4 1.0 0.1 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.6 1.7 0.1 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.5 6.4 2.8 0.2 13.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 3.4 6.4 3.6 0.4 0.0 14.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 5.4 3.4 0.6 0.0 14.0 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.8 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 13.3 12th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.9 8.0 11.5 14.2 15.1 13.8 11.0 7.8 5.2 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-4 0.0%
17-5 27.3% 0.0    0.0
16-6 10.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 4.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 0.0% 0.0
18-4 0.0% 0.0
17-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-6 0.2% 10.5% 10.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-7 0.6% 10.3% 10.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-8 1.5% 6.2% 6.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
13-9 3.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0
12-10 5.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.3 0.1 0.0 5.1
11-11 7.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 7.7
10-12 11.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.9
9-13 13.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.7
8-14 15.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.1
7-15 14.2% 14.2
6-16 11.5% 11.5
5-17 8.0% 8.0
4-18 4.9% 4.9
3-19 2.3% 2.3
2-20 0.8% 0.8
1-21 0.2% 0.2
0-22
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%