Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 #189
Expected Predictive Rating -2.0 #205
Pace 75.5 #38
Improvement -2.7 #302

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #194 C B- C- A- C-
Defense #196 F D A+ F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #38 1.07 #285 +1.7 #116
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #58 0.82 #90 +3.4 #41
Three Pointers 28% #361 1.08 #96 -5.9 #338
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #208 -0.8 #208
Freethrows 20.1 #69 77% #48 15.4 #38
Second Chance 32.4% #135 1.11 #104 0.36 #98
Turnovers 17.5% #249
Total Offense -1.1 #194

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.31 #337 -2.7 #273
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #326 0.90 #347 +0.8 #132
Three Pointers 47% #42 1.08 #268 -4.4 #331
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #344 -6.3 #344
Freethrows 23.6 #360 71% #119 16.8 #355
Second Chance 31.0% #203 1.21 #344 0.38 #309
Turnovers 20.9% #13
Total Defense -0.8 #196

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #241 1.3% #288
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.9% #193 10.8% #344
Possession Length 17.6 #196 15.6 #8
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #48 0.15 #114
Improvement -2.4 #306 -0.3 #209

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 8.0% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 15.1
.500 or above 37.3% 44.8% 17.7%
.500 or above in Conference 31.8% 39.2% 12.9%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 18.9% 12.0% 36.4%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 1.0%
First Round6.9% 7.9% 4.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Home) - 72.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 34 - 55 - 11
Quad 49 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 29 @SMU L 76 - 96 5% -7  0 - 1 -3 +6 D- C D -8 F A+ C
 Wed, Nov 5 43 @LSU L 60 - 96 7% -19  0 - 2 -21 -5 F C+ B+ -17 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85 - 77 61% +13  1 - 2 +3 +15 A+ A+ C+ -11 F D B
 Tue, Nov 11 208 Merrimack W 76 - 62 66% +5  2 - 2 +8 -2 B D F +10 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 41 @Baylor L 81 - 94 7% -10  2 - 3 +2 +9 A+ A+ F -7 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 239 @Rice W 90 - 74 48% +3  3 - 3 +15 +10 A+ F D+ +4 D+ A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 1 49 @Cincinnati L 58 - 76 8% -8  3 - 4 -4 -4 C+ B- F -0 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 88 - 64 95% +9  4 - 4 +3 +3 C- F F -2 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 313 Florida A&M W 78 - 54 83% +14  5 - 4 +12 -7 F A+ F +17 A+ C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 156 @Texas Arlington W 69 - 63 31% +6  6 - 4 1 - 0 +9 +6 B- B- A+ +4 C C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 107 Utah Valley L 85 - 91 38% -2  6 - 5 1 - 1 -5 +7 D+ C A+ -11 F B- B
 Sat, Jan 3 142 California Baptist W 81 - 76 OT 51% +1  7 - 5 2 - 1 +3 +3 A- F F -1 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 258 Abilene Christian L 80 - 84 73% -7  7 - 6 2 - 2 -12 +2 F A+ C+ -14 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 284 @Southern Utah L 105 - 106 OT 58% -5  7 - 7 2 - 3 -5 +8 B A+ F -13 F F C
 Sat, Jan 17 233 @Utah Tech L 71 - 75 47% -6  7 - 8 2 - 4 -5 -1 F F A+ -4 F C- A+
 Wed, Jan 21 156 @Texas Arlington L 64 - 71 31% -1  7 - 9 2 - 5 -4 -1 C F F -3 D- C C
 Mon, Jan 26 258 Abilene Christian W 77 - 71 72%
 Thu, Jan 29 107 Utah Valley L 77 - 80 38%
 Sat, Jan 31 233 Utah Tech W 79 - 74 68%
 Thu, Feb 5 142 @California Baptist L 70 - 76 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 284 @Southern Utah W 79 - 77 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 258 @Abilene Christian W 75 - 74 51%
 Thu, Feb 19 284 Southern Utah W 82 - 74 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 233 Utah Tech W 79 - 74 68%
 Thu, Feb 26 107 @Utah Valley L 74 - 83 20%
 Sat, Feb 28 142 @California Baptist L 70 - 76 29%
 Thu, Mar 5 156 Texas Arlington W 72 - 71 53%
Totals 13 - 14 8 - 10 -2 -1 C B- C- -1 F D A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.2 1st
2nd 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.4 5.7 1.5 0.1 13.8 3rd
4th 0.1 3.5 12.3 9.9 2.2 0.1 28.0 4th
5th 0.2 4.0 11.8 7.8 0.9 0.0 24.8 5th
6th 0.3 3.3 8.3 4.5 0.5 17.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.6 4.4 2.1 0.2 10.2 7th
Total 0.1 0.9 2.9 7.9 14.5 20.1 21.8 16.5 9.8 4.2 1.1 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 89.7% 0.2    0.1 0.0
12-6 48.9% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 11.4% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 28.2% 28.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 1.1% 28.3% 28.3% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
11-7 4.2% 22.8% 22.8% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 3.3
10-8 9.8% 14.9% 14.9% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 8.4
9-9 16.5% 9.1% 9.1% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.0 15.0
8-10 21.8% 6.8% 6.8% 15.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 20.3
7-11 20.1% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.2 0.6 19.3
6-12 14.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 14.1
5-13 7.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 7.8
4-14 2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.1% 0.0 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 14.6 92.8 0.0%