North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -12.2 344
Expected Predictive Rating -11.6 337
Pace 64.8 282
Improvement -4.9 347

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #307 D- C C- C- C+
Defense D- #345 D F D C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 29 50% 337 +0.4 161
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 188 33% 335 -1.2 247
Three Pointers 35% 306 31% 306 -4.8 328
1st FG Attempt 0.91 333 -5.7 333
Second Chance 29.6% 212 1.05 137 0.31 175
Turnovers 17.9% 245
Freethrows 0.31 186 68% 324 0.21 240
Total Offense -5.1 307

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 103 60% 243 -2.8 272
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 332 44% 342 +1.1 109
Three Pointers 43% 111 35% 250 -2.1 287
1st FG Attempt 1.09 297 -3.8 297
Second Chance 35.7% 341 1.18 345 0.42 357
Turnovers 14.5% 321
Freethrows 0.27 83 76% 343 0.21 136
Total Defense -7.0 345

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.5 113 +0.9 326
Shot Type Accuracy -6.0 346 +2.8 285
Possession Length 18.5 301 17.0 136
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 313 0.20 292
Improvement -1.6 #283 -3.3 #328

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 95% 90% 99%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 37.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 31 - 62 - 9
Quad 44 - 127 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 79 @Mississippi St. L 62 - 86 3% -5  10% 0 - 1 D- -14 F+ -8 D- B F D+ -5 C- B- F
 Tue, Nov 11 280 Northwestern St. W 87 - 83 OT 41% +5  85% 1 - 1 D+ -6 C +2 D- A+ C D- -8 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 126 East Tennessee St. L 74 - 78 15% +8  88% 1 - 2 D+ -5 C- -1 D+ A+ C- D+ -5 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 38 @Clemson L 61 - 81 1% -14  5% 1 - 3 C- -3 C+ +3 D+ A- A+ D- -9 B F A-
 Sat, Nov 22 282 @Chattanooga L 57 - 71 22% -6  28% 1 - 4 F -18 F -11 D+ D F D- -9 D F A-
 Mon, Dec 1 184 @Jacksonville St. W 73 - 66 11% -2  17% 2 - 4 B +8 B- +4 D- B B+ B +5 A F F
 Wed, Dec 3 107 @San Francisco W 65 - 63 5% -4  37% 3 - 4 B +9 D+ -2 F A+ F A +12 A+ C- D+
 Mon, Dec 15 305 @Alabama A&M L 60 - 68 26% -0  36% 3 - 5 D- -13 F -13 D+ F D C -1 A F F
 Fri, Dec 19 151 @Loyola Marymount L 57 - 91 8% -22  0% 3 - 6 F -31 F -13 F F+ A F -18 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 333 Stetson L 67 - 70 57% -0  38% 3 - 7 0 - 1 F+ -17 F -12 F C F+ D -5 F B+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 243 Florida Gulf Coast L 55 - 72 33% -8  0% 3 - 8 0 - 2 F -25 F -23 F F B C -1 D B- C+
 Thu, Jan 8 267 @Eastern Kentucky L 80 - 88 19% -3  15% 3 - 9 0 - 3 D -11 B- +5 B- C B- F -16 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 283 @Bellarmine W 82 - 73 22% +1  39% 4 - 9 1 - 3 B- +5 A +12 A+ D C+ D+ -5 D+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 345 North Florida L 91 - 105 62% -10  12% 4 - 10 1 - 4 F -29 C+ +2 C+ A C- F -31 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 308 Jacksonville L 68 - 90 49% -13  10% 4 - 11 1 - 5 F -34 F+ -10 F C C F -25 F F D-
 Wed, Jan 21 218 @Queens L 62 - 87 13% -10  4% 4 - 12 1 - 6 F -25 F -16 F D F F+ -9 D- F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 243 @Florida Gulf Coast L 64 - 72 16% -8  5% 4 - 13 1 - 7 D -10 F+ -9 F A+ C C -1 C C B-
 Sat, Jan 31 333 @Stetson W 68 - 66 34% +3  81% 5 - 13 2 - 7 D+ -6 D -5 D+ D D C -1 B+ F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 190 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 11% -7  15% 5 - 14 2 - 8 F -20 F -12 F D- C F+ -9 F D- C-
 Sat, Feb 7 152 @Austin Peay L 62 - 91 8% -17  4% 5 - 15 2 - 9 F -26 D+ -3 D- C C- F -27 F F F
 Mon, Feb 9 190 Central Arkansas L 65 - 72 24% +5  82% 5 - 16 2 - 10 D- -12 F -10 C- C F C- -2 B F B+
 Wed, Feb 11 317 West Georgia L 73 - 82 52% -6  2% 5 - 17 2 - 11 F -22 D+ -3 C+ F+ B+ F -19 F F+ F
 Sun, Feb 15 267 Eastern Kentucky L 74 - 77 38%
 Wed, Feb 18 218 Queens L 76 - 82 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 187 @Lipscomb L 68 - 81 10%
 Wed, Feb 25 283 Bellarmine L 75 - 77 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 317 @West Georgia L 71 - 77 30%
Totals 6 - 21 3 - 15 -12 D -5 D- C C- D- -7 D F D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D D D- 45% 20% 35% C+ D- C- C+ C C- C D- C- D- C- D- D+ D+ 42% 15% 43% D D D- F+ F D B- D- C+
1.01 50% 33% 31% -6 +1 0.91 30% 1.1 .31 18% .31 68% .21 1.19 60% 44% 35% +3 +1 1.09 36% 1.2 .42 14% .27 76% .23
Nov
5		 Mississippi St. F+ F D+ B D+ 26% 43% 31% F D- C- A+ B F D- F F D+ D- A D+ C- 40% 24% 36% C- C- F A+ B- F F B- D-
0.87 29% 35% 35% -8 -4 0.78 24% 1.3 .31 18% .20 58% .12 1.20 68% 31% 35% +3 0 1.07 43% 0.7 .30 10% .37 67% .25
Nov
11		 Northwestern St. C F+ F B F 51% 15% 34% B D- B+ A+ A+ C A+ D- A+ D- F D C F 40% 31% 29% C F B A+ A+ D F F F
1.17 50% 29% 38% -4 +2 0.98 40% 1.5 .60 17% .60 68% .41 1.11 67% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 20% 0.3 .07 15% .46 83% .38
Nov
15		 East Tennessee St. C- D- F B D 41% 13% 46% C+ D+ B- A+ A+ C- A A- A+ D+ F F C- F 35% 18% 47% B- F+ B+ A+ A+ F A A+ A+
1.08 53% 17% 38% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.4 .45 20% .39 81% .31 1.14 74% 50% 35% +8 0 1.18 22% 0.6 .14 10% .23 57% .13
Nov
17		 Clemson C+ D- F D- D- 35% 13% 52% A- D+ A C+ A- A+ C F D+ D- C F+ B A- 39% 4% 57% D- B F C- F A- D F+ F+
0.97 47% 17% 28% -11 +1 0.81 33% 1.0 .33 13% .27 67% .18 1.29 61% 50% 31% -1 +2 1.04 54% 1.1 .60 19% .39 80% .31
Nov
22		 Chattanooga F C+ F D+ D 36% 19% 45% C- D+ C- F+ D F C F F D- D+ F C+ D 27% 15% 58% C- D F C- F A- C- B C
0.94 60% 25% 32% -3 0 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 20% .35 53% .19 1.18 62% 57% 32% +2 0 1.06 42% 1.1 .45 20% .29 71% .21
Dec
1		 Jacksonville St. B- F C+ D F 52% 10% 38% A D- B- B+ B B+ C C C B A+ A+ B- A+ 46% 8% 46% D+ A C- F F F C+ A+ A+
1.11 44% 40% 30% -9 +2 0.88 32% 1.2 .37 14% .32 78% .25 1.00 41% 0% 32% -12 +2 0.81 31% 1.5 .45 14% .35 45% .16
Dec
3		 San Francisco D+ F B- F F 47% 29% 24% C- F A+ C+ A+ F B+ A+ A A B+ D A+ A+ 29% 14% 57% C+ A+ A- F C- D+ B A A-
1.00 38% 40% 25% -12 -1 0.76 48% 1.1 .50 19% .32 82% .26 0.97 50% 43% 25% -9 0 0.84 27% 1.4 .38 14% .29 63% .18
Dec
15		 Alabama A&M F C F A C- 32% 28% 40% F D+ F F F D D+ F F+ C A+ F A+ A+ 36% 23% 40% C- A F F F F F B+ F
0.92 60% 23% 42% +1 -1 1.02 12% 0.5 .06 18% .32 59% .19 1.04 35% 45% 21% -14 -1 0.72 32% 1.2 .39 11% .53 68% .36
Dec
19		 Loyola Marymount F F C F F 43% 31% 25% C- F C- F F+ A A+ F B+ F B F F F+ 40% 9% 51% F F F F F F C- B- C
0.83 32% 38% 23% -16 -1 0.69 30% 0.7 .21 12% .41 64% .26 1.32 55% 60% 43% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.6 .59 13% .28 65% .18
Jan
1		 Stetson F D D- F F 45% 6% 49% A F B- D C F+ C+ D C D F F A- F 44% 16% 40% F F C A+ B+ B- D- D- F+
1.02 57% 33% 20% -11 +2 0.84 36% 1.1 .38 18% .30 69% .20 1.06 75% 57% 28% +7 +1 1.18 25% 0.7 .18 20% .36 74% .27
Jan
3		 Florida Gulf Coast F F F F F 48% 12% 40% B+ F F F F B A F B C C+ D F D 40% 21% 38% F+ D B- C+ B- C+ A+ D- A
0.80 42% 0% 25% -18 +2 0.70 15% 0.8 .13 15% .46 67% .31 1.05 57% 45% 40% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.0 .28 19% .16 78% .13
Jan
8		 Eastern Kentucky B- B A A- B+ 26% 32% 43% F B- F A+ C B- A+ F C F B F D+ D+ 28% 16% 56% D- D+ F F F F F F F
1.21 67% 53% 40% +11 -2 1.19 23% 1.4 .33 14% .44 56% .25 1.34 50% 50% 36% +1 0 1.04 43% 1.4 .60 9% .38 83% .32
Jan
10		 Bellarmine A A- F A+ A+ 37% 20% 44% C A+ B+ F D C+ A+ B+ A+ D+ F A+ D+ D+ 35% 10% 55% C+ D+ C+ F F D- B+ A+ A
1.36 73% 25% 61% +21 0 1.44 42% 0.8 .33 15% .43 77% .33 1.21 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.18 19% 1.8 .33 13% .25 62% .15
Jan
15		 North Florida C+ C D+ B C 60% 10% 31% A C+ C- A+ A C- B D- C+ F F F F F 30% 13% 57% C+ F F F F F F+ F F
1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +3 1.15 36% 1.6 .58 13% .33 65% .21 1.49 69% 57% 45% +15 0 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 10% .30 95% .28
Jan
17		 Jacksonville F+ D- A+ F F 53% 11% 36% A F F A+ C C A+ A- A+ F B- D F F 61% 14% 25% F F F+ F F D- D+ F F
1.01 54% 60% 19% -8 +2 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 15% .52 77% .40 1.34 52% 43% 54% +4 +3 1.16 35% 1.9 .65 15% .31 89% .28
Jan
21		 Queens F D- F F F 54% 13% 33% A- F C F D F A- C- B+ F+ F+ F A+ D 58% 11% 31% F D- F C F C+ F F F
0.92 52% 17% 27% -10 +2 0.87 34% 0.8 .29 24% .43 73% .31 1.29 69% 80% 21% +5 +3 1.18 46% 1.1 .50 16% .44 96% .42
Jan
29		 Florida Gulf Coast F+ A- F F F 48% 24% 28% C F D+ A+ A+ C A- D B C B F C- C 27% 20% 53% C- C C- C+ C B- A- F C+
0.97 68% 18% 8% -11 0 0.80 27% 1.8 .48 17% .43 71% .31 1.09 54% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 20% .21 91% .19
Jan
31		 Stetson D A- F D- D+ 40% 16% 44% C+ D+ D+ D+ D D A- F+ B- C F+ A+ A+ A- 46% 22% 33% D B+ F F F C- C- F F+
1.08 72% 29% 30% +2 +1 1.07 29% 1.1 .32 17% .35 67% .23 1.05 67% 10% 20% -9 0 0.85 34% 1.3 .46 17% .31 88% .27
Feb
4		 Central Arkansas F F D D+ F 43% 12% 45% B- F D- C- D- C C+ F F+ F+ D- A+ F F 39% 7% 54% F+ F D+ F+ D- C- A+ F A-
0.90 43% 33% 32% -8 +1 0.88 22% 1.1 .24 20% .30 50% .15 1.22 67% 0% 41% +7 +2 1.19 29% 1.2 .35 15% .16 78% .12
Feb
7		 Austin Peay D+ F A+ F F 59% 18% 24% A- D- A+ F C C- F A+ F+ F D- F F F 54% 6% 40% F F D+ F F F A+ A- A+
1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14 1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Central Arkansas F D A+ D D 58% 8% 34% A C- C+ C- C F A+ C+ A+ C- B- F A+ B+ 39% 9% 52% F+ B C- F F B+ F F+ F
0.96 55% 67% 31% -1 +3 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 28% .47 74% .35 1.07 56% 75% 25% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.4 .41 19% .42 74% .31
Feb
11		 West Georgia D+ C D- A+ C+ 53% 23% 25% D+ C+ F D- F+ B+ D D+ D- F C+ D- F F 33% 31% 37% D+ F C- F F+ F B- F C-
1.13 61% 33% 46% +5 +1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 12% .28 69% .19 1.27 53% 44% 47% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.3 .41 11% .24 86% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 7th
8th 0.3 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 1.0 1.1 2.1 10th
11th 5.6 8.0 0.3 13.8 11th
12th 18.2 36.1 24.7 3.2 82.3 12th
Total 18.2 36.1 30.3 12.3 2.9 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.3% 0.3
6-12 2.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.3
4-14 30.3% 30.3
3-15 36.1% 36.1
2-16 18.2% 18.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 18.2%