Longwood
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#172
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#127
Pace69.4#163
Improvement-0.2#190

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#206
First Shot-3.4#278
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#70
Layup/Dunks+0.7#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#275
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#337
Freethrows+3.0#39
Improvement+1.5#72

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#150
First Shot-1.5#224
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#51
Layups/Dunks-6.2#354
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#154
Freethrows+1.2#102
Improvement-1.7#307
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.3% 21.7% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 92.6% 98.7% 92.0%
.500 or above in Conference 80.4% 86.9% 79.8%
Conference Champion 21.4% 27.9% 20.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.7% 1.9%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round16.2% 21.7% 15.6%
Second Round0.9% 1.4% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 9.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 45 - 7
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 348   Morgan St. W 84-66 90%     1 - 0 +2.8 -1.1 +3.3
  Nov 13, 2024 137   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-62 54%     2 - 0 +12.2 -9.7 +20.1
  Nov 16, 2024 324   Tennessee Martin W 64-62 86%     3 - 0 -10.3 -12.0 +1.8
  Nov 19, 2024 314   @ Binghamton W 66-60 68%     4 - 0 +0.4 +0.7 +0.7
  Nov 22, 2024 129   UAB W 89-81 40%     5 - 0 +9.9 +11.2 -1.5
  Nov 24, 2024 92   McNeese St. L 69-84 26%     5 - 1 -8.9 -0.6 -8.3
  Nov 25, 2024 68   Kansas St. L 64-80 19%     5 - 2 -7.7 -4.6 -3.1
  Dec 05, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-76 93%     6 - 2 -13.1 -0.1 -12.9
  Dec 14, 2024 276   NC Central L 70-77 79%     6 - 3 -16.2 -7.7 -8.7
  Dec 18, 2024 295   @ Campbell W 77-55 63%     7 - 3 +17.8 +8.6 +10.6
  Dec 20, 2024 276   @ NC Central W 82-67 60%     8 - 3 +11.8 +8.2 +3.9
  Dec 29, 2024 49   @ SMU L 68-82 9%    
  Jan 02, 2025 250   @ Presbyterian W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 301   Charleston Southern W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 08, 2025 166   UNC Asheville W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 187   @ Winthrop L 75-77 41%    
  Jan 15, 2025 135   High Point W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 22, 2025 204   @ Radford L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 338   South Carolina Upstate W 83-70 89%    
  Jan 29, 2025 238   @ Gardner-Webb W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 301   @ Charleston Southern W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 204   Radford W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 12, 2025 135   @ High Point L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 250   Presbyterian W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 19, 2025 238   Gardner-Webb W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 166   @ UNC Asheville L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 26, 2025 187   Winthrop W 78-74 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 338   @ South Carolina Upstate W 80-73 75%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.5 6.1 3.3 1.1 0.2 21.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.3 7.6 4.3 0.9 0.1 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.3 7.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 16.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.2 7.0 2.3 0.1 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.6 1.9 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.2 1.7 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 1.2 0.1 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.7 9.1 12.4 15.3 16.0 13.9 11.1 7.0 3.4 1.1 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
14-2 97.5% 3.3    3.0 0.3
13-3 86.8% 6.1    4.6 1.4 0.1
12-4 58.2% 6.5    3.1 2.8 0.5 0.0
11-5 25.1% 3.5    0.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
10-6 4.3% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 21.4% 21.4 12.9 6.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 52.7% 52.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.1% 41.6% 41.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-2 3.4% 38.1% 38.1% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.1
13-3 7.0% 30.8% 30.8% 13.5 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 4.8
12-4 11.1% 24.5% 24.5% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 8.4
11-5 13.9% 19.7% 19.7% 14.2 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.0 11.2
10-6 16.0% 16.4% 16.4% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.1 13.4
9-7 15.3% 12.2% 12.2% 14.7 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 13.4
8-8 12.4% 9.8% 9.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 11.2
7-9 9.1% 7.4% 7.4% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 8.4
6-10 5.7% 5.3% 5.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 5.4
5-11 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.8
4-12 1.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-13 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.4 6.1 4.9 1.2 83.7 0.0%