Gardner-Webb
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -18.5 363
Expected Predictive Rating -19.7 362
Pace 73.2 64
Improvement +0.1 179

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ #358 D- D- F+ D B-
Defense F+ #361 F+ D D C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 107 50% 336 -1.4 236
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 251 29% 360 -2.8 311
Three Pointers 42% 169 31% 303 -1.7 241
1st FG Attempt 0.90 338 -5.9 337
Second Chance 23.8% 343 0.94 295 0.23 344
Turnovers 20.8% 349
Freethrows 0.27 299 69% 295 0.18 319
Total Offense -9.8 358

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 100 68% 363 -6.2 352
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 247 36% 115 +0.8 121
Three Pointers 40% 216 38% 337 -2.0 285
1st FG Attempt 1.16 357 -7.4 359
Second Chance 35.6% 338 1.06 235 0.38 317
Turnovers 14.5% 323
Freethrows 0.29 123 72% 154 0.21 124
Total Defense -8.8 361

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.6 98 +0.5 265
Shot Type Accuracy -6.4 352 +6.3 359
Possession Length 16.8 122 16.7 75
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 157 0.21 299
Improvement -1.2 #256 +1.3 #115

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 98% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Home) - 4.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 30 - 70 - 15
Quad 41 - 132 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 71 @Minnesota L 60 - 87 1% -25  0% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -12 F F+ C- D+ -4 F C- B+
 Fri, Nov 7 38 @Clemson L 59 - 97 0% -21  0% 0 - 2 F -21 D -6 C- D+ F+ F -15 C+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 215 @Elon L 84 - 95 5% -16  1% 0 - 3 D -11 C- -1 C D- D+ D- -9 F F B+
 Tue, Nov 18 98 @DePaul L 62 - 93 2% -21  0% 0 - 4 F -23 F -15 F C- D- D+ -5 F A C+
 Sat, Nov 22 128 @Richmond L 67 - 102 2% -28  1% 0 - 5 F -30 F -12 B- F F F -16 F F D-
 Wed, Nov 26 166 Navy L 51 - 84 6% -16  0% 0 - 6 F -33 F -20 F F+ F F -15 D- F B
 Fri, Nov 28 270 SE Louisiana L 68 - 76 13% +2  63% 0 - 7 D- -14 F+ -8 C- B- F D -6 C C+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 113 @UNC Wilmington L 62 - 88 2% -12  18% 0 - 8 F -20 F -10 C- F F F+ -10 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 218 @Queens L 74 - 107 5% -14  0% 0 - 9 F -33 F -10 F A B- F -22 F F D
 Sat, Dec 6 274 Georgia Southern L 84 - 88 19% -3  33% 0 - 10 D- -13 D+ -3 C+ F+ D+ F+ -10 F+ C- F
 Mon, Dec 15 212 Wofford L 57 - 83 12% -11  7% 0 - 11 F -32 F -23 F F F D- -9 C F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 18 @Tennessee L 52 - 94 0% -26  11% 0 - 12 F -21 F -12 D D- C- D- -9 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 256 Charleston Southern L 79 - 89 17% +1  47% 0 - 13 0 - 1 F -18 D+ -4 F+ B D F -14 D- F D
 Sat, Jan 3 130 @Winthrop L 77 - 88 3% +5  72% 0 - 14 0 - 2 D+ -6 B +6 A- F A+ F -12 F A D-
 Wed, Jan 7 92 @High Point L 49 - 104 1% -38  0% 0 - 15 0 - 3 F -47 F -31 F F F F+ -9 C- F D
 Wed, Jan 14 233 Radford L 80 - 89 14% -5  28% 0 - 16 0 - 4 F+ -16 C- -1 D+ C- A- F -15 D C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 272 Presbyterian L 55 - 92 19% -20  0% 0 - 17 0 - 5 F -46 F -25 F D- F F -22 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 261 @Longwood L 56 - 91 8% -17  2% 0 - 18 0 - 6 F -38 F -19 F D+ F F -18 F F D-
 Fri, Jan 23 297 South Carolina Upstate W 67 - 65 23% -3  20% 1 - 18 1 - 6 D -9 F+ -8 D- C- D C -1 B- B C-
 Thu, Jan 29 211 @UNC Asheville L 50 - 69 5% -12  0% 1 - 19 1 - 7 F -19 F -16 F D+ F D -6 F+ C D-
 Wed, Feb 4 261 Longwood L 66 - 86 18% -9  0% 1 - 20 1 - 8 F -29 F -13 D+ F F F -15 F A F
 Sat, Feb 7 272 @Presbyterian L 62 - 68 8% +0  51% 1 - 21 1 - 9 D -9 F+ -8 B- F D C- -2 D- B- C+
 Thu, Feb 12 130 Winthrop L 70 - 87 5%
 Sat, Feb 14 92 @High Point L 67 - 94 1%
 Tue, Feb 17 256 @Charleston Southern L 71 - 87 6%
 Thu, Feb 19 233 @Radford L 73 - 90 5%
 Thu, Feb 26 211 UNC Asheville L 67 - 80 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 297 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 81 10%
Totals 1 - 27 1 - 15 -19 F+ -10 D- D- F+ F+ -9 F+ D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ D- F D F+ 41% 17% 42% B- D- D- D+ D- F+ D D D F+ F C+ D- F+ 42% 18% 40% D+ F+ D- C- D D C+ C C+
0.95 50% 29% 31% -6 +1 0.90 24% 0.9 .23 21% .27 69% .18 1.21 68% 36% 38% +6 +1 1.16 36% 1.1 .38 14% .29 72% .19
Nov
3		 Minnesota F D+ F B- F 37% 29% 33% C F D+ F F+ C- A+ F A+ D+ F A+ C- F 52% 13% 35% F+ F F+ B+ C- B+ F B- F
0.83 53% 7% 35% -11 -1 0.78 25% 0.5 .11 19% .47 59% .28 1.21 84% 17% 35% +12 +2 1.29 38% 0.9 .34 19% .52 67% .34
Nov
7		 Clemson D F A+ C- D 48% 9% 43% A+ C- D C+ D+ F+ A+ F A+ F F A- A+ B- 41% 5% 55% D- C+ F C- F F B+ A A-
0.84 38% 50% 32% -10 +2 0.86 18% 1.0 .18 23% .48 65% .32 1.39 81% 33% 26% +2 +2 1.11 46% 1.1 .51 4% .30 65% .19
Nov
15		 Elon C- A B F+ C 42% 20% 38% C+ C B+ F D- D+ D- F F D- D B- F F 33% 12% 55% B+ F C F F B+ F+ B+ D+
1.11 68% 42% 30% +3 0 1.08 40% 0.7 .29 17% .24 60% .14 1.26 65% 33% 50% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.4 .47 20% .38 65% .25
Nov
18		 DePaul F F F C- F 35% 23% 42% C+ F C+ D- C- D- F+ F F D+ F F B F 43% 18% 38% D F A+ C A C+ A- F B-
0.78 40% 23% 33% -10 -1 0.81 30% 0.8 .23 23% .24 53% .13 1.17 73% 64% 30% +9 +1 1.22 20% 1.2 .23 18% .24 81% .20
Nov
22		 Richmond F B+ F A+ A- 11% 36% 53% F B- F D- F F F F F F F A F F 32% 29% 39% C F F C F D- B+ B A-
0.89 67% 21% 46% +5 -4 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 23% .19 64% .12 1.36 84% 29% 48% +14 -2 1.27 39% 1.0 .39 12% .27 72% .20
Nov
26		 Navy F C+ B+ F F 27% 23% 50% C F F C+ F+ F C- C C- F F B D- F 28% 26% 46% B+ D- F F F B C- F D-
0.77 62% 45% 17% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 24% .24 75% .18 1.26 69% 33% 38% +5 -1 1.09 43% 1.6 .70 21% .34 83% .29
Nov
28		 SE Louisiana F+ C F C+ C- 38% 20% 43% C+ C- F A+ B- F A+ D+ A D F C A+ C- 29% 22% 49% C C D A C+ D F F F
0.95 60% 25% 35% -1 0 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 29% .49 72% .36 1.06 79% 36% 21% -4 -1 0.92 31% 0.7 .22 15% .53 78% .41
Nov
29		 UNC Wilmington F F+ F A D 35% 14% 51% A- C- D- F F F C- B- C F+ F B- F F 32% 21% 47% C- F A+ F C+ F A+ D+ A+
0.90 50% 0% 38% -5 +1 0.94 20% 0.5 .10 20% .24 77% .18 1.27 72% 33% 44% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.4 .34 10% .18 73% .13
Dec
3		 Queens F F F+ F+ F 40% 24% 36% D+ F B A A B- F+ A+ C- F F F F F 36% 19% 45% B- F C F F D B- A+ A
1.01 27% 31% 30% -16 0 0.69 38% 1.3 .49 14% .28 89% .25 1.46 71% 64% 50% +21 0 1.43 31% 1.7 .52 14% .27 59% .16
Dec
6		 Georgia Southern D+ D+ F A+ C- 60% 6% 33% A C+ F B- F+ D+ A+ A A+ F+ B- F+ F D- 51% 7% 42% F F+ B+ F C- F F B D-
1.12 55% 0% 44% +1 +3 1.10 24% 1.1 .28 20% .47 82% .38 1.18 50% 50% 39% 0 +3 1.07 23% 1.4 .31 11% .42 68% .28
Dec
15		 Wofford F D- A F F 48% 22% 30% C- F F D- F F B- A+ A- D- C+ D+ C- C- 39% 20% 41% B C F F F C+ C- A C+
0.82 50% 50% 14% -10 +1 0.83 13% 1.0 .13 23% .32 88% .28 1.20 53% 40% 35% -1 0 1.00 49% 1.2 .57 16% .34 65% .22
Dec
21		 Tennessee F B+ F F D 30% 19% 52% C D F B- D- C- F F F D- F C- F+ F 46% 9% 45% F F C+ C- C+ F A+ B A+
0.74 63% 10% 25% -11 0 0.80 15% 1.0 .15 19% .16 56% .09 1.34 73% 40% 40% +11 +2 1.29 44% 1.1 .47 13% .20 67% .13
Dec
31		 Charleston Southern D+ F B C+ F 48% 13% 38% A F+ C- A+ B D A+ A+ A+ F B- F F D- 48% 12% 40% D D- C- F F D F C- F
1.07 28% 43% 35% -13 +2 0.79 28% 1.4 .38 14% .52 88% .46 1.21 54% 67% 40% +5 +2 1.16 29% 1.4 .41 16% .50 68% .34
Jan
3		 Winthrop B C A+ B+ A 27% 17% 56% C- A- F D F A+ C- F F+ F F A+ B- F 46% 13% 41% D+ F F A+ A D- F F+ F
1.14 57% 67% 38% +8 0 1.17 14% 1.0 .14 10% .31 58% .18 1.30 86% 0% 32% +6 +1 1.17 47% 0.5 .24 12% .54 81% .44
Jan
7		 High Point F F B F F 36% 13% 52% C+ F F B+ F F F F F F+ C+ F B+ C 48% 12% 40% D+ C- F D F D C- D+ D+
0.62 40% 43% 17% -19 +1 0.66 18% 1.3 .23 30% .11 33% .04 1.31 59% 71% 29% +1 +2 1.08 40% 1.3 .50 11% .37 77% .28
Jan
14		 Radford C- A- F F D- 52% 8% 40% A- D+ F A+ C- A- A A A+ F C A+ F D+ 49% 13% 38% F+ D F A+ C- F F D F
1.13 69% 0% 25% -3 +3 1.02 20% 1.7 .33 14% .43 81% .35 1.26 56% 14% 43% +1 +2 1.07 43% 0.7 .31 11% .46 76% .35
Jan
17		 Presbyterian F F F D- F 34% 20% 45% D F F A- D- F A- F B- F D F F F 53% 26% 21% D F C F D- F D+ F D-
0.79 47% 22% 30% -10 0 0.82 18% 1.2 .21 24% .38 60% .23 1.31 64% 50% 45% +10 0 1.23 32% 1.2 .39 13% .36 77% .28
Jan
21		 Longwood F F A+ F F 46% 17% 38% C F B F D+ F F F F F F F B F 37% 23% 40% C+ F F F F D- B+ F+ B
0.80 41% 50% 28% -9 +1 0.85 33% 0.6 .21 30% .25 58% .14 1.30 79% 58% 29% +9 0 1.19 48% 1.3 .61 17% .26 80% .21
Jan
23		 South Carolina Upstate F+ F+ F C- F 60% 12% 29% A D- B- F+ C- D F+ B+ D C A+ A F B- 43% 23% 34% C B- C A- B C- F D F
1.01 48% 17% 33% -8 +3 0.90 34% 0.9 .31 18% .24 77% .18 0.98 40% 27% 44% -5 0 0.91 28% 0.7 .21 17% .40 73% .29
Jan
29		 UNC Asheville F F+ A+ F F 53% 6% 40% A F D- C+ D+ F F F F D F A+ F D- 26% 24% 50% F F+ F A C D- F+ A D+
0.84 48% 67% 21% -11 +3 0.85 24% 1.0 .24 22% .15 57% .09 1.16 73% 10% 48% +7 -1 1.14 37% 0.8 .29 15% .41 62% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Longwood F C- D D+ D- 53% 6% 40% A D+ D+ F F F B- F D+ F F C D F 58% 15% 26% F F A A A F C- A+ B
0.93 60% 33% 32% -1 +3 1.06 25% 0.5 .13 25% .38 60% .23 1.21 77% 38% 36% +12 +2 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 15% .33 60% .20
Feb
7		 Presbyterian F+ C C- A+ B- 54% 17% 29% B B- D- F F D F+ F F C- F B A+ D- 51% 27% 22% D+ D- F A+ B- C+ F C- F
0.98 58% 38% 43% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 17% .23 33% .08 1.07 74% 33% 20% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.7 .28 21% .46 70% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 68.0 26.3 3.7 0.1 98.1 9th
Total 68.0 26.7 4.8 0.5 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13 4.8% 4.8
2-14 26.7% 26.7
1-15 68.0% 68.0
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 60.3%