Longwood
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.6 261
Expected Predictive Rating -7.3 285
Pace 70.7 125
Improvement +4.5 32

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #284 D+ C- D- C+ C-
Defense C- #223 D- B B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 170 59% 158 +0.5 160
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 124 36% 253 +0.4 151
Three Pointers 38% 244 29% 343 -4.3 320
1st FG Attempt 0.95 284 -3.5 286
Second Chance 32.3% 137 0.92 314 0.30 208
Turnovers 20.1% 340
Freethrows 0.32 129 74% 118 0.24 121
Total Offense -4.2 284

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 136 67% 351 -4.4 323
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 345 39% 205 +2.2 28
Three Pointers 45% 60 35% 231 -3.0 308
1st FG Attempt 1.12 337 -5.2 337
Second Chance 28.8% 105 0.89 29 0.26 53
Turnovers 18.5% 88
Freethrows 0.35 309 71% 96 0.25 294
Total Defense -1.5 223

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.3 230 +0.9 331
Shot Type Accuracy -3.1 293 +4.1 325
Possession Length 16.8 123 17.3 192
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 247 0.18 205
Improvement -0.4 #208 +4.8 #13

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 14% 23% 4%
.500 or above in Conference 52% 72% 31%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 412 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 99 @Pittsburgh L 60 - 78 10% -5  5% 0 - 1 D -10 F -12 F D- A+ C+ +2 D+ B+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 222 James Madison W 82 - 72 52% +8  86% 1 - 1 C+ +4 C+ +2 F+ D B C+ +2 C- A D+
 Sat, Nov 15 361 Binghamton W 90 - 82 90% +14  92% 2 - 1 D- -12 C +0 D C+ D- F -12 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 348 Maryland Eastern Shore L 82 - 83 2OT 82% -3  15% 2 - 2 F+ -16 F+ -9 F B F D -7 F B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 200 @Columbia L 70 - 95 28% -13  1% 2 - 3 F -25 F+ -8 B+ F F F -15 F D- D
 Fri, Nov 28 181 Siena L 63 - 70 34% -3  26% 2 - 4 D -8 F -11 F B+ F B- +3 F A B
 Sat, Nov 29 338 Maine W 65 - 61 72% +3  85% 3 - 4 D+ -8 D -6 A F F C -1 C F C+
 Sun, Nov 30 258 @American L 66 - 92 38% -8  25% 3 - 5 F -29 F -12 F F A F -16 F F+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 352 @Morgan St. W 84 - 80 69% +1  53% 4 - 5 D+ -7 D+ -3 D A- F D+ -4 F+ B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 359 Delaware St. L 76 - 81 88% -5  8% 4 - 6 F -23 C +0 C D+ F F -24 F A F
 Wed, Dec 17 63 @Wake Forest L 68 - 71 6% -2  22% 4 - 7 B +8 D -5 F B- B+ A+ +14 A- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 339 @NC Central W 74 - 72 61% +2  66% 5 - 7 D+ -7 D- -7 F+ C+ F C+ +0 C B C-
 Wed, Dec 31 130 Winthrop W 82 - 70 33% +7  93% 6 - 7 1 - 0 B +11 B+ +8 B+ A+ D B- +4 A+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 92 @High Point L 67 - 80 10% -7  3% 6 - 8 1 - 1 C- -5 D+ -3 C+ C C- C- -3 D+ C- B-
 Wed, Jan 7 211 @UNC Asheville L 61 - 72 29% -6  1% 6 - 9 1 - 2 D -11 F+ -8 D- D- C+ D+ -4 F+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 272 Presbyterian W 77 - 70 64% +10  97% 7 - 9 2 - 2 C- -2 B +6 B+ B+ C- D- -7 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 233 @Radford L 83 - 85 33% -11  0% 7 - 10 2 - 3 C- -3 B +6 C+ A+ D- F+ -9 F A D+
 Wed, Jan 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 91 - 56 92% +17  96% 8 - 10 3 - 3 B+ +13 B +5 C+ A+ D- A- +8 B- C+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 256 Charleston Southern W 81 - 79 OT 61% +6  82% 9 - 10 4 - 3 D+ -6 F+ -10 C- F F B- +3 D B- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 297 @South Carolina Upstate L 60 - 65 47% -2  24% 9 - 11 4 - 4 D -10 F -16 F+ D- F B+ +6 F+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 31 92 High Point L 59 - 71 22% -6  17% 9 - 12 4 - 5 D -10 F -11 F+ D+ F C+ +0 C+ A+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 363 @Gardner-Webb W 86 - 66 82% +9  99% 10 - 12 5 - 5 C+ +4 C+ +2 A- F C- C+ +2 F A- A
 Sat, Feb 7 130 @Winthrop L 74 - 79 16% -2  20% 10 - 13 5 - 6 C -0 D- -7 F D- B- B+ +8 A- A B+
 Thu, Feb 12 211 UNC Asheville W 72 - 71 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 297 South Carolina Upstate W 75 - 70 69%
 Thu, Feb 19 272 @Presbyterian L 69 - 71 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 256 @Charleston Southern L 75 - 78 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 233 Radford W 79 - 78 56%
Totals 13 - 15 8 - 8 -6 D+ -4 D+ C- D- C- -1 D- B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C C- D- D+ 39% 23% 38% C- D+ C+ D C- D- C+ B- C+ C- F+ C C- D 40% 14% 45% D D- C+ B+ B B- D B- D+
1.03 59% 36% 29% -3 0 0.95 32% 0.9 .30 20% .32 74% .24 1.11 67% 39% 35% +4 +1 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 19% .35 71% .23
Nov
7		 Pittsburgh F F F F F 53% 16% 32% B+ F C- F D- A+ D- A+ D+ C+ F A+ F D- 20% 18% 61% A- D+ B B B+ B+ F C- F
0.86 40% 22% 22% -18 +2 0.70 24% 0.7 .16 10% .22 86% .19 1.11 78% 13% 41% +6 -1 1.11 32% 0.9 .29 20% .62 69% .43
Nov
12		 James Madison C+ D A- F F+ 43% 20% 37% C F+ B F D B A+ A+ A+ C+ D- A+ B C 46% 10% 44% F C- A+ B- A D+ D+ A+ B
1.17 50% 44% 24% -8 0 0.87 35% 0.7 .25 10% .67 86% .57 1.03 67% 20% 30% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.0 .19 16% .32 53% .17
Nov
15		 Binghamton C A+ F F D 37% 13% 50% C D B+ D C+ D- A+ B+ A+ F F F B+ F 44% 10% 46% F F F F F A+ F+ D+ F+
1.21 84% 14% 27% +1 +1 1.06 38% 1.0 .38 15% .48 77% .36 1.11 71% 60% 27% +4 +2 1.13 47% 1.0 .47 28% .43 78% .34
Nov
18		 Maryland Eastern Shore F+ F+ D- F F 46% 27% 27% D+ F A- D+ B F A+ A+ A+ D F B F+ F 33% 22% 44% C- F F A+ B- A+ D A+ B
1.02 50% 31% 23% -10 0 0.81 41% 1.1 .43 24% .55 88% .49 1.03 89% 33% 38% +12 -1 1.24 44% 0.5 .23 30% .26 47% .12
Nov
23		 Columbia F+ F A+ A+ A- 44% 27% 29% D+ B+ F F F F C- F D F C+ B- F F 28% 16% 56% B+ F C- F+ D- D A- D+ B+
0.97 43% 64% 47% +6 0 1.13 19% 0.2 .03 21% .30 65% .19 1.31 56% 33% 53% +15 0 1.32 37% 1.1 .40 19% .21 75% .15
Nov
28		 Siena F B F F F 30% 30% 40% D- F B- B+ B+ F B A+ A B- F F C F 33% 20% 48% D- F A+ C- A B F A+ D
0.93 64% 29% 26% -6 -2 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 28% .33 81% .27 1.04 80% 56% 32% +9 0 1.20 17% 1.0 .17 19% .40 59% .24
Nov
29		 Maine D A A+ A A+ 37% 37% 26% F A C- F F F A+ F A- C A- F B- C 40% 17% 43% D C F F F C+ C+ A+ A-
1.01 71% 50% 40% +12 -2 1.21 37% 0.7 .26 30% .47 62% .29 0.95 47% 50% 30% -5 +1 0.94 28% 1.3 .36 22% .30 47% .14
Nov
30		 American F C- F F F 45% 19% 36% C+ F C- F F A A+ B A+ F F B- F+ F 33% 12% 55% C F C F F+ C F F F
0.92 57% 11% 12% -18 +1 0.68 30% 0.5 .15 14% .68 76% .52 1.28 71% 33% 39% +8 +1 1.20 25% 1.3 .32 17% .50 90% .45
Dec
6		 Morgan St. D+ D F A+ D 46% 18% 36% D+ D C- A+ A- F A+ D- A+ D+ C F A D- 44% 19% 37% F F+ A C+ B+ C C- F F
1.12 56% 14% 43% -1 +1 1.03 33% 1.6 .53 20% .74 66% .49 1.07 54% 70% 25% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.9 .18 19% .36 91% .33
Dec
13		 Delaware St. C A+ A+ F C+ 38% 16% 47% C- C B+ F D+ F A- A+ A+ F F+ F F F 46% 28% 26% F F A- A+ A F F C F
1.14 82% 57% 24% +5 +1 1.13 38% 0.8 .31 24% .39 90% .36 1.21 62% 46% 67% +17 0 1.35 19% 0.4 .07 13% .43 68% .29
Dec
17		 Wake Forest D D- F F F 35% 12% 54% B- F D+ A+ B- B+ B B- B A+ C- F A+ A 38% 17% 45% C A- A+ A+ A+ C- F B- F
0.93 50% 17% 25% -12 +1 0.79 28% 1.3 .35 18% .35 76% .27 0.97 61% 63% 19% -5 0 0.94 17% 0.8 .14 14% .48 73% .35
Dec
20		 NC Central D- C+ A F F+ 38% 18% 44% C F+ B+ D+ C+ F A+ C- A+ C+ F A- A+ C 40% 23% 36% C C B+ B- B C- F D- F
1.04 65% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 44% 0.9 .42 25% .45 71% .32 1.02 84% 27% 12% -4 0 0.94 23% 0.9 .19 17% .51 80% .41
Dec
31		 Winthrop B+ C+ F+ A+ B 52% 13% 35% A B+ A+ C+ A+ D B+ D+ B B- A+ A A+ A+ 48% 8% 44% F+ A+ F+ A+ B- D- F D+ F
1.21 60% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.15 44% 1.1 .50 19% .38 71% .27 1.04 39% 25% 24% -17 +2 0.73 39% 0.8 .30 12% .54 78% .42
Jan
3		 High Point D+ B F C C 44% 16% 40% B- C+ C+ C C C- F+ D- F+ C- F A A+ C- 51% 8% 41% F+ D+ A F C- B- D D+ D
1.01 65% 29% 33% +1 +1 1.07 33% 1.1 .36 23% .23 67% .16 1.21 77% 25% 24% +2 +3 1.12 22% 1.7 .37 15% .39 77% .30
Jan
7		 UNC Asheville F+ C+ F D F+ 42% 17% 42% C D- D F+ D- C+ B+ D B- D+ D+ B+ F D- 35% 26% 39% F F+ F A+ B+ D D A C-
0.96 60% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.92 26% 0.8 .20 16% .37 65% .24 1.13 63% 33% 44% +7 -1 1.13 44% 0.5 .22 16% .39 62% .24
Jan
10		 Presbyterian B B- C A+ A- 43% 20% 37% C- B+ A- C B+ C- D A+ B- D- F D+ F F 43% 11% 45% F F A B+ A C+ C+ B+ B
1.22 62% 40% 44% +8 0 1.18 39% 1.0 .39 16% .26 86% .23 1.11 68% 40% 40% +9 +2 1.23 24% 0.9 .21 21% .32 63% .20
Jan
17		 Radford B C A- A- B 34% 26% 40% F+ C+ A- A+ A+ D- C- D- D F+ F A+ F F 40% 16% 44% C- F B A+ A D+ F A F
1.19 59% 46% 40% +6 -1 1.12 41% 1.4 .56 22% .33 67% .22 1.22 80% 25% 41% +11 +1 1.26 25% 0.6 .16 16% .53 65% .34
Jan
21		 Gardner-Webb B A+ A+ F B- 37% 23% 40% D C+ A+ A A+ D- D+ A C A- A F A- B- 46% 17% 38% C- B- F A+ C+ A+ B- A+ B+
1.30 79% 58% 29% +9 0 1.19 48% 1.3 .61 17% .26 80% .21 0.80 41% 50% 28% -9 +1 0.85 33% 0.6 .21 30% .25 58% .14
Jan
23		 Charleston Southern F+ D- B- B C- 51% 33% 16% C- C- F+ F F F A+ A+ A+ B- B B F D 35% 6% 59% D D D+ A- B- A+ F+ C+ D-
0.99 46% 41% 38% -4 -1 0.92 21% 0.9 .18 21% .52 82% .43 0.97 53% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.13 30% 0.7 .21 27% .33 65% .22
Jan
29		 South Carolina Upstate F C B F F+ 41% 22% 37% D+ F+ B- F D- F F F F B+ F+ A+ D D- 52% 8% 40% F F+ C+ A+ A A+ C- A+ A-
0.85 59% 42% 20% -6 0 0.89 34% 0.8 .26 24% .17 44% .07 0.92 64% 0% 37% +2 +3 1.10 27% 0.5 .14 26% .31 44% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 High Point F B- F D F+ 34% 23% 43% D F+ B- F D+ F F B+ F+ C+ D+ A+ B B- 50% 7% 43% F+ C+ A+ C- A+ C- D+ F+ D-
0.93 63% 18% 30% -6 -1 0.89 36% 0.8 .30 29% .20 78% .16 1.12 65% 0% 30% -1 +3 1.04 17% 1.2 .21 13% .38 81% .31
Feb
4		 Gardner-Webb C+ A+ C C B+ 58% 15% 26% A- A- F F F C- B F C C+ D C C+ F+ 53% 6% 40% F F C- A+ A- A F A D-
1.21 77% 38% 36% +12 +2 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 15% .33 60% .20 0.93 60% 33% 32% -1 +3 1.06 25% 0.5 .13 25% .38 60% .23
Feb
7		 Winthrop D- A F F F+ 25% 31% 43% F F D+ F+ D- B- A+ F A+ B+ F A+ A+ A- 32% 11% 57% C A- A+ F A B+ F F F
0.96 69% 31% 23% -6 -2 0.84 27% 0.9 .24 16% .54 63% .34 1.02 67% 20% 22% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.6 .22 18% .63 88% .55



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 2.6 10.6 4.1 17.3 3rd
4th 2.3 16.6 6.1 25.0 4th
5th 1.9 18.1 11.3 0.2 31.6 5th
6th 0.5 10.2 8.6 0.5 19.7 6th
7th 1.8 3.4 0.1 5.3 7th
8th 0.9 0.2 1.1 8th
9th 9th
Total 3.1 15.7 29.2 31.1 16.9 4.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 4.1% 5.9% 5.9% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.9
9-7 16.9% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.2 0.6 16.1
8-8 31.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8 30.2
7-9 29.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.7 28.5
6-10 15.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 15.5
5-11 3.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.8 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.9 16.7 75.0 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9%
Lose Out 0.8%