IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.8	#268
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.5	#83
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.5	#278

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.3	#250

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.4%	10.6%	5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.4	14.0	14.7

.500 or above	17.1%	40.4%	15.8%
.500 or above in Conference	32.1%	50.9%	31.0%
Conference Champion	4.9%	11.7%	4.6%
Last Place in Conference	28.8%	14.1%	29.6%

First Four	1.3%	1.2%	1.3%
First Round	5.1%	10.3%	4.8%
Second Round	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 5.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 8	3 - 13
Quad 4	8 - 6	10 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2025	68	@ Arizona St.	L	65-82	5%
Nov 08, 2025	270	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	77-74	61%
Nov 15, 2025	182	@ Nebraska Omaha	L	71-78	25%
Nov 17, 2025	19	@ Gonzaga	L	65-90	1%
Nov 19, 2025	124	@ Washington St.	L	71-82	16%
Nov 28, 2025	207	@ Robert Morris	L	69-75	29%
Nov 29, 2025	350	Stetson	W	77-71	71%
Dec 06, 2025	113	@ Oregon St.	L	63-75	14%
Dec 13, 2025	48	@ Washington	L	64-84	4%
Dec 18, 2025	263	@ Northern Arizona	L	71-74	38%
Dec 29, 2025	271	@ Utah Tech	L	70-73	40%
Jan 03, 2026	202	Texas Arlington	L	72-73	48%
Jan 08, 2026	119	@ Utah Valley	L	66-77	17%
Jan 10, 2026	169	@ California Baptist	L	66-74	25%
Jan 15, 2026	274	Tarleton St.	W	69-66	61%
Jan 17, 2026	175	Abilene Christian	L	71-73	45%
Jan 21, 2026	119	Utah Valley	L	69-74	33%
Jan 24, 2026	271	@ Utah Tech	L	70-73	40%
Jan 29, 2026	202	@ Texas Arlington	L	70-76	29%
Jan 31, 2026	175	@ Abilene Christian	L	68-76	27%
Feb 07, 2026	274	Tarleton St.	W	69-66	60%
Feb 12, 2026	169	California Baptist	L	69-71	44%
Feb 14, 2026	202	@ Texas Arlington	L	70-76	30%
Feb 19, 2026	274	@ Tarleton St.	L	66-69	41%
Feb 21, 2026	175	@ Abilene Christian	L	68-76	27%
Feb 28, 2026	271	Utah Tech	W	73-70	60%
Mar 05, 2026	119	Utah Valley	L	69-74	34%
Mar 07, 2026	169	California Baptist	L	69-71	44%
Projected Record						10 - 18	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.3	0.9	1.2	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0		4.9	1st
2nd									0.0	0.2	1.3	2.7	2.5	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0				8.7	2nd
3rd								0.1	0.9	3.2	4.2	2.5	0.8	0.1	0.0						11.8	3rd
4th						0.0	0.4	2.4	5.2	4.6	1.7	0.3	0.0								14.6	4th
5th				0.0	0.2	1.6	4.8	6.5	3.9	0.9	0.1										18.1	5th
6th			0.2	1.3	4.0	6.6	5.5	2.5	0.4	0.0											20.5	6th
7th	0.8	2.3	4.3	5.5	4.8	2.6	0.8	0.1													21.3	7th

Total	0.8	2.3	4.6	6.8	9.1	10.8	11.5	11.5	10.4	8.8	7.3	5.9	4.3	2.7	1.6	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.0			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
16-2	97.9%	0.4		0.4	0.0
15-3	88.4%	0.8		0.7	0.1
14-4	70.3%	1.1		0.8	0.3	0.0
13-5	43.3%	1.2		0.6	0.5	0.0	0.0
12-6	21.2%	0.9		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0
11-7	5.2%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
10-8	0.5%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.9%	4.9		3.1	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		87.8%	87.8%		11.6										0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0				0.0
17-1	0.2%		53.9%	53.9%		12.1												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
16-2	0.4%		49.0%	49.0%		12.8												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2
15-3	1.0%		40.1%	40.1%		13.2												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.6
14-4	1.6%		31.5%	31.5%		13.5												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	1.1
13-5	2.7%		25.3%	25.3%		14.2													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	2.0
12-6	4.3%		20.8%	20.8%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	3.4
11-7	5.9%		14.7%	14.7%		16.4													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	5.0
10-8	7.3%		8.0%	8.0%		16.5														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	6.8
9-9	8.8%		4.6%	4.6%		17.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	8.4
8-10	10.4%		3.3%	3.3%		18.1														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	10.1
7-11	11.5%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																0.0	0.2	11.3
6-12	11.5%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	11.4
5-13	10.8%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
4-14	9.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.0
3-15	6.8%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	6.8
2-16	4.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.6
1-17	2.3%																							2.3
0-18	0.8%																							0.8

Total	100%		5.4%	5.4%	0.0%	15.4										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.3	1.4	1.9	94.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%