North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.1#340
Expected Predictive Rating-10.4#312
Pace72.1#118
Improvement-3.3#346

Offense
Total Offense-7.0#345
First Shot-3.3#266
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#349
Layup/Dunks-0.1#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#206
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#235
Freethrows-1.0#236
Improvement-2.0#333

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#312
First Shot-2.4#250
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#293
Layups/Dunks-3.8#308
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#153
Freethrows-0.9#239
Improvement-1.2#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.2% 2.7% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 12.6% 17.0% 10.7%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 38.7% 33.1% 41.0%
First Four0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 29.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 47 - 118 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 11 @Alabama L 62-91 1%     0 - 1 -7.2 -7.1 +1.5
  Thu, Nov 6 271 UC Riverside L 70-74 42%     0 - 2 -13.1 -8.3 -4.8
  Sun, Nov 9 253 Cal St. Northridge L 85-93 39%     0 - 3 -16.2 +2.6 -18.2
  Sat, Nov 15 271 @UC Riverside W 76-74 22%     1 - 3 -1.1 -3.1 +1.9
  Wed, Nov 19 45 @Creighton L 60-75 2%     1 - 4 -0.7 -1.9 -0.1
  Sat, Nov 22 260 Coastal Carolina L 58-75 30%     1 - 5 -22.6 -18.2 -3.4
  Sun, Nov 23 361 @Western Illinois W 78-69 51%     2 - 5 -2.5 -4.6 +1.7
  Fri, Nov 28 108 @Hawaii L 55-92 5%     2 - 6 -29.7 -16.3 -9.9
  Wed, Dec 3 187 @Idaho L 58-90 13%     2 - 7 -31.0 -15.3 -15.9
  Sat, Dec 6 197 Montana L 74-80 29%    
  Sat, Dec 13 361 Western Illinois W 73-67 73%    
  Thu, Dec 18 107 Winthrop L 72-84 12%    
  Sun, Dec 21 49 @Nebraska L 63-88 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 311 Oral Roberts W 78-77 51%    
  Sat, Jan 3 147 South Dakota St. L 68-77 21%    
  Thu, Jan 8 252 @Nebraska Omaha L 72-81 21%    
  Sat, Jan 10 339 @UMKC L 71-74 40%    
  Thu, Jan 15 166 St. Thomas L 70-77 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 276 South Dakota L 79-81 43%    
  Thu, Jan 22 311 @Oral Roberts L 75-81 31%    
  Sat, Jan 24 291 @Denver L 73-80 26%    
  Thu, Jan 29 166 @St. Thomas L 67-80 11%    
  Thu, Feb 5 252 Nebraska Omaha L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Feb 7 291 Denver L 76-77 46%    
  Wed, Feb 11 276 @South Dakota L 76-84 25%    
  Sat, Feb 14 149 North Dakota St. L 67-76 22%    
  Thu, Feb 19 339 UMKC W 74-71 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 147 @South Dakota St. L 65-80 9%    
  Sat, Feb 28 149 @North Dakota St. L 64-79 10%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 5.8 3.8 0.6 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.6 8.4 5.2 0.8 0.0 18.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 6.0 9.4 5.6 0.9 0.0 23.5 8th
9th 1.3 4.5 8.7 7.9 3.8 0.6 0.0 26.8 9th
Total 1.3 4.6 10.2 14.3 17.0 17.0 13.4 9.8 6.2 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 55.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 51.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-5 13.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 2.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.2% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 0.8% 6.9% 6.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-6 1.7% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.1 1.7
9-7 3.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 3.5
8-8 6.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 6.1
7-9 9.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 9.6
6-10 13.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.3
5-11 17.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.9
4-12 17.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.9
3-13 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.3
2-14 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.2
1-15 4.6% 4.6
0-16 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%