Queens
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.2 #177
Expected Predictive Rating +1.2 #145
Pace 70.9 #124
Improvement +2.3 #77

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #85 B C+ C+ C+ B
Defense #321 D C- D- D+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #203 1.26 #80 +1.5 #126
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #313 0.85 #56 -1.8 #270
Three Pointers 48% #42 1.01 #189 +3.7 #68
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #86 +3.4 #87
Freethrows 17.8 #184 77% #49 13.6 #131
Second Chance 30.1% #199 1.12 #80 0.34 #134
Turnovers 15.8% #142
Total Offense +3.9 #85

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #29 1.18 #202 -4.2 #316
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #292 0.76 #187 +1.4 #87
Three Pointers 38% #257 1.13 #321 -0.8 #211
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #291 -3.6 #293
Freethrows 19.1 #262 72% #185 13.8 #265
Second Chance 33.8% #308 0.99 #112 0.34 #229
Turnovers 13.9% #324
Total Defense -5.1 #321

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #79 1.9% #337
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.0% #99 5.0% #270
Possession Length 16.2 #71 18.1 #303
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #177 0.18 #219
Improvement -0.5 #204 +2.8 #40

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.8% 24.7% 21.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 98.0% 99.1% 94.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 62.5% 68.3% 45.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round23.7% 24.6% 20.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Away) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 419 - 320 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 130 Winthrop L 74 - 81 38% -2  0 - 1 -5 -1 F B+ F -4 A+ F D+
 Sat, Nov 8 33 @Villanova L 74 - 94 6% -12  0 - 2 -3 +11 A+ F F -14 B- F F
 Tue, Nov 11 118 @Duquesne L 81 - 87 OT 25% -9  0 - 3 -0 -5 C- F D- +5 B- A+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 270 Sacred Heart W 81 - 64 77% +13  1 - 3 +8 +2 A C F +6 B- A+ D-
 Thu, Nov 20 294 UNC Greensboro W 101 - 94 81% +8  2 - 3 -4 +23 A+ B- A+ -27 F F F
 Sun, Nov 23 165 @Furman L 79 - 90 36% -11  2 - 4 -9 +17 B- A+ A+ -27 F B F
 Fri, Nov 28 16 @Virginia L 69 - 94 3% -12  2 - 5 -4 +12 C A+ D- -18 F A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 107 - 74 96% +14  3 - 5 +11 +18 A+ A- C -9 A+ F F
 Fri, Dec 12 359 South Carolina St. W 102 - 78 93% +19  4 - 5 +6 +19 B C A+ -14 F F D
 Sun, Dec 14 63 @Wake Forest L 73 - 111 12% -19  4 - 6 -26 +5 B+ D+ A- -30 F D C-
 Tue, Dec 16 20 @Arkansas L 80 - 108 3% -20  4 - 7 -8 +5 B- C+ F -9 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 27 @Auburn L 65 - 106 5% -30  4 - 8 -23 -5 F C C- -16 F C+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 254 Eastern Kentucky W 91 - 89 74% +1  5 - 8 1 - 0 -6 +12 C A+ A+ -18 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 300 Bellarmine W 98 - 76 82% +10  6 - 8 2 - 0 +11 +13 B+ B C- -2 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 8 292 @Jacksonville W 77 - 51 63% +15  7 - 8 3 - 0 +21 +9 A+ F D- +15 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 350 @North Florida W 89 - 82 78% +2  8 - 8 4 - 0 -2 +4 D B C+ -6 D C F
 Thu, Jan 15 225 @Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 74 48% +6  9 - 8 5 - 0 +10 +9 D+ C A+ +1 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 332 @Stetson W 87 - 81 74% +8  10 - 8 6 - 0 -2 +10 C+ D- A+ -12 F D D-
 Wed, Jan 21 328 North Alabama W 87 - 62 87% +10  11 - 8 7 - 0 +12 +9 B+ B+ F +3 C+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 338 @West Georgia W 85 - 78 75%
 Wed, Jan 28 236 Central Arkansas W 82 - 76 71%
 Sat, Jan 31 300 @Bellarmine W 84 - 80 63%
 Thu, Feb 5 292 Jacksonville W 79 - 70 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 350 North Florida W 96 - 82 91%
 Wed, Feb 11 171 Austin Peay W 80 - 77 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 174 Lipscomb W 83 - 80 60%
 Wed, Feb 18 328 @North Alabama W 82 - 76 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 338 West Georgia W 88 - 75 89%
 Wed, Feb 25 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 83 - 82 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 236 @Central Arkansas L 78 - 79 49%
Totals 19 - 11 15 - 3 -1 +4 B C+ C+ -5 D C- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.2 9.6 18.7 18.9 10.4 2.7 62.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 7.1 9.5 4.2 0.5 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.9 4.1 1.4 0.1 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.3 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 7.0 13.7 20.5 23.0 19.4 10.4 2.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
17-1 100.0% 10.4    10.3 0.1
16-2 97.3% 18.9    16.3 2.5 0.0
15-3 81.3% 18.7    11.8 6.2 0.6
14-4 46.6% 9.6    3.6 4.5 1.5 0.0
13-5 16.1% 2.2    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 62.5% 62.5 45.2 14.4 2.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.7% 39.6% 39.6% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6
17-1 10.4% 35.3% 35.3% 13.8 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.5 6.8
16-2 19.4% 28.8% 28.8% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.2 0.1 13.8
15-3 23.0% 24.8% 24.8% 14.7 0.2 1.7 3.5 0.3 17.3
14-4 20.5% 20.6% 20.6% 14.9 0.0 0.8 2.8 0.6 16.3
13-5 13.7% 17.2% 17.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.5 11.3
12-6 7.0% 11.2% 11.2% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 6.2
11-7 2.5% 12.0% 12.0% 15.6 0.1 0.2 2.2
10-8 0.7% 9.6% 9.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 14.5 76.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 12.9 0.5 23.9 61.0 14.1 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%