North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.8 #297
Expected Predictive Rating -6.6 #273
Pace 70.0 #154
Improvement +5.4 #9

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #234 D C- C+ C B
Defense #325 F D- A- F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #119 1.03 #317 -1.2 #229
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #285 0.65 #316 -2.8 #310
Three Pointers 43% #136 0.97 #245 +0.3 #172
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #280 -3.7 #281
Freethrows 18.2 #157 69% #275 12.7 #187
Second Chance 28.3% #249 1.05 #165 0.30 #223
Turnovers 15.5% #123
Total Offense -2.4 #234

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #94 1.26 #307 -4.0 #310
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #342 0.79 #245 +2.1 #37
Three Pointers 44% #94 1.16 #341 -4.8 #340
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #348 -6.7 #349
Freethrows 22.5 #351 71% #123 16.0 #343
Second Chance 34.1% #310 1.14 #294 0.39 #324
Turnovers 19.8% #32
Total Defense -5.4 #325

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #77 2.1% #345
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.4% #315 10.8% #345
Possession Length 18.1 #257 16.5 #52
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #308 0.18 #214
Improvement +7.4 #1 -2.0 #294

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.1% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3.2% 6.8% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 70.8% 89.0% 60.9%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four2.0% 2.3% 1.8%
First Round1.4% 1.9% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Away) - 35.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 410 - 812 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 17 @Alabama L 62 - 91 1% -17  0 - 1 -8 -8 C+ F B +1 D+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 293 UC Riverside L 70 - 74 61% -5  0 - 2 -15 -8 C F C+ -6 F B A+
 Sun, Nov 9 207 Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 93 43% -4  0 - 3 -14 +3 C C+ A+ -16 F F A
 Sat, Nov 15 293 @UC Riverside W 76 - 74 38% +0  1 - 3 -3 -3 C F C +0 F C A+
 Wed, Nov 19 44 @Creighton L 60 - 75 3% -9  1 - 4 -1 -3 D D B+ +1 A+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 22 252 Coastal Carolina L 58 - 75 39% -10  1 - 5 -22 -19 F D D- -2 F B+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 356 @Western Illinois W 78 - 69 62% -1  2 - 5 -2 -1 C F F -1 F D- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 106 @Hawaii L 55 - 92 9% -14  2 - 6 -30 -15 F D F -11 F C A+
 Wed, Dec 3 183 @Idaho L 58 - 90 19% -15  2 - 7 -31 -15 C- F F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 161 Montana L 75 - 79 33% +1  2 - 8 -7 +1 F A+ C -8 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 356 Western Illinois L 66 - 69 OT 81% -1  2 - 9 -20 -15 F C+ F -5 A+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 130 Winthrop W 90 - 88 26% -2  3 - 9 +1 +16 C- A+ A+ -16 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 14 @Nebraska L 55 - 78 1% -3  3 - 10 -2 -5 C F B- +2 A- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 321 Oral Roberts W 72 - 61 69% +10  4 - 10 1 - 0 -2 -6 F D+ F +4 A D+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 170 South Dakota St. W 90 - 87 OT 36% +1  5 - 10 2 - 0 -1 +15 B A+ B -16 F F B
 Thu, Jan 8 261 @Nebraska Omaha L 79 - 90 31% -7  5 - 11 2 - 1 -14 +6 D C A -20 F D B
 Sat, Jan 10 353 @UMKC W 81 - 79 59% -2  6 - 11 3 - 1 -8 +10 D- C A+ -18 F B- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 131 St. Thomas L 80 - 91 27% -5  6 - 12 3 - 2 -12 +3 C A+ D -15 F D- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 283 South Dakota W 96 - 80 58% +11  7 - 12 4 - 2 +6 +17 C+ A+ A+ -10 F A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 321 @Oral Roberts W 79 - 62 47% +8  8 - 12 5 - 2 +10 +8 D+ C A+ +3 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 280 @Denver L 81 - 85 35%
 Thu, Jan 29 131 @St. Thomas L 71 - 84 12%
 Thu, Feb 5 261 Nebraska Omaha W 77 - 76 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 280 Denver W 84 - 82 57%
 Wed, Feb 11 283 @South Dakota L 81 - 85 36%
 Sat, Feb 14 147 North Dakota St. L 72 - 78 30%
 Thu, Feb 19 353 UMKC W 80 - 72 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 170 @South Dakota St. L 73 - 83 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 147 @North Dakota St. L 69 - 81 14%
Totals 11 - 18 8 - 8 -8 -2 D C- C+ -5 F D- A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 7.2 8.5 3.0 0.3 0.0 20.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.9 13.9 14.2 4.3 0.3 35.6 4th
5th 1.0 9.8 9.9 1.9 0.1 22.8 5th
6th 0.2 4.4 6.3 1.3 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 1.3 8.3 19.6 26.9 23.4 13.7 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 68.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-4 23.3% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.3% 3.7% 3.7% 15.0 0.0 0.3
12-4 1.4% 6.2% 6.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3
11-5 5.2% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.1 0.2 4.9
10-6 13.7% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 13.0
9-7 23.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.6 22.8
8-8 26.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.5 26.4
7-9 19.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 19.4
6-10 8.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.2
5-11 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%