Preseason Rankings
Summit League
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
148 St. Thomas 26.1%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 5 +0.4      +1.8 116 -1.3 211 69.2 142 0.0 1 0.0 1
151 South Dakota St. 25.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 5 +0.3      +1.3 128 -1.0 196 71.6 79 0.0 1 0.0 1
182 Nebraska Omaha 17.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 9 - 6 -1.5      +1.1 130 -2.6 265 68.5 170 0.0 1 0.0 1
208 North Dakota St. 13.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 7 -2.8      +0.1 159 -2.9 273 63.6 299 0.0 1 0.0 1
294 South Dakota 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 9 -7.3      -0.2 166 -7.2 357 83.8 3 0.0 1 0.0 1
301 UMKC 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 9 -7.7      -5.9 330 -1.8 231 62.4 330 0.0 1 0.0 1
310 Oral Roberts 3.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 6 - 9 -8.4      -2.7 249 -5.7 341 68.1 181 0.0 1 0.0 1
315 North Dakota 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 10 -8.8      -3.0 263 -5.8 343 71.6 81 0.0 1 0.0 1
321 Denver 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 10 -9.5      -4.5 303 -4.9 323 66.4 222 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
St. Thomas 2.6 37.0 22.6 14.8 10.1 6.5 4.4 2.5 1.5 0.6
South Dakota St. 2.6 36.0 22.7 15.0 10.5 6.8 4.3 2.6 1.5 0.7
Nebraska Omaha 3.7 15.8 17.9 17.5 15.2 12.2 9.2 6.1 4.0 2.1
North Dakota St. 3.7 17.7 17.7 17.3 14.3 11.6 8.6 6.3 4.2 2.4
South Dakota 5.6 4.6 7.1 10.0 11.6 14.0 13.9 14.3 13.1 11.4
UMKC 5.7 4.1 7.0 9.4 11.2 13.3 14.7 14.5 13.8 12.2
Oral Roberts 6.1 2.4 4.7 7.3 10.0 12.6 14.8 16.2 16.6 15.4
North Dakota 6.1 2.9 4.8 7.4 9.9 12.7 13.9 16.0 16.6 15.9
Denver 6.4 2.1 3.9 6.4 8.3 11.5 13.8 16.7 17.7 19.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
St. Thomas 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.1 5.2 7.3 10.0 11.7 13.9 14.3 12.9 10.1 5.8 2.3
South Dakota St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.2 7.6 10.2 12.1 13.9 14.1 12.5 9.6 5.9 2.1
Nebraska Omaha 9 - 7 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 5.0 7.4 10.0 11.9 13.5 13.9 11.8 10.0 6.7 3.4 1.0
North Dakota St. 9 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.1 4.9 7.6 9.3 11.3 12.7 13.1 11.9 9.9 7.1 4.1 1.9 0.4
South Dakota 7 - 9 0.6 2.1 4.6 7.2 9.9 12.1 12.5 12.6 11.1 9.6 7.2 4.9 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
UMKC 7 - 9 0.7 2.3 4.9 7.8 10.3 11.9 13.0 12.7 10.2 9.3 7.1 4.8 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Oral Roberts 6 - 10 1.0 3.0 6.2 9.6 11.9 13.7 13.3 12.4 10.2 7.7 5.2 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
North Dakota 6 - 10 1.1 3.2 6.4 9.7 12.2 13.1 13.1 11.6 10.1 7.5 5.3 3.4 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Denver 6 - 10 1.5 4.2 7.8 11.0 12.9 13.7 13.1 11.2 8.7 6.5 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Thomas 37.0% 26.3 8.6 1.8 0.3 0.0
South Dakota St. 36.0% 25.6 8.4 1.7 0.3 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 15.8% 9.6 4.6 1.2 0.3 0.0
North Dakota St. 17.7% 11.1 4.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
South Dakota 4.6% 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
UMKC 4.1% 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Oral Roberts 2.4% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Dakota 2.9% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Denver 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. Thomas 26.1% 26.0% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3 4.2 6.1 6.8 5.0 3.2 73.9 0.0%
South Dakota St. 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.2 6.4 6.6 4.9 3.0 74.1 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.6 4.7 4.1 3.4 82.4 0.0%
North Dakota St. 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 86.2 0.0%
South Dakota 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.2 95.7 0.0%
UMKC 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.4 95.8 0.0%
Oral Roberts 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 97.0 0.0%
North Dakota 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.6 97.2 0.0%
Denver 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.5 97.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Thomas 26.1% 1.5% 26.2% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 25.9% 1.6% 25.9% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 17.6% 2.1% 17.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 13.8% 2.2% 13.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 4.3% 1.5% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 4.2% 1.6% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 3.0% 1.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 2.8% 1.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 2.3% 1.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 94.5% 1.0 5.5 91.1 3.4
2nd Round 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7
Sweet Sixteen 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0