North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.5 #328
Expected Predictive Rating -10.4 #329
Pace 66.5 #244
Improvement -6.2 #362

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #282 F C C C- C+
Defense #343 D+ F F C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #55 0.97 #352 -1.3 #231
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #186 0.62 #336 -1.5 #259
Three Pointers 37% #275 0.95 #259 -3.4 #298
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #338 -6.1 #338
Freethrows 17.9 #171 67% #318 12.1 #218
Second Chance 30.2% #196 1.10 #112 0.33 #146
Turnovers 16.9% #213
Total Offense -4.0 #282

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #124 1.19 #232 -1.9 #245
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #291 0.88 #334 +0.4 #163
Three Pointers 43% #128 1.04 #214 -1.3 #242
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #270 -2.8 #271
Freethrows 16.9 #148 74% #270 12.5 #158
Second Chance 36.6% #350 1.16 #316 0.43 #353
Turnovers 13.5% #333
Total Defense -6.5 #343

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #132 1.3% #286
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.7% #353 4.2% #259
Possession Length 18.1 #256 17.0 #120
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #313 0.21 #294
Improvement -1.3 #260 -4.9 #358

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.6% 5.4% 0.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 53.2% 31.3% 58.0%
First Four0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Away) - 17.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 31 - 62 - 8
Quad 46 - 118 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 76 @Mississippi St. L 62 - 86 4% -5  0 - 1 -13 -6 D C+ F -7 D+ B+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 276 Northwestern St. W 87 - 83 OT 46% +5  1 - 1 -5 +2 F A+ C -8 F A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 15 135 East Tennessee St. L 74 - 78 20% +8  1 - 2 -5 +2 D A+ C- -8 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 32 @Clemson L 61 - 81 1% -14  1 - 3 -3 +6 D A A+ -11 B+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 247 @Chattanooga L 57 - 71 21% -6  1 - 4 -16 -8 F F F -10 D+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 1 216 @Jacksonville St. W 73 - 66 17% -2  2 - 4 +7 +5 F B B+ +2 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 3 101 @San Francisco W 65 - 63 6% -4  3 - 4 +10 +1 F A+ F +9 A+ C+ D
 Mon, Dec 15 301 @Alabama A&M L 60 - 68 30% -0  3 - 5 -13 -10 D F D -4 A+ F F
 Fri, Dec 19 155 @Loyola Marymount L 57 - 91 11% -22  3 - 6 -31 -10 F C- A+ -21 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 332 Stetson L 67 - 70 63% -0  3 - 7 0 - 1 -17 -9 F C F -8 F B+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 225 Florida Gulf Coast L 55 - 72 36% -8  3 - 8 0 - 2 -24 -22 F F B -2 D- B A-
 Thu, Jan 8 254 @Eastern Kentucky L 80 - 88 21% -3  3 - 9 0 - 3 -10 +8 B C C+ -19 D F F
 Sat, Jan 10 300 @Bellarmine W 82 - 73 30% +1  4 - 9 1 - 3 +4 +15 A+ D- C+ -10 D F F
 Thu, Jan 15 350 North Florida L 91 - 105 68% -10  4 - 10 1 - 4 -29 +5 B- A C+ -35 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 292 Jacksonville L 68 - 90 51% -13  4 - 11 1 - 5 -33 -6 F C+ C+ -27 F F D-
 Wed, Jan 21 177 @Queens L 62 - 87 13% -10  4 - 12 1 - 6 -23 -12 F D F -12 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 29 225 @Florida Gulf Coast L 71 - 81 18%
 Sat, Jan 31 332 @Stetson L 73 - 76 40%
 Wed, Feb 4 236 @Central Arkansas L 69 - 78 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 171 @Austin Peay L 67 - 79 12%
 Mon, Feb 9 236 Central Arkansas L 72 - 75 38%
 Wed, Feb 11 338 West Georgia W 78 - 74 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 254 Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 77 41%
 Wed, Feb 18 177 Queens L 76 - 82 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 174 @Lipscomb L 69 - 81 13%
 Wed, Feb 25 300 Bellarmine W 77 - 76 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 338 @West Georgia L 75 - 77 43%
Totals 8 - 19 5 - 13 -10 -4 F C C -6 D+ F F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.1 5th
6th 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.4 2.8 1.5 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.8 3.7 0.4 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 6.6 1.7 0.0 10.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.6 8.0 4.9 0.3 14.8 10th
11th 0.3 2.9 10.6 9.2 1.1 0.0 24.1 11th
12th 1.8 7.5 13.3 10.1 1.8 0.0 34.6 12th
Total 1.8 7.8 16.3 22.4 21.5 15.9 9.0 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.3% 9.5% 9.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
8-10 3.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 3.7
7-11 9.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.9
6-12 15.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.8
5-13 21.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 21.5
4-14 22.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 22.4
3-15 16.3% 16.3
2-16 7.8% 7.8
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%