North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.4 #350
Expected Predictive Rating -14.8 #348
Pace 77.0 #24
Improvement +1.2 #122

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #209 C+ D+ D+ F B-
Defense #365 F F F B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #322 1.15 #181 -3.5 #297
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #322 0.87 #42 -2.0 #284
Three Pointers 54% #6 1.03 #160 +7.2 #16
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #130 +1.7 #129
Freethrows 12.5 #360 80% #5 9.9 #332
Second Chance 23.9% #337 1.19 #37 0.28 #254
Turnovers 17.8% #269
Total Offense -1.5 #209

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #132 1.27 #314 -3.5 #296
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #305 1.00 #364 -0.4 #208
Three Pointers 43% #115 1.02 #197 -1.3 #239
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #330 -5.2 #330
Freethrows 16.2 #102 70% #87 11.4 #89
Second Chance 38.7% #360 1.22 #350 0.47 #364
Turnovers 13.0% #344
Total Defense -11.0 #365

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #118 1.3% #295
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.2% #144 8.7% #327
Possession Length 17.0 #134 15.6 #10
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #287 0.26 #360
Improvement +1.2 #114 +0.0 #187

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.3% 6.0% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.4% 21.3% 46.3%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 43.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 45 - 126 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 10 @Florida L 64 - 104 0% -21  0 - 1 -17 -5 F A F -6 A+ F B+
 Wed, Nov 12 22 @Tennessee L 66 - 99 1% -15  0 - 2 -13 -2 C- B+ F -9 C+ F C
 Wed, Nov 19 215 @Wofford L 78 - 86 13% -1  0 - 3 -8 -0 B F C -8 C F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 244 Southern Miss L 83 - 92 23% +0  0 - 4 -14 +8 A+ F F -21 F F F
 Sun, Nov 23 317 Prairie View L 82 - 85 39% +5  0 - 5 -13 +2 A+ C F -14 D- C- C-
 Tue, Dec 2 257 SIU Edwardsville L 63 - 72 34% -1  0 - 6 -17 -6 C- D+ F -12 D F F
 Sun, Dec 7 6 @Gonzaga L 58 - 109 0% -26  0 - 7 -27 -9 C- D+ D- -13 D- F B
 Sat, Dec 13 73 @Dayton L 61 - 84 3% -21  0 - 8 -12 -3 F B B- -10 F C F
 Thu, Dec 18 234 @Charleston Southern L 90 - 113 15% -12  0 - 9 -24 +6 B D C -27 F C+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 40 @Miami (FL) L 67 - 105 1% -18  0 - 10 -23 -2 F B F -18 F F D
 Sun, Dec 28 180 Columbia L 82 - 90 22% -1  0 - 11 -12 +4 A- F B -16 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 171 @Austin Peay L 83 - 102 10% -8  0 - 12 0 - 1 -17 +5 C+ F B- -20 C F F
 Sat, Jan 3 174 @Lipscomb L 74 - 82 10% -2  0 - 13 0 - 2 -6 +3 C F C- -9 A- F F
 Thu, Jan 8 338 West Georgia L 73 - 85 57% -6  0 - 14 0 - 3 -26 -9 F A+ F -17 F F F
 Sat, Jan 10 177 Queens L 82 - 89 22% -2  0 - 15 0 - 4 -11 -0 C+ D B- -11 C+ F F
 Thu, Jan 15 328 @North Alabama W 105 - 91 32% +10  1 - 15 1 - 4 +7 +27 A+ B+ A -20 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 236 @Central Arkansas L 69 - 98 15% -23  1 - 16 1 - 5 -30 -5 C F D -25 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 254 Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 85 34% +2  2 - 16 2 - 5 -6 +6 B+ B F -12 D F D
 Sat, Jan 24 300 Bellarmine L 85 - 87 44%
 Thu, Jan 29 332 Stetson W 84 - 83 55%
 Sat, Jan 31 174 Lipscomb L 81 - 89 22%
 Thu, Feb 5 338 @West Georgia L 83 - 87 35%
 Sat, Feb 7 177 @Queens L 82 - 96 9%
 Wed, Feb 11 225 @Florida Gulf Coast L 80 - 92 14%
 Sat, Feb 14 292 @Jacksonville L 73 - 81 23%
 Thu, Feb 19 171 Austin Peay L 78 - 86 22%
 Sat, Feb 21 332 @Stetson L 81 - 86 33%
 Thu, Feb 26 225 Florida Gulf Coast L 83 - 89 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 292 Jacksonville L 76 - 78 44%
Totals 5 - 24 5 - 13 -12 -1 C+ D+ D+ -11 F F F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.5 1.0 0.1 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.8 2.6 0.2 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.2 3.8 5.6 0.8 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 8.8 2.4 0.0 14.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 9.6 5.7 0.3 0.0 17.1 10th
11th 0.3 3.0 10.5 9.6 1.1 0.0 24.6 11th
12th 2.7 7.8 7.5 1.8 0.0 19.8 12th
Total 3.1 10.7 19.5 23.9 20.0 12.9 6.6 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
9-9 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 2.4
8-10 6.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.5
7-11 12.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.8
6-12 20.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.9
5-13 23.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.9
4-14 19.5% 19.5
3-15 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.7
2-16 3.1% 3.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.0%