North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#35
Expected Predictive Rating+9.3#68
Pace75.0#53
Improvement-4.0#361

Offense
Total Offense+9.9#16
First Shot+9.1#11
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#135
Layup/Dunks+2.7#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#175
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#80
Freethrows+2.8#51
Improvement-2.8#360

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#84
First Shot+0.7#146
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#56
Layups/Dunks+5.7#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#315
Freethrows-1.5#275
Improvement-1.2#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.5% 6.7% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 19.3% 19.9% 5.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.1% 65.0% 42.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.4% 63.3% 41.6%
Average Seed 7.6 7.6 8.6
.500 or above 90.2% 90.8% 73.5%
.500 or above in Conference 76.5% 77.0% 62.1%
Conference Champion 5.2% 5.3% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 1.2%
First Four6.6% 6.5% 8.6%
First Round60.8% 61.7% 37.2%
Second Round36.2% 36.8% 20.6%
Sweet Sixteen12.2% 12.5% 4.3%
Elite Eight4.3% 4.4% 2.3%
Final Four1.7% 1.7% 0.8%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.3%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 27 - 411 - 12
Quad 35 - 116 - 13
Quad 44 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 336 NC Central W 114-65 99%     1 - 0 +35.0 +30.9 +2.3
  Fri, Nov 7 112 UAB W 94-70 87%     2 - 0 +24.7 +15.9 +7.4
  Wed, Nov 12 293 UNC Greensboro W 110-64 97%     3 - 0 +35.6 +25.4 +7.7
  Mon, Nov 17 43 Virginia Commonwealth W 85-79 67%     4 - 0 +14.6 +14.0 +0.3
  Mon, Nov 24 76 Seton Hall L 74-85 70%     4 - 1 -3.5 +2.5 -5.5
  Tue, Nov 25 59 Boise St. W 81-70 64%     5 - 1 +20.3 +14.7 +5.6
  Wed, Nov 26 50 Texas L 97-102 59%     5 - 2 +5.7 +24.3 -18.4
  Wed, Dec 3 20 @Auburn L 73-83 30%     5 - 3 +8.4 +6.5 +2.0
  Sat, Dec 6 210 UNC Asheville W 91-72 96%    
  Wed, Dec 10 98 Liberty W 84-73 85%    
  Sat, Dec 13 18 Kansas L 78-79 50%    
  Wed, Dec 17 296 Texas Southern W 94-70 98%    
  Sat, Dec 20 58 Mississippi W 81-77 63%    
  Wed, Dec 31 53 Wake Forest W 86-80 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 26 Virginia W 80-78 55%    
  Tue, Jan 6 132 @Boston College W 79-71 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 100 @Florida St. W 88-83 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 134 Georgia Tech W 86-72 91%    
  Tue, Jan 20 33 @Clemson L 76-79 39%    
  Sat, Jan 24 92 @Pittsburgh W 79-74 67%    
  Tue, Jan 27 61 Syracuse W 82-75 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 53 @Wake Forest W 83-82 50%    
  Tue, Feb 3 40 @SMU L 83-85 43%    
  Sat, Feb 7 70 Virginia Tech W 86-78 77%    
  Mon, Feb 9 14 @Louisville L 81-89 24%    
  Sat, Feb 14 34 Miami (FL) W 82-79 60%    
  Tue, Feb 17 21 North Carolina W 83-82 54%    
  Tue, Feb 24 26 @Virginia L 77-81 35%    
  Sat, Feb 28 56 @Notre Dame W 77-76 52%    
  Mon, Mar 2 3 Duke L 76-82 30%    
  Sat, Mar 7 84 Stanford W 87-78 80%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.5 1.7 0.1 9.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 5.0 2.2 0.2 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.8 3.4 0.4 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.2 3.4 4.6 1.0 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 4.9 2.1 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.6 3.6 0.4 8.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 4.1 1.1 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.5 2.2 0.2 6.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 2.8 0.5 4.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.4 0.9 0.1 4.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.4 0.2 3.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.1 6.3 9.6 12.2 14.2 14.4 12.9 10.0 6.7 3.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.7% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 83.6% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
15-3 49.4% 1.9    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 16.7% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 2.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.6% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 3.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.9% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.7% 99.9% 11.8% 88.1% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 10.0% 98.8% 9.4% 89.4% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.4 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 98.6%
12-6 12.9% 95.4% 6.2% 89.3% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.5 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.6 95.1%
11-7 14.4% 86.1% 3.8% 82.4% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.4 3.2 2.4 0.8 2.0 85.6%
10-8 14.2% 67.9% 1.8% 66.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.6 3.2 1.7 0.0 4.6 67.3%
9-9 12.2% 42.3% 0.8% 41.5% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.9 0.1 7.1 41.8%
8-10 9.6% 18.0% 0.5% 17.5% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.9 17.6%
7-11 6.3% 4.2% 0.5% 3.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.0 3.8%
6-12 4.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.2%
5-13 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 64.1% 4.6% 59.6% 7.6 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.8 5.4 7.4 9.7 10.8 9.6 8.8 5.7 0.2 0.0 35.9 62.4%