Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.4#20
Expected Predictive Rating+19.3#15
Pace69.6#183
Improvement+3.3#17

Offense
Total Offense+10.3#13
First Shot+9.7#8
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#144
Layup/Dunks+2.0#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#108
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#111
Freethrows+3.9#21
Improvement+1.2#87

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#47
First Shot+4.9#45
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#179
Layups/Dunks+3.5#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#255
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#204
Freethrows+3.0#29
Improvement+2.1#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.9% 5.8% 1.8%
Top 2 Seed 9.0% 16.3% 6.4%
Top 4 Seed 34.4% 49.5% 29.0%
Top 6 Seed 59.2% 74.3% 53.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.6% 94.0% 82.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.6% 93.4% 81.6%
Average Seed 5.5 4.7 5.9
.500 or above 92.2% 97.4% 90.3%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 79.7% 68.5%
Conference Champion 8.2% 12.2% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.7% 1.4%
First Four6.1% 3.3% 7.1%
First Round83.0% 92.5% 79.6%
Second Round62.6% 74.2% 58.5%
Sweet Sixteen30.7% 39.6% 27.6%
Elite Eight12.5% 17.2% 10.8%
Final Four4.8% 6.7% 4.2%
Championship Game1.7% 2.6% 1.4%
National Champion0.6% 0.8% 0.5%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 26.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 94 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 11
Quad 25 - 113 - 12
Quad 32 - 015 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 218 Bethune-Cookman W 95-90 OT 97%     1 - 0 -1.5 +7.0 -9.1
  Thu, Nov 6 277 Merrimack W 95-57 98%     2 - 0 +28.6 +21.9 +8.1
  Tue, Nov 11 208 Wofford W 93-62 97%     3 - 0 +25.0 +15.0 +9.5
  Sun, Nov 16 7 Houston L 72-73 33%     3 - 1 +18.9 +13.7 +5.1
  Wed, Nov 19 312 Jackson St. W 112-66 98%     4 - 1 +34.6 +27.7 +3.6
  Mon, Nov 24 80 Oregon W 84-73 78%     5 - 1 +18.2 +14.5 +3.7
  Tue, Nov 25 1 Michigan L 72-102 16%     5 - 2 -3.9 +12.5 -16.0
  Wed, Nov 26 13 St. John's W 85-74 40%     6 - 2 +28.9 +23.4 +6.1
  Wed, Dec 3 35 North Carolina St. W 83-73 70%     7 - 2 +20.0 +11.4 +8.6
  Sat, Dec 6 9 @Arizona L 77-84 26%    
  Sat, Dec 13 209 Chattanooga W 84-66 96%    
  Sat, Dec 20 2 Purdue L 73-80 26%    
  Mon, Dec 29 199 Queens W 92-71 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 19 @Georgia L 84-87 39%    
  Tue, Jan 6 38 Texas A&M W 83-77 72%    
  Sat, Jan 10 22 Arkansas W 81-78 62%    
  Wed, Jan 14 37 @Missouri L 78-79 49%    
  Sat, Jan 17 89 South Carolina W 81-68 88%    
  Tue, Jan 20 58 @Mississippi W 77-74 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 15 @Florida L 76-81 32%    
  Wed, Jan 28 50 Texas W 83-75 76%    
  Sat, Jan 31 16 @Tennessee L 73-78 33%    
  Sat, Feb 7 11 Alabama L 87-88 49%    
  Tue, Feb 10 12 Vanderbilt L 81-82 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 22 @Arkansas L 78-81 40%    
  Wed, Feb 18 81 @Mississippi St. W 80-75 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 23 Kentucky W 80-77 62%    
  Tue, Feb 24 41 @Oklahoma W 80-79 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 58 Mississippi W 80-71 79%    
  Tue, Mar 3 29 LSU W 81-76 67%    
  Sat, Mar 7 11 @Alabama L 85-91 28%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 8.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 4.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 4.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.2 3.6 0.7 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 3.1 4.9 1.2 0.1 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.1 2.3 0.2 8.7 6th
7th 0.3 3.4 3.7 0.4 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 4.9 1.4 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.4 3.8 2.9 0.2 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 3.5 0.8 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.5 0.1 5.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.4 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 3.0 4.9 8.0 10.9 13.2 14.3 13.5 11.4 8.9 5.4 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 96.5% 1.1    1.0 0.1 0.0
15-3 79.6% 2.4    1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 48.5% 2.6    1.0 1.2 0.4 0.1
13-5 15.5% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 4.2 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.0% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 2.1 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.2 100.0%
14-4 5.4% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 2.6 0.8 1.6 1.9 0.9 0.1 100.0%
13-5 8.9% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.3 0.3 1.5 3.4 2.6 0.9 0.1 100.0%
12-6 11.4% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 3.9 0.2 0.8 3.1 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.5% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 4.8 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 4.4 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 14.3% 99.8% 4.6% 95.2% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 4.0 4.1 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
9-9 13.2% 97.5% 2.8% 94.7% 7.2 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.7 2.8 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 97.4%
8-10 10.9% 86.6% 1.5% 85.2% 9.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.2 0.1 1.5 86.4%
7-11 8.0% 53.9% 0.7% 53.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 3.7 53.5%
6-12 4.9% 16.0% 0.1% 15.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 4.2 15.9%
5-13 3.0% 2.2% 0.7% 1.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 1.6%
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 85.6% 7.0% 78.7% 5.5 2.9 6.1 11.7 13.7 13.7 11.1 7.3 4.9 4.3 4.3 5.1 0.5 0.0 14.4 84.6%