Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#202
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#116
Pace70.6#158
Improvement-0.1#200

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#211
First Shot-1.1#208
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#208
Layup/Dunks+1.0#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#335
Freethrows+1.8#89
Improvement-1.0#258

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#197
First Shot-0.7#195
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#197
Layups/Dunks+3.9#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#245
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#274
Freethrows-1.5#276
Improvement+0.9#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 7.8% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 53.5% 55.1% 28.2%
.500 or above in Conference 53.9% 54.9% 39.0%
Conference Champion 5.9% 6.1% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.3% 8.9% 15.7%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round7.4% 7.6% 4.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Away) - 94.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 33 - 44 - 11
Quad 411 - 314 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 40 @SMU L 76-96 6%     0 - 1 -5.1 +6.8 -11.0
  Wed, Nov 5 29 @LSU L 60-96 5%     0 - 2 -19.2 -3.2 -16.9
  Sat, Nov 8 237 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85-77 68%     1 - 2 +0.5 +11.7 -11.0
  Tue, Nov 11 277 Merrimack W 76-62 74%     2 - 2 +4.6 -4.3 +8.3
  Fri, Nov 14 28 @Baylor L 81-94 5%     2 - 3 +3.8 +9.7 -5.4
  Thu, Nov 20 217 @Rice W 90-74 42%     3 - 3 +15.6 +11.3 +3.3
  Mon, Dec 1 68 @Cincinnati L 58-76 10%     3 - 4 -6.6 -4.8 -1.7
  Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 81-64 94%    
  Fri, Dec 19 345 Florida A&M W 80-68 87%    
  Mon, Dec 29 190 @Texas Arlington L 70-73 37%    
  Thu, Jan 1 90 Utah Valley L 70-75 32%    
  Sat, Jan 3 130 California Baptist L 69-71 45%    
  Thu, Jan 8 234 Abilene Christian W 70-65 67%    
  Thu, Jan 15 320 @Southern Utah W 76-72 63%    
  Sat, Jan 17 254 @Utah Tech L 71-72 49%    
  Wed, Jan 21 190 @Texas Arlington L 70-73 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 234 Abilene Christian W 70-65 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 90 Utah Valley L 70-75 31%    
  Sat, Jan 31 254 Utah Tech W 75-69 69%    
  Thu, Feb 5 130 @California Baptist L 66-74 25%    
  Sat, Feb 7 320 @Southern Utah W 76-72 62%    
  Sat, Feb 14 234 @Abilene Christian L 67-68 46%    
  Thu, Feb 19 320 Southern Utah W 79-69 80%    
  Sat, Feb 21 254 Utah Tech W 75-69 69%    
  Thu, Feb 26 90 @Utah Valley L 67-78 16%    
  Sat, Feb 28 130 @California Baptist L 66-74 25%    
  Thu, Mar 5 190 Texas Arlington W 73-70 58%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 4.1 4.7 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.9 7.8 5.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 22.2 3rd
4th 0.4 2.9 7.3 7.3 3.3 0.5 0.1 21.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.2 6.6 4.3 1.1 0.1 17.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 2.0 3.9 4.0 1.7 0.2 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.4 7th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 6.1 9.0 11.3 13.2 13.5 13.0 10.5 7.5 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.4% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 87.9% 1.2    1.0 0.2
14-4 62.6% 1.7    1.1 0.6 0.0
13-5 31.7% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.1
12-6 9.1% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.6 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 37.5% 37.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 45.3% 45.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.4% 32.3% 32.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.8% 32.1% 32.1% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9
13-5 4.9% 22.7% 22.7% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.8
12-6 7.5% 15.9% 15.9% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 6.3
11-7 10.5% 10.6% 10.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 9.4
10-8 13.0% 8.2% 8.2% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 11.9
9-9 13.5% 4.8% 4.8% 15.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 12.9
8-10 13.2% 3.9% 3.9% 15.5 0.3 0.3 12.7
7-11 11.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.0
6-12 9.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.9
5-13 6.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.1
4-14 3.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.8
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.5 2.3 1.0 92.4 0.0%