Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#101
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#102
Pace67.3#249
Improvement+3.2#18

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#98
First Shot+4.1#71
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#250
Layup/Dunks-1.8#245
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#72
Freethrows-0.5#210
Improvement+3.1#8

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#113
First Shot-0.9#200
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#40
Layups/Dunks-2.3#265
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#86
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement+0.2#169
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.4% 16.6% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.2 12.4
.500 or above 94.6% 94.9% 83.1%
.500 or above in Conference 85.9% 86.2% 75.1%
Conference Champion 21.9% 22.2% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round16.4% 16.6% 10.1%
Second Round2.8% 2.8% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 96.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 38 - 411 - 10
Quad 411 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 194 @Ohio L 68-72 66%     0 - 1 -3.4 -5.4 +2.0
  Sun, Nov 9 150 Cornell W 76-65 77%     1 - 1 +8.3 -4.7 +12.6
  Fri, Nov 14 32 USC L 67-87 20%     1 - 2 -6.5 +0.0 -6.8
  Sun, Nov 16 286 @Long Beach St. W 82-80 79%     2 - 2 -1.8 +9.5 -11.2
  Sun, Nov 23 260 Coastal Carolina W 94-42 89%     3 - 2 +43.4 +14.2 +26.2
  Thu, Nov 27 186 Charlotte W 79-69 74%     4 - 2 +8.1 +8.7 +0.0
  Fri, Nov 28 153 Furman W 72-65 68%     5 - 2 +7.1 +1.6 +5.8
  Wed, Dec 3 258 Eastern Kentucky W 89-78 89%     6 - 2 +2.6 +8.3 -5.8
  Sat, Dec 6 350 Chicago St. W 84-64 97%    
  Sat, Dec 13 51 Utah St. L 71-77 29%    
  Thu, Dec 18 142 @Southern Illinois W 74-73 52%    
  Sun, Dec 21 196 Indiana St. W 80-70 83%    
  Mon, Dec 29 128 @Drake L 69-70 47%    
  Thu, Jan 1 279 Evansville W 76-62 91%    
  Wed, Jan 7 214 @Valparaiso W 71-66 68%    
  Sat, Jan 10 204 Illinois-Chicago W 79-68 83%    
  Wed, Jan 14 196 @Indiana St. W 77-73 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 124 Bradley W 74-69 67%    
  Wed, Jan 21 87 Northern Iowa W 67-65 57%    
  Sun, Jan 25 88 @Belmont L 73-77 36%    
  Wed, Jan 28 113 @Murray St. L 78-80 43%    
  Tue, Feb 3 142 Southern Illinois W 77-70 72%    
  Fri, Feb 6 128 Drake W 72-67 68%    
  Mon, Feb 9 279 @Evansville W 73-65 77%    
  Thu, Feb 12 214 Valparaiso W 74-63 84%    
  Sun, Feb 15 204 @Illinois-Chicago W 76-71 66%    
  Wed, Feb 18 113 Murray St. W 81-77 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 124 @Bradley L 71-72 47%    
  Wed, Feb 25 87 @Northern Iowa L 64-68 36%    
  Sun, Mar 1 88 Belmont W 76-74 57%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.2 6.0 4.6 2.2 0.9 0.2 21.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.7 6.2 4.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.9 6.0 3.9 0.9 0.1 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.7 2.2 0.3 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.8 1.9 0.2 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 1.3 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.8 5.9 8.6 11.0 12.8 13.3 12.9 11.0 8.2 4.9 2.3 0.9 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 98.5% 2.2    2.1 0.1
17-3 92.4% 4.6    4.0 0.6 0.0
16-4 73.9% 6.0    4.1 1.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 47.6% 5.2    2.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-6 18.1% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.9% 21.9 14.0 6.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 51.1% 42.6% 8.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.8%
19-1 0.9% 46.8% 44.5% 2.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 4.1%
18-2 2.3% 40.2% 39.3% 0.9% 11.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 1.5%
17-3 4.9% 36.5% 36.2% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.1 3.1 0.4%
16-4 8.2% 27.7% 27.6% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.9 0.2%
15-5 11.0% 26.8% 26.8% 12.1 0.3 1.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.0
14-6 12.9% 20.2% 20.2% 12.2 0.2 1.7 0.7 0.0 10.3
13-7 13.3% 14.8% 14.8% 12.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 11.3
12-8 12.8% 12.2% 12.2% 12.7 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.2
11-9 11.0% 8.6% 8.6% 13.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 10.1
10-10 8.6% 6.0% 6.0% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.1
9-11 5.9% 3.8% 3.8% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.7
8-12 3.8% 2.8% 2.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7
7-13 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
6-14 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-15 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 16.4% 16.3% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.9 8.2 4.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 83.6 0.1%