Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#313
Expected Predictive Rating-8.6#295
Pace70.1#168
Improvement+2.6#29

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#271
First Shot-2.0#230
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#280
Layup/Dunks-3.0#283
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#337
Freethrows+1.4#107
Improvement+2.2#29

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#328
First Shot-1.8#231
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#326
Layups/Dunks+1.4#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#196
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#317
Freethrows+1.0#124
Improvement+0.4#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.9% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 4.0% 7.5% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 20.9% 33.0% 13.3%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 13.7% 5.4% 18.8%
First Four0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
First Round0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Away) - 38.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 47 - 89 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 204 @Illinois-Chicago L 71-91 20%     0 - 1 -19.7 -9.2 -8.1
  Fri, Nov 7 56 @Notre Dame L 70-102 4%     0 - 2 -19.5 -2.4 -14.5
  Sat, Nov 15 173 @Toledo L 83-90 17%     0 - 3 -5.1 +1.3 -5.8
  Tue, Nov 18 203 Eastern Michigan L 62-72 39%     0 - 4 -15.6 -12.3 -3.3
  Fri, Nov 21 10 @Michigan St. L 56-84 1%     0 - 5 -6.0 -3.2 -3.4
  Sun, Nov 23 121 @DePaul L 75-95 10%     0 - 6 -14.0 +8.9 -23.7
  Sat, Nov 29 347 @Niagara W 70-66 51%     1 - 6 -4.6 -0.5 -3.8
  Wed, Dec 3 354 IU Indianapolis W 92-78 77%     2 - 6 1 - 0 -2.1 +7.8 -10.1
  Sat, Dec 6 308 @Cleveland St. L 79-82 38%    
  Sun, Dec 14 236 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 76-83 25%    
  Mon, Dec 29 178 @Youngstown St. L 70-80 18%    
  Fri, Jan 2 183 Robert Morris L 71-75 37%    
  Fri, Jan 9 160 Wright St. L 70-75 32%    
  Sun, Jan 11 308 Cleveland St. W 82-79 60%    
  Thu, Jan 15 181 @Northern Kentucky L 69-79 19%    
  Sat, Jan 17 354 @IU Indianapolis W 90-88 55%    
  Wed, Jan 21 236 Purdue Fort Wayne L 79-80 47%    
  Sat, Jan 24 141 Oakland L 78-85 27%    
  Fri, Jan 30 181 Northern Kentucky L 72-76 37%    
  Wed, Feb 4 221 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-82 25%    
  Sat, Feb 7 264 @Green Bay L 70-76 31%    
  Thu, Feb 12 160 @Wright St. L 67-78 16%    
  Sun, Feb 15 178 Youngstown St. L 73-77 36%    
  Fri, Feb 20 221 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 77-79 44%    
  Sun, Feb 22 264 Green Bay W 74-73 51%    
  Wed, Feb 25 183 @Robert Morris L 68-78 19%    
  Sat, Feb 28 141 @Oakland L 75-88 13%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.4 3.4 1.0 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.8 5.0 1.7 0.1 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.5 5.7 2.1 0.1 15.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.7 7.0 5.8 2.0 0.2 19.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.2 6.1 4.4 1.3 0.1 19.9 10th
11th 0.4 1.6 2.3 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.7 11th
Total 0.4 2.0 4.7 8.3 11.1 13.9 14.1 13.3 11.3 8.3 6.0 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 84.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 51.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 15.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 11.8% 11.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.4% 7.9% 7.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 0.7% 13.4% 13.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
13-7 1.9% 6.5% 6.5% 15.4 0.1 0.1 1.7
12-8 3.3% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 3.1
11-9 6.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.8
10-10 8.3% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.2 8.1
9-11 11.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.1
8-12 13.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.2
7-13 14.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.1
6-14 13.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-15 11.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.1
4-16 8.3% 8.3
3-17 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
2-18 2.0% 2.0
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%