Preseason Rankings
Nicholls St.
Southland
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#233
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.9#123
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#269
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#194
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 17.4% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 12.6 14.0
.500 or above 36.8% 80.2% 36.5%
.500 or above in Conference 58.5% 88.3% 58.3%
Conference Champion 6.0% 19.8% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.9% 0.0% 5.9%
First Four0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round6.1% 17.4% 6.0%
Second Round0.3% 1.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kentucky (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 411 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 7   @ Kentucky L 63-89 1%    
  Nov 07, 2025 322   @ Eastern Illinois W 68-65 59%    
  Nov 12, 2025 261   @ Valparaiso L 71-73 44%    
  Nov 15, 2025 127   @ Murray St. L 63-72 20%    
  Nov 22, 2025 73   @ Oklahoma St. L 68-83 10%    
  Nov 28, 2025 116   @ Tulane L 66-76 18%    
  Dec 02, 2025 24   @ Creighton L 61-83 3%    
  Dec 06, 2025 209   Incarnate Word W 70-68 56%    
  Dec 17, 2025 289   Houston Christian W 70-64 70%    
  Dec 21, 2025 219   @ Pacific L 68-72 38%    
  Dec 29, 2025 221   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-71 38%    
  Dec 31, 2025 270   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 03, 2026 333   East Texas A&M W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 05, 2026 255   Northwestern St. W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 10, 2026 312   @ New Orleans W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 12, 2026 96   @ McNeese St. L 62-74 15%    
  Jan 17, 2026 218   Lamar W 67-65 58%    
  Jan 19, 2026 212   Stephen F. Austin W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 24, 2026 243   @ SE Louisiana L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 26, 2026 312   New Orleans W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 31, 2026 333   @ East Texas A&M W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 02, 2026 255   @ Northwestern St. L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 07, 2026 221   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 09, 2026 270   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 14, 2026 209   @ Incarnate Word L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 16, 2026 289   @ Houston Christian W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 21, 2026 212   @ Stephen F. Austin L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 23, 2026 218   @ Lamar L 64-68 39%    
  Feb 28, 2026 243   SE Louisiana W 72-68 62%    
  Mar 02, 2026 96   McNeese St. L 65-71 31%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 11 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.4 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.1 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.2 2.4 0.5 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.4 2.2 3.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.5 6.0 6.8 8.1 9.3 9.7 9.4 9.4 8.4 6.9 5.7 3.8 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
21-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
20-2 93.9% 0.8    0.7 0.1
19-3 78.4% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
18-4 56.5% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.1
17-5 30.5% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-6 14.8% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-7 3.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 3.7 1.8 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.0% 79.8% 79.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
21-1 0.2% 66.6% 66.6% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
20-2 0.8% 49.5% 49.5% 12.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4
19-3 1.5% 36.6% 36.6% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
18-4 2.6% 25.1% 25.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.0
17-5 3.8% 24.6% 24.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 2.9
16-6 5.7% 18.4% 18.4% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 4.7
15-7 6.9% 12.2% 12.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 6.1
14-8 8.4% 7.8% 7.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 7.7
13-9 9.4% 3.7% 3.7% 16.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.1
12-10 9.4% 2.1% 2.1% 18.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.2
11-11 9.7% 1.3% 1.3% 17.4 0.0 0.1 9.6
10-12 9.3% 0.7% 0.7% 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.2
9-13 8.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.1
8-14 6.8% 6.8
7-15 6.0% 6.0
6-16 4.5% 4.5
5-17 3.0% 3.0
4-18 1.9% 1.9
3-19 1.1% 1.1
2-20 0.5% 0.5
1-21 0.2% 0.2
0-22 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.5 0.7 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%