Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.9 #284
Expected Predictive Rating -7.6 #289
Pace 73.9 #62
Improvement +9.5 #1

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #308 D+ C- F F C+
Defense #224 D+ C D- B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #93 1.16 #170 +2.0 #107
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #178 0.58 #351 -1.9 #276
Three Pointers 38% #253 0.93 #282 -3.3 #295
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #269 -3.2 #268
Freethrows 13.4 #346 69% #301 9.2 #355
Second Chance 28.6% #241 1.01 #234 0.29 #241
Turnovers 19.4% #336
Total Offense -5.3 #308

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #90 1.11 #116 -0.9 #210
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #117 0.79 #249 -1.0 #265
Three Pointers 36% #309 1.18 #354 -0.5 #201
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #260 -2.4 #260
Freethrows 15.0 #48 71% #115 10.6 #50
Second Chance 32.2% #255 0.97 #84 0.31 #168
Turnovers 14.0% #320
Total Defense -1.6 #224

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #154 0.1% #172
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.8% #288 4.7% #267
Possession Length 17.1 #151 16.4 #41
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #178 0.18 #218
Improvement +3.2 #34 +6.3 #2

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.8% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 10.8% 22.2% 6.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 46.2% 26.1% 54.4%
First Four1.0% 1.6% 0.8%
First Round0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Away) - 28.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 103 - 16
Quad 45 - 68 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 88 @Arizona St. L 64 - 81 7% -11  0 - 1 -8 -9 F B- D- +2 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 218 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 95 48% -11  0 - 2 -29 -6 D- D- B- -23 F C- C
 Sat, Nov 15 261 @Nebraska Omaha L 85 - 90 33% -3  0 - 3 -8 +5 B F C -12 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 6 @Gonzaga L 50 - 122 1% -34  0 - 4 -48 -19 F F F -19 F F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 141 @Washington St. L 74 - 98 15% -12  0 - 5 -20 -1 A- F F -18 D F F
 Fri, Nov 28 200 @Robert Morris L 54 - 61 24% -11  0 - 6 -7 -16 F C- F +9 A+ B- D-
 Sat, Nov 29 332 Stetson W 70 - 68 65% -3  1 - 6 -9 -8 F F F -1 D+ D- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 195 @Oregon St. L 70 - 81 23% -11  1 - 7 -10 -3 D- A+ F -7 F B- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 47 @Washington L 69 - 105 4% -18  1 - 8 -22 +1 A F C+ -22 F C+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 315 @Northern Arizona L 57 - 65 48% -0  1 - 9 -14 -16 F F F +1 B- D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 233 @Utah Tech L 66 - 80 29% -2  1 - 10 0 - 1 -15 -9 F D+ F -6 D D+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 156 Texas Arlington L 77 - 86 35% -1  1 - 11 0 - 2 -12 +3 B D+ D -15 F A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 8 107 @Utah Valley L 72 - 89 10% -10  1 - 12 0 - 3 -10 +1 C+ C- C -10 F C C+
 Sat, Jan 10 142 @California Baptist L 55 - 58 15% -6  1 - 13 0 - 4 +1 -7 F A+ F +7 A+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 15 189 Tarleton St. W 106 - 105 OT 42% +5  2 - 13 1 - 4 -4 +7 C+ B+ B- -11 F F C
 Sat, Jan 17 258 Abilene Christian W 74 - 52 55% +11  3 - 13 2 - 4 +14 -3 C- C F +16 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 21 107 Utah Valley W 84 - 70 22% +4  4 - 13 3 - 4 +15 +12 A+ A F +4 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 233 @Utah Tech L 71 - 77 29%
 Thu, Jan 29 156 @Texas Arlington L 65 - 75 17%
 Sat, Jan 31 258 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 74 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 189 Tarleton St. L 77 - 79 43%
 Thu, Feb 12 142 California Baptist L 68 - 73 32%
 Sat, Feb 14 156 @Texas Arlington L 65 - 75 17%
 Thu, Feb 19 189 @Tarleton St. L 74 - 82 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 258 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 74 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 233 Utah Tech W 74 - 73 50%
 Thu, Mar 5 107 Utah Valley L 72 - 80 23%
 Sat, Mar 7 142 California Baptist L 68 - 73 32%
Totals 7 - 21 6 - 12 -7 -5 D+ C- F -2 D+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 6.9 3.6 0.4 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.3 4.6 10.7 5.1 0.4 21.0 5th
6th 0.9 7.4 13.3 5.8 0.4 27.7 6th
7th 3.7 10.0 11.9 4.5 0.4 30.5 7th
Total 3.7 10.9 19.6 22.6 19.4 13.0 6.9 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 57.1% 0.0    0.0
12-6 43.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 8.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.8% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 2.9% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.7
9-9 6.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 6.7
8-10 13.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 12.8
7-11 19.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 19.2
6-12 22.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 22.4
5-13 19.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.6
4-14 10.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.9
3-15 3.7% 3.7
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%