Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.1 #84
Expected Predictive Rating +7.0 #80
Pace 64.0 #311
Improvement -5.4 #358

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #101 B C C+ C D+
Defense #69 B+ A- D B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #301 1.27 #66 -0.5 #195
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #120 0.81 #101 +1.7 #95
Three Pointers 42% #150 1.11 #60 +2.7 #96
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #70 +3.9 #70
Freethrows 17.7 #186 70% #252 12.4 #196
Second Chance 35.0% #61 0.92 #322 0.32 #167
Turnovers 15.9% #145
Total Offense +2.9 #101

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #353 1.08 #88 +6.6 #18
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #111 0.75 #167 -0.6 #227
Three Pointers 49% #19 0.93 #76 -1.9 #269
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #58 +4.1 #59
Freethrows 15.7 #76 74% #282 11.7 #107
Second Chance 22.4% #4 1.07 #222 0.24 #24
Turnovers 14.3% #307
Total Defense +4.2 #69

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #274 -1.8% #52
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.0% #47 -6.4% #69
Possession Length 17.7 #214 18.1 #301
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #203 0.15 #96
Improvement -2.9 #328 -2.5 #312

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.0% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 2.9% 1.0%
Average Seed 10.3 10.3 10.4
.500 or above 43.8% 49.7% 21.5%
.500 or above in Conference 8.8% 10.6% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 7.7% 24.7%
First Four1.4% 1.6% 0.6%
First Round1.8% 2.1% 0.7%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Home) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 23 - 46 - 14
Quad 34 - 110 - 16
Quad 46 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 222 LIU Brooklyn W 89 - 67 90% +15  1 - 0 +15 +12 A- A+ F +3 A+ A- C+
 Fri, Nov 7 286 Detroit Mercy W 102 - 70 94% +17  2 - 0 +22 +15 A- A+ A+ +4 D+ A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 310 Eastern Illinois W 78 - 58 95% +7  3 - 0 +8 +16 C+ A C+ -5 F A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 30 @Ohio St. L 63 - 64 17% +3  3 - 1 +16 -0 A- F F +17 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 300 Bellarmine W 86 - 79 94% +9  4 - 1 -4 +4 A A- F -7 F A+ B-
 Mon, Nov 24 19 Kansas L 61 - 71 17% -6  4 - 2 +7 +2 C+ F A+ +5 A- A- C
 Tue, Nov 25 115 Rutgers W 68 - 63 65% +8  5 - 2 +8 +6 A+ A F +3 B+ D- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 4 Houston L 56 - 66 9% -12  5 - 3 +12 +5 D- C A+ +4 A+ F F
 Tue, Dec 2 50 Missouri W 76 - 71 47% -1  6 - 3 +13 +7 A+ F D +6 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Dec 5 45 @TCU W 87 - 85 OT 25% -2  7 - 3 +16 +18 A+ F B -2 D A F
 Wed, Dec 10 183 Idaho W 80 - 65 86% +5  8 - 3 +10 +13 A+ B- C+ -1 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 271 Evansville W 82 - 58 93% +11  9 - 3 +15 +12 A+ D- C- +4 D+ A C
 Sun, Dec 21 212 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69 - 72 89% -4  9 - 4 -9 -7 F F D- -2 C+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 77 @Stanford W 47 - 40 37% +5  10 - 4 1 - 0 +18 -11 F C C- +30 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 75 @California L 71 - 72 36% +2  10 - 5 1 - 1 +10 +12 B+ D- A+ -2 A- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 32 Clemson L 61 - 76 35% -6  10 - 6 1 - 2 -4 +1 A+ C F -7 A D F
 Tue, Jan 13 40 Miami (FL) L 69 - 81 41% -5  10 - 7 1 - 3 -3 +4 B+ B+ F -7 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 58 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 89 29% -11  10 - 8 1 - 4 -0 +8 B- A C -8 C F B+
 Wed, Jan 21 31 @North Carolina L 69 - 91 17% -14  10 - 9 1 - 5 -5 +4 D+ B- A+ -9 D F D
 Sat, Jan 24 134 Boston College W 70 - 61 79%
 Tue, Jan 27 16 Virginia L 65 - 73 23%
 Sat, Jan 31 67 @Syracuse L 69 - 73 35%
 Wed, Feb 4 13 @Louisville L 68 - 82 9%
 Sat, Feb 7 111 Florida St. W 79 - 72 73%
 Tue, Feb 10 29 @SMU L 70 - 80 17%
 Sat, Feb 14 113 Georgia Tech W 76 - 69 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 91 @Pittsburgh L 68 - 70 44%
 Tue, Feb 24 3 Duke L 65 - 77 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 26 North Carolina St. L 71 - 76 32%
 Wed, Mar 4 77 Stanford W 72 - 69 59%
 Sat, Mar 7 134 @Boston College W 67 - 64 59%
Totals 15 - 16 6 - 12 +7 +3 B C C+ +4 B+ A- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.6 2.0 0.1 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.7 4.6 0.9 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.5 5.4 3.8 0.1 9.9 11th
12th 0.0 3.2 7.6 1.2 0.0 12.1 12th
13th 1.0 8.5 4.3 0.1 13.9 13th
14th 0.2 5.2 7.9 0.7 0.0 13.9 14th
15th 0.0 1.5 7.6 2.2 0.0 11.3 15th
16th 0.4 4.4 4.1 0.3 9.1 16th
17th 0.1 1.8 4.1 1.0 0.0 6.9 17th
18th 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.2 0.1 4.5 18th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.4 11.3 18.9 22.6 20.0 12.9 6.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 63.3% 1.1% 62.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 62.9%
10-8 2.0% 40.4% 1.0% 39.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 1.2 39.8%
9-9 6.3% 15.5% 0.6% 14.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.0 5.3 15.0%
8-10 12.9% 3.1% 0.3% 2.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 12.5 2.9%
7-11 20.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.2%
6-12 22.6% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 22.6
5-13 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 18.9
4-14 11.3% 11.3
3-15 4.4% 4.4
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 0.1% 2.5% 10.3 97.4 2.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%