Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#87
Expected Predictive Rating+8.9#70
Pace60.9#356
Improvement-0.8#248

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#152
First Shot+3.6#80
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#343
Layup/Dunks+4.1#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#144
Freethrows-1.9#283
Improvement-0.9#247

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#41
First Shot+2.6#93
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#31
Layups/Dunks+1.1#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#92
Freethrows+0.9#130
Improvement+0.0#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.4% 24.4% 18.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.1% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.8 11.7 12.1
.500 or above 96.8% 98.5% 93.8%
.500 or above in Conference 90.5% 92.7% 86.6%
Conference Champion 30.4% 33.6% 24.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
First Round22.1% 24.1% 18.7%
Second Round4.4% 5.2% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Home) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 310 - 412 - 9
Quad 410 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 253 Cal St. Northridge W 86-57 90%     1 - 0 +20.8 +7.9 +12.1
  Sun, Nov 9 147 South Dakota St. W 65-58 78%     2 - 0 +4.7 -0.3 +5.7
  Fri, Nov 14 153 Furman W 70-54 80%     3 - 0 +13.1 +1.2 +13.4
  Tue, Nov 18 330 Northern Illinois W 70-57 95%     4 - 0 +0.3 -1.3 +3.3
  Sat, Nov 22 125 @UC Irvine W 70-69 OT 50%     5 - 0 +6.8 +4.4 +2.4
  Tue, Nov 25 259 Loyola Chicago W 72-51 86%     6 - 0 +15.5 +5.3 +13.0
  Wed, Nov 26 91 Tulsa L 60-63 51%     6 - 1 +2.6 -5.2 +7.4
  Sat, Dec 6 97 Wichita St. W 67-63 64%    
  Sat, Dec 13 141 Oakland W 76-69 76%    
  Wed, Dec 17 204 @Illinois-Chicago W 70-64 70%    
  Mon, Dec 22 42 @St. Mary's L 59-68 20%    
  Mon, Dec 29 214 Valparaiso W 69-57 87%    
  Thu, Jan 1 196 Indiana St. W 74-63 85%    
  Sun, Jan 4 279 @Evansville W 68-59 81%    
  Wed, Jan 7 88 Belmont W 70-67 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 124 @Bradley W 65-64 50%    
  Tue, Jan 13 204 Illinois-Chicago W 73-61 85%    
  Sat, Jan 17 214 @Valparaiso W 66-60 71%    
  Wed, Jan 21 101 @Illinois St. L 65-67 43%    
  Sat, Jan 24 113 Murray St. W 74-69 67%    
  Wed, Jan 28 142 @Southern Illinois W 68-66 55%    
  Sat, Jan 31 279 Evansville W 71-56 92%    
  Fri, Feb 6 124 Bradley W 68-62 70%    
  Mon, Feb 9 113 @Murray St. L 71-72 47%    
  Thu, Feb 12 88 @Belmont L 67-70 40%    
  Sun, Feb 15 128 Drake W 66-60 72%    
  Wed, Feb 18 196 @Indiana St. W 71-66 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 142 Southern Illinois W 71-63 76%    
  Wed, Feb 25 101 Illinois St. W 68-64 64%    
  Sun, Mar 1 128 @Drake W 64-63 52%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.7 6.4 8.0 6.7 3.9 1.6 0.4 30.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.8 7.0 5.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.8 3.9 0.9 0.2 14.9 3rd
4th 0.5 2.8 5.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.5 6.6 8.9 11.4 12.8 14.1 13.0 10.4 7.1 4.0 1.6 0.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
18-2 98.9% 3.9    3.8 0.2
17-3 93.9% 6.7    5.8 0.8 0.0
16-4 77.0% 8.0    5.6 2.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 49.3% 6.4    2.9 2.8 0.7 0.0 0.0
14-6 19.0% 2.7    0.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 30.4% 30.4 20.8 7.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 78.3% 60.8% 17.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 44.7%
19-1 1.6% 64.3% 49.3% 15.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.6 29.6%
18-2 4.0% 48.3% 43.7% 4.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.1 8.2%
17-3 7.1% 38.8% 37.9% 1.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 1.6 1.1 0.1 4.3 1.6%
16-4 10.4% 34.0% 33.6% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 1.2 2.1 0.2 6.9 0.7%
15-5 13.0% 29.2% 29.0% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.2 0.2%
14-6 14.1% 23.4% 23.4% 12.1 0.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 10.8
13-7 12.8% 18.1% 18.1% 12.3 0.1 1.4 0.7 0.0 10.5
12-8 11.4% 14.2% 14.2% 12.5 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.1 9.8
11-9 8.9% 9.7% 9.7% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.0
10-10 6.6% 8.8% 8.8% 13.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 6.1
9-11 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.3
8-12 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 2.5
7-13 1.4% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.4% 21.8% 0.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 6.0 11.5 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 77.6 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.8 18.2 9.1 45.5 27.3