Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.7 83
Expected Predictive Rating +5.1 93
Pace 64.6 290
Improvement -4.8 344

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 85 B C C+ C C-
Defense B- 95 B- B+ D+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 295 B+ 65% 44 +0.1 174
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 144 B- 41% 90 +1.2 113
Three Pointers 43% 129 B 37% 64 +3.1 78
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 253 B+ +4.8 46
1st FG Attempt B 1.11 63
Second Chance B- 33.2% 99 D+ 0.96 280 C 0.32 157
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 130
Freethrows C+ 0.32 151 D+ 69% 278 C 0.22 189
Total Offense B- +3.7 85

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 346 C+ 56% 126 +5.2 36
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 154 C+ 37% 157 -0.1 198
Three Pointers 48% 20 B 31% 67 -1.8 277
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 253 B- +4.8 46
1st FG Attempt 0.95 68 B- +3.4 68
Second Chance A- 24.3% 16 C 1.01 154 B+ 0.25 35
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 286
Freethrows B- 0.28 96 D+ 74% 272 C+ 0.21 126
Total Defense B- +2.9 95

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 180 18.1 302
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 193 0.15 109
Improvement -0.1 #194 -4.7 #352

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 n/a
.500 or above 8% 11% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 18% 10% 46%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Home) - 76.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 52 - 12
Quad 22 - 34 - 15
Quad 33 - 27 - 17
Quad 47 - 114 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 205 LIU Brooklyn W 89 - 67 87% +15  99% 1 - 0 A- +16 A +12 A A+ F B +4 A- B C
 Fri, Nov 7 260 Detroit Mercy W 102 - 70 92% +17  86% 2 - 0 A+ +23 A +13 A- A+ A A- +8 C- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 326 Eastern Illinois W 78 - 58 96% +7  82% 3 - 0 B- +7 A +12 C A B+ C- -2 D- A C-
 Sun, Nov 16 39 @Ohio St. L 63 - 64 17% +3  68% 3 - 1 A- +16 D+ -4 B F D A+ +20 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 282 Bellarmine W 86 - 79 93% +9  77% 4 - 1 C- -3 C +0 A- B+ F C- -3 D A B
 Mon, Nov 24 12 Kansas L 61 - 71 13% -6  16% 4 - 2 B +9 C +0 C+ F+ A+ A- +8 B+ B+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 121 Rutgers W 68 - 63 65% +8  89% 5 - 2 B- +8 C+ +2 B+ A- F B+ +6 B+ D- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 5 Houston L 56 - 66 8% -12  0% 5 - 3 B+ +13 C+ +2 D C+ A+ A- +9 A+ F D-
 Tue, Dec 2 48 Missouri W 76 - 71 44% -1  27% 6 - 3 B+ +13 B- +4 A- D D+ A- +9 A- A+ C-
 Fri, Dec 5 50 @TCU W 87 - 85 OT 24% -2  27% 7 - 3 A- +16 A+ +15 A+ F+ B C+ +1 D+ B+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 202 Idaho W 80 - 65 87% +5  84% 8 - 3 B +9 A- +11 A B- C+ C +0 C A F
 Sat, Dec 13 275 Evansville W 82 - 58 93% +11  96% 9 - 3 B+ +14 B+ +7 A D- D+ A- +8 C B+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 253 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69 - 72 91% -4  6% 9 - 4 D -11 F -10 F+ F+ D+ C -1 C A F+
 Tue, Dec 30 74 @Stanford W 47 - 40 35% +5  77% 10 - 4 1 - 0 A +18 F -14 F C D+ A+ +33 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 73 @California L 71 - 72 35% +2  62% 10 - 5 1 - 1 B +10 B+ +9 B D A C+ +1 B A- F
 Sat, Jan 10 38 Clemson L 61 - 76 34% -6  7% 10 - 6 1 - 2 C- -4 C- -1 A C+ D- D+ -4 B+ D+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 41 Miami (FL) L 69 - 81 37% -5  9% 10 - 7 1 - 3 C- -2 C +1 B+ B+ F C- -3 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 56 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 89 27% -11  3% 10 - 8 1 - 4 C +0 B +6 B- A- C D -6 C+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 21 26 @North Carolina L 69 - 91 14% -14  0% 10 - 9 1 - 5 C- -4 C+ +2 C- C+ A+ D -6 D+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 132 Boston College W 68 - 64 77% -4  23% 11 - 9 2 - 5 C+ +3 C+ +3 C- A B+ C+ +0 A- F D+
 Tue, Jan 27 23 Virginia L 97 - 100 2OT 26% +5  73% 11 - 10 2 - 6 B +10 A+ +18 A+ D A D -7 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 67 @Syracuse L 72 - 86 33% -8  4% 11 - 11 2 - 7 C- -3 B- +5 A F A D- -8 F A F
 Wed, Feb 4 11 @Louisville L 65 - 76 8% -3  35% 11 - 12 2 - 8 B+ +12 C -0 C B+ C+ A +12 A B+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 95 Florida St. L 79 - 82 66% -8  1% 11 - 13 2 - 9 C -1 C+ +2 C- D A- C- -3 C+ A F
 Tue, Feb 10 37 @SMU L 81 - 89 16% -5  4% 11 - 14 2 - 10 B +9 A +12 A+ C- B- C- -3 D+ F A
 Sat, Feb 14 133 Georgia Tech W 78 - 70 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 98 @Pittsburgh L 68 - 70 44%
 Tue, Feb 24 3 Duke L 63 - 77 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 27 North Carolina St. L 73 - 79 30%
 Wed, Mar 4 74 Stanford W 73 - 71 58%
 Sat, Mar 7 132 @Boston College W 68 - 66 56%
Totals 14 - 17 5 - 13 +7 F +4 A B+ C- B- +3 B D+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B+ B- B B+ 34% 22% 43% C- B B- D+ C C+ C+ D+ C B- C+ C+ B B- 31% 21% 48% B- B- A- C B+ D+ B- D+ C+
1.14 65% 41% 37% +5 0 1.11 33% 1.0 .32 16% .32 69% .22 1.04 56% 37% 31% -3 -1 0.95 24% 1.0 .25 15% .28 74% .23
Nov
3		 LIU Brooklyn A A+ D A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% F+ A A+ A- A+ F A+ C+ A+ B B- A+ C A- 33% 28% 39% A- A- C+ B B C F B F
1.25 73% 33% 43% +10 -1 1.20 50% 1.2 .62 27% .58 70% .40 0.94 53% 23% 33% -6 -1 0.87 33% 0.9 .29 21% .55 61% .34
Nov
7		 Detroit Mercy A C F+ A+ A 38% 12% 50% C+ A- C- A+ A+ A D+ C D+ A- A- F B C- 25% 33% 43% C C- A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.34 59% 29% 45% +7 +1 1.19 31% 1.8 .56 9% .32 73% .23 0.92 47% 55% 31% +1 -3 0.98 20% 0.6 .12 17% .16 50% .08
Nov
11		 Eastern Illinois A B+ C- F+ C 39% 16% 45% C- C A+ D A B+ D D- D- C- A- F C+ F 20% 38% 42% A+ D- D+ A+ A C- B- F C
1.28 68% 38% 27% -1 +1 1.02 53% 1.0 .53 16% .29 73% .22 0.95 44% 53% 32% +1 -4 0.98 28% 0.4 .13 18% .24 83% .20
Nov
16		 Ohio St. D+ F+ A+ C+ A 31% 50% 19% F B D- F F D A F B- A+ D A+ C+ A+ 21% 34% 45% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C D D- F+
0.94 47% 54% 33% +4 -4 1.02 23% 0.3 .06 19% .37 60% .22 0.96 70% 31% 33% 0 -3 0.96 12% 0.5 .06 15% .41 83% .34
Nov
19		 Bellarmine C A+ A+ B A 35% 23% 42% C- A- B- A- B+ F A+ C A+ C- D- F B D- 36% 16% 49% B D A+ B- A B F D F
1.24 80% 60% 39% +16 -1 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 20% .58 72% .41 1.14 69% 86% 32% +10 0 1.22 8% 1.0 .08 19% .48 81% .39
Nov
24		 Kansas C A F F C+ 40% 24% 36% B- C+ D+ F F+ A+ B- A+ A A- C F+ A B+ 38% 26% 36% B- B+ B- B+ B+ C A A A+
0.93 64% 23% 20% -9 0 0.84 23% 0.4 .09 8% .25 87% .21 1.08 63% 46% 28% +1 -1 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 14% .23 69% .16
Nov
25		 Rutgers C+ C C+ A+ B+ 52% 18% 30% A- B+ A C A- F D- F F+ B+ A A+ F+ B 16% 30% 53% B+ B+ B F D- A+ C- B- C
1.09 57% 38% 46% +5 +1 1.14 43% 1.0 .43 26% .19 67% .13 1.01 43% 15% 39% -5 -3 0.86 31% 1.5 .46 23% .35 71% .25
Nov
26		 Houston C+ B- D F D- 24% 17% 59% C+ D D+ A C+ A+ A A A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 16% 31% 53% B A+ C F F D- F C F
0.95 60% 29% 21% -13 -1 0.76 24% 1.1 .27 14% .41 76% .31 1.12 29% 14% 25% -19 -3 0.58 39% 1.5 .59 8% .43 78% .33
Dec
2		 Missouri B- A+ A+ D+ A 21% 19% 60% C A- D+ F+ D D+ B A+ A- A- F+ B+ A+ A 38% 21% 42% B A- A+ A+ A+ C- F+ C F+
1.11 82% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.12 24% 0.7 .17 19% .32 83% .27 1.03 72% 30% 25% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.9 .23 17% .44 68% .30
Dec
5		 TCU A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 29% 45% F+ A+ C F F+ B A- F D+ C+ F A+ D- D 37% 18% 46% C+ D+ A+ F B+ F C- A- C+
1.16 73% 50% 48% +17 -2 1.32 26% 0.6 .16 19% .33 45% .15 1.14 71% 20% 38% +5 0 1.12 15% 2.0 .30 11% .34 65% .22
Dec
10		 Idaho A- A+ F+ A+ A+ 29% 48% 23% F A A D- B- C+ F D F C B- A+ F C- 33% 25% 41% A- C A A A F A+ F A-
1.27 80% 32% 67% +15 -4 1.23 35% 0.9 .32 14% .19 70% .13 1.04 53% 15% 48% +1 -1 1.02 20% 0.7 .14 10% .18 90% .16
Dec
13		 Evansville B+ F A- A+ A+ 25% 29% 45% D- A D+ F D- D+ B- D+ C+ A- C- A- C- C 28% 22% 50% D+ C C+ A+ B+ C B A+ A-
1.23 38% 47% 57% +13 -2 1.24 29% 0.8 .24 18% .31 71% .22 0.87 62% 30% 35% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.8 .17 20% .24 62% .15
Dec
21		 Purdue Fort Wayne F B+ F F F 40% 13% 48% C+ F+ B- F F+ D+ B A- A- C D+ B- C C- 24% 17% 59% B+ C A A A F+ D D- D
0.99 68% 17% 26% -4 +1 0.96 38% 0.7 .27 22% .31 82% .26 1.03 62% 33% 34% 0 -1 1.02 15% 0.8 .12 11% .28 76% .21
Dec
30		 Stanford F F F F F 49% 21% 30% B+ F A+ F C D+ D+ F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 4% 52% D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A-
0.81 43% 0% 23% -20 +1 0.63 38% 0.8 .29 21% .30 57% .17 0.69 43% 0% 16% -22 +2 0.63 24% 0.4 .10 10% .23 83% .19
Jan
2		 California B+ F A+ B+ B+ 25% 17% 58% D+ B B F D A A+ D A+ C+ F F A+ B+ 20% 18% 62% C+ B A- A A- F A+ B- A+
1.13 42% 50% 36% 0 0 1.00 32% 0.6 .19 11% .46 62% .29 1.14 73% 60% 26% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.9 .20 5% .20 75% .15
Jan
10		 Clemson C- B F+ A+ A+ 24% 26% 50% D A C- A- C+ D- A F B D+ F+ F A+ B 27% 25% 47% A+ B+ B F D+ F B F C
0.95 60% 27% 43% +4 -2 1.07 21% 1.2 .24 22% .36 67% .24 1.19 71% 54% 25% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.4 .35 9% .31 83% .26
Jan
13		 Miami (FL) C C+ A+ D+ A- 28% 28% 44% D+ B+ A+ D- B+ F A+ C- A C- F F B+ C- 37% 24% 39% A C A+ A+ A+ F+ C F D-
1.02 58% 58% 32% +4 -2 1.07 38% 0.9 .34 27% .36 67% .24 1.20 74% 50% 30% +6 0 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 12% .35 81% .28
Jan
17		 Virginia Tech B A F+ D B- 33% 25% 41% C- B- B+ B+ A- C A+ B A+ D A F C- C+ 36% 18% 45% C- C+ C- F F B- F F F
1.07 71% 31% 29% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 18% .36 76% .28 1.25 50% 63% 35% +2 0 1.07 35% 1.9 .65 17% .54 88% .47
Jan
21		 North Carolina C+ F C+ C C 22% 37% 41% F+ C- A F+ C+ A+ C F D D D F D- D+ 34% 8% 58% D D+ B- F F C- D+ C D+
1.00 38% 36% 33% -5 -3 0.85 35% 0.7 .25 7% .20 54% .11 1.32 67% 50% 39% +8 +1 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 12% .38 70% .26
Jan
24		 Boston College C+ A- B+ F C 29% 29% 43% D- C- B+ A A B+ A+ C- A C+ D+ B- A+ A- 26% 22% 52% C+ A- B- F F D+ B C+ B-
1.06 64% 43% 19% -6 -2 0.86 34% 1.2 .39 12% .39 64% .25 1.00 62% 36% 23% -8 -1 0.84 28% 1.7 .47 14% .25 64% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Virginia A+ B B A+ A+ 31% 26% 43% C A+ C F D A A+ A+ A+ D F+ F+ C D+ 36% 15% 49% B- C- A- A+ A+ C- F F F
1.24 59% 43% 48% +10 -1 1.20 26% 0.7 .17 13% .50 82% .41 1.28 68% 50% 35% +6 +1 1.15 35% 0.9 .30 14% .52 80% .42
Jan
31		 Syracuse B- A+ B- F+ A 35% 22% 43% C- A F B+ F A B+ D B- D- F F F+ F 32% 21% 47% B+ F A+ C+ A F C A B
1.07 78% 36% 27% +2 0 1.06 13% 1.3 .16 15% .35 70% .24 1.28 88% 55% 40% +17 0 1.36 20% 1.0 .20 9% .34 57% .20
Feb
4		 Louisville C D+ F B+ C 26% 30% 44% D+ C B- A B+ C+ D+ F F A D F A+ A+ 45% 8% 47% D+ A F+ A+ B+ B C B+ B-
0.94 50% 19% 38% -5 -2 0.87 29% 1.2 .33 17% .25 43% .11 1.10 70% 75% 21% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.7 .28 17% .32 72% .23
Feb
7		 Florida St. C+ B- A- F C- 33% 20% 47% C C- B- F D A- A+ F B+ C- A A+ F C+ 29% 12% 59% B C+ A+ D+ A F D+ D- D
1.09 61% 45% 27% -2 0 0.96 33% 0.6 .21 17% .40 63% .25 1.13 47% 0% 40% -2 0 0.98 21% 1.2 .26 7% .33 77% .25
Feb
10		 SMU A A+ D+ A+ A+ 37% 17% 46% B A+ D- A C- B- C- F D- C- B F+ F C- 37% 16% 47% D- D+ D- F+ F A C C+ C+
1.17 74% 33% 46% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.1 .26 17% .25 57% .14 1.29 56% 50% 48% +11 0 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 20% .29 75% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 10th
11th 0.4 1.9 0.3 2.6 11th
12th 0.1 3.2 2.2 0.0 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 1.7 7.6 0.9 10.2 13th
14th 0.6 10.6 6.8 0.1 18.0 14th
15th 0.2 9.7 17.2 1.7 0.0 28.7 15th
16th 2.0 12.9 2.4 0.0 17.4 16th
17th 6.0 4.4 0.1 10.5 17th
18th 2.3 3.8 0.3 6.4 18th
Total 2.3 11.9 28.0 32.0 19.8 5.5 0.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 0.6 0.9%
7-11 5.5% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 5.5 0.3%
6-12 19.8% 19.8
5-13 32.0% 32.0
4-14 28.0% 28.0
3-15 11.9% 11.9
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%