Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#277
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#221
Pace63.6#324
Improvement-1.5#295

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#278
First Shot-1.8#221
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#310
Layup/Dunks-4.4#311
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#93
Freethrows+1.4#109
Improvement-0.6#236

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#246
First Shot+2.4#100
After Offensive Rebounds-4.7#356
Layups/Dunks-0.7#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#89
Freethrows+0.7#141
Improvement-0.9#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.6% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 25.6% 31.5% 14.3%
.500 or above in Conference 53.9% 62.4% 37.4%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.0% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.4% 5.3%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 1.1%
First Round2.6% 3.1% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 65.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 82 - 11
Quad 412 - 714 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 147 South Dakota St. L 66-75 25%     0 - 1 -8.3 -4.4 -3.9
  Thu, Nov 6 20 @Auburn L 57-95 2%     0 - 2 -19.6 -7.1 -13.9
  Tue, Nov 11 202 @Tarleton St. L 62-76 26%     0 - 3 -13.6 -13.3 +0.4
  Sat, Nov 15 235 @Boston University W 91-79 32%     1 - 3 +10.5 +21.8 -10.1
  Wed, Nov 19 326 Maine W 72-65 72%     2 - 3 -5.3 +6.6 -10.9
  Fri, Nov 21 15 @Florida L 45-80 1%     2 - 4 -14.2 -13.8 -2.8
  Fri, Nov 28 240 @Penn L 65-77 32%     2 - 5 -13.5 -8.3 -5.6
  Sat, Nov 29 136 Hofstra L 58-78 22%     2 - 6 -18.3 -9.2 -10.0
  Sun, Nov 30 229 La Salle W 66-60 41%     3 - 6 +2.0 -1.0 +3.6
  Thu, Dec 4 335 Rider W 68-66 75%     4 - 6 1 - 0 -11.5 -2.5 -8.8
  Sun, Dec 7 294 Fairfield W 72-68 66%    
  Wed, Dec 10 247 @Princeton L 64-69 33%    
  Sun, Dec 14 189 @Vermont L 66-73 25%    
  Mon, Dec 29 255 @Sacred Heart L 73-77 35%    
  Fri, Jan 2 307 Mount St. Mary's W 71-66 67%    
  Sun, Jan 4 310 Manhattan W 75-70 68%    
  Fri, Jan 9 161 @Siena L 62-71 19%    
  Sun, Jan 11 329 @St. Peter's W 66-65 51%    
  Sat, Jan 17 154 Quinnipiac L 71-74 37%    
  Mon, Jan 19 159 @Marist L 57-66 21%    
  Thu, Jan 22 174 @Iona L 70-78 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 329 St. Peter's W 69-63 72%    
  Sun, Feb 1 255 Sacred Heart W 76-74 58%    
  Thu, Feb 5 307 @Mount St. Mary's L 68-69 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 335 @Rider W 68-67 54%    
  Thu, Feb 12 159 Marist L 60-63 39%    
  Sun, Feb 15 154 @Quinnipiac L 68-77 20%    
  Fri, Feb 20 161 Siena L 65-68 39%    
  Sun, Feb 22 174 Iona L 73-75 42%    
  Fri, Feb 27 353 @Canisius W 66-62 64%    
  Sun, Mar 1 347 @Niagara W 66-64 58%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 2.0 0.6 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 4.0 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 5.0 4.0 1.1 0.1 12.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 5.6 4.7 1.1 0.1 13.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 5.4 5.0 1.2 0.1 13.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.4 4.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.3 4.0 1.4 0.1 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.0 0.1 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 6.3 9.0 11.4 13.8 14.0 12.9 10.5 7.2 5.0 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 79.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 58.1% 0.8    0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 25.5% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 45.2% 45.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.5% 16.3% 16.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.3% 13.2% 13.2% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
15-5 2.4% 14.0% 14.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.0
14-6 5.0% 10.1% 10.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 4.5
13-7 7.2% 6.7% 6.7% 15.6 0.2 0.3 6.7
12-8 10.5% 5.2% 5.2% 15.7 0.2 0.4 9.9
11-9 12.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 12.5
10-10 14.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 13.7
9-11 13.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.6
8-12 11.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.3
7-13 9.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.0
6-14 6.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.3
5-15 3.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-16 1.5% 1.5
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 96.8 0.0%