South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#147
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#189
Pace71.6#134
Improvement+0.7#129

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#215
First Shot-1.0#207
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#222
Layup/Dunks-1.8#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#95
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#160
Freethrows-1.6#267
Improvement-1.1#269

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#97
First Shot-0.4#185
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#39
Layups/Dunks+2.2#97
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#113
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#266
Freethrows-1.4#274
Improvement+1.7#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.3% 32.2% 25.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 86.7% 91.2% 75.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 96.0% 92.7%
Conference Champion 41.1% 43.8% 34.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four1.2% 0.9% 1.9%
First Round29.8% 31.8% 25.1%
Second Round1.6% 1.9% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 70.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 415 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 277 Merrimack W 75-66 75%     1 - 0 +2.6 -0.2 +2.8
  Sun, Nov 9 87 @Northern Iowa L 58-65 22%     1 - 1 +1.9 -1.8 +3.0
  Wed, Nov 12 80 @Oregon L 69-83 18%     1 - 2 -3.8 +0.3 -4.0
  Fri, Nov 21 334 Georgia St. W 105-58 90%     2 - 2 +33.5 +25.6 +6.8
  Tue, Nov 25 90 Utah Valley L 52-75 31%     2 - 3 -17.3 -16.5 -0.8
  Wed, Nov 26 125 UC Irvine L 52-64 42%     2 - 4 -9.2 -16.5 +8.0
  Wed, Dec 3 263 @Northern Arizona W 75-62 63%     3 - 4 +10.3 +2.1 +8.5
  Sat, Dec 6 187 Idaho W 75-69 70%    
  Tue, Dec 9 316 @Ball St. W 72-66 72%    
  Mon, Dec 15 106 Wyoming L 71-75 37%    
  Fri, Dec 19 221 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-74 65%    
  Mon, Dec 29 9 @Arizona L 65-87 2%    
  Thu, Jan 1 252 Nebraska Omaha W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Jan 3 340 @North Dakota W 77-68 79%    
  Thu, Jan 8 291 Denver W 81-70 84%    
  Wed, Jan 14 149 @North Dakota St. L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Jan 17 339 UMKC W 79-64 91%    
  Thu, Jan 22 166 @St. Thomas L 72-74 45%    
  Wed, Jan 28 252 @Nebraska Omaha W 77-74 61%    
  Sat, Jan 31 311 Oral Roberts W 83-71 87%    
  Wed, Feb 4 166 St. Thomas W 75-71 66%    
  Sat, Feb 7 276 South Dakota W 84-74 82%    
  Thu, Feb 12 291 @Denver W 78-73 66%    
  Sat, Feb 14 311 @Oral Roberts W 80-74 71%    
  Wed, Feb 18 149 North Dakota St. W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 340 North Dakota W 80-65 91%    
  Thu, Feb 26 339 @UMKC W 76-67 78%    
  Sat, Feb 28 276 @South Dakota W 81-77 64%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.6 7.7 12.0 10.7 6.3 1.6 41.1 1st
2nd 0.5 3.8 8.4 8.1 3.7 0.6 25.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.6 4.6 1.1 0.1 16.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.9 0.1 4.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 5.7 8.9 12.6 15.9 17.0 15.8 11.3 6.3 1.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
15-1 100.0% 6.3    6.1 0.1
14-2 94.7% 10.7    9.1 1.5 0.0
13-3 75.9% 12.0    8.2 3.4 0.4 0.0
12-4 45.3% 7.7    3.5 3.3 0.8 0.0
11-5 16.4% 2.6    0.6 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 41.1% 41.1 29.1 9.7 2.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.6% 65.7% 65.7% 12.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5
15-1 6.3% 52.7% 52.7% 13.3 0.0 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.2 3.0
14-2 11.3% 45.9% 45.9% 13.8 0.2 1.7 2.3 0.9 0.0 6.1
13-3 15.8% 39.4% 39.4% 14.2 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.0 0.2 9.6
12-4 17.0% 33.2% 33.2% 14.5 0.1 0.5 2.3 2.4 0.4 11.3
11-5 15.9% 25.4% 25.4% 14.8 0.2 1.0 2.3 0.6 11.8
10-6 12.6% 20.0% 20.0% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 10.1
9-7 8.9% 15.1% 15.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8 7.6
8-8 5.7% 11.8% 11.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 5.0
7-9 2.8% 7.0% 7.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.6
6-10 1.4% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.1 1.3
5-11 0.6% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.2% 0.2
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 30.3% 30.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.1 1.4 5.2 10.3 9.9 3.5 69.7 0.0%