SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.2 #272
Expected Predictive Rating -9.9 #325
Pace 66.5 #249
Improvement +2.6 #62

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #327 F D- C- C D+
Defense #166 C- D+ A- F C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #241 1.16 #166 -1.2 #227
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #116 0.63 #330 -0.3 #188
Three Pointers 40% #200 0.84 #350 -4.1 #313
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #334 -5.5 #333
Freethrows 18.9 #121 69% #281 13.1 #159
Second Chance 26.2% #298 0.92 #326 0.24 #330
Turnovers 17.3% #241
Total Offense -6.2 #327

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #244 1.21 #248 +0.4 #159
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #106 0.76 #177 -0.7 #239
Three Pointers 41% #175 1.07 #258 -1.3 #238
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #233 -1.6 #234
Freethrows 22.5 #350 74% #294 16.7 #353
Second Chance 31.3% #216 1.12 #282 0.35 #261
Turnovers 19.5% #39
Total Defense +0.0 #166

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #256 -0.8% #101
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.9% #331 4.0% #255
Possession Length 18.0 #242 17.5 #213
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #244 0.21 #307
Improvement +1.3 #108 +1.2 #105

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.3% 4.0% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 42.2% 30.7% 54.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 52.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 62 - 13
Quad 47 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 62 @Mississippi L 58 - 88 6% -12  0 - 1 -18 -6 D F D+ -14 F D B+
 Fri, Nov 7 312 @Louisiana L 52 - 58 50% -9  0 - 2 -12 -11 F D- D+ -3 F A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 10 113 @Georgia Tech L 60 - 70 12% -0  0 - 3 -4 -13 D- F F +10 A F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 76 @Mississippi St. L 68 - 75 7% -5  0 - 4 +4 -2 D- D- C+ +6 C+ B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 125 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 70 14% +1  0 - 5 -8 -6 F F A- -3 C B+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 363 Gardner-Webb W 76 - 68 88% -2  1 - 5 -11 -8 F F C- -3 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 194 Navy W 69 - 65 35% +7  2 - 5 +2 +3 A+ C- F -1 B- C+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 276 Northwestern St. L 68 - 76 63% +3  2 - 6 0 - 1 -17 -8 F D- C -10 C- F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 298 @Houston Christian W 74 - 71 OT 45% +3  3 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -4 F D- D- +2 C- C- A+
 Mon, Dec 15 308 East Texas A&M L 69 - 70 69% +1  3 - 7 1 - 2 -12 -1 D+ F A+ -11 F A- C
 Fri, Dec 19 43 @LSU L 65 - 78 4% -12  3 - 8 +2 +7 D+ A+ C+ -7 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 30 223 @Incarnate Word L 70 - 79 30% -4  3 - 9 1 - 3 -10 -6 F F C -4 D- F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 105 Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 73 23% -8  3 - 10 1 - 4 -9 -4 D B D- -5 C D+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 211 Lamar W 60 - 52 50% +9  4 - 10 2 - 4 +2 -3 C+ F A+ +6 A+ D- A
 Sat, Jan 10 87 @McNeese St. L 61 - 73 7% -7  4 - 11 2 - 5 -2 -1 D- A- F -3 F A+ A-
 Mon, Jan 12 235 New Orleans L 76 - 79 54% -1  4 - 12 2 - 6 -10 -4 F C+ C+ -7 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 186 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 56 - 68 24% -14  4 - 13 2 - 7 -11 -13 D F F +2 F D- A+
 Mon, Jan 19 218 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 65 - 68 29% -4  4 - 14 2 - 8 -3 -2 C F B- -1 C B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 232 Nicholls St. W 72 - 71 53%
 Mon, Jan 26 87 McNeese St. L 64 - 74 17%
 Sat, Jan 31 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 59 - 73 10%
 Mon, Feb 2 211 @Lamar L 62 - 68 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 298 Houston Christian W 71 - 66 67%
 Mon, Feb 9 223 Incarnate Word W 68 - 67 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 276 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 71 40%
 Mon, Feb 16 308 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 69 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 218 UT Rio Grande Valley W 69 - 68 51%
 Mon, Feb 23 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 66 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 232 @Nicholls St. L 69 - 74 32%
 Mon, Mar 2 235 @New Orleans L 72 - 77 33%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 15 -6 -6 F D- C- +0 C- D+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.2 1.7 0.1 5.4 7th
8th 0.3 3.6 4.1 0.5 8.5 8th
9th 0.2 3.4 7.3 1.8 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.7 9.7 4.3 0.2 18.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 4.7 10.0 6.1 0.5 22.1 11th
12th 0.4 2.8 7.3 9.7 5.7 0.9 0.0 26.8 12th
Total 0.4 2.9 8.0 14.7 19.6 20.4 16.4 10.2 5.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0% 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.1
12-10 0.5% 5.2% 5.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-11 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
10-12 5.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.1
9-13 10.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.2
8-14 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.4
7-15 20.4% 20.4
6-16 19.6% 19.6
5-17 14.7% 14.7
4-18 8.0% 8.0
3-19 2.9% 2.9
2-20 0.4% 0.4
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%