UAB
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#97
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#179
Pace72.3#83
Improvement+5.8#11

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#42
First Shot+2.9#94
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#18
Layup/Dunks+4.9#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#78
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#280
Freethrows-0.5#210
Improvement+4.1#15

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#212
First Shot-1.3#219
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#174
Layups/Dunks-1.1#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#225
Freethrows-0.5#223
Improvement+1.6#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 11.0% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.8
.500 or above 94.0% 95.6% 83.1%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 97.5% 86.9%
Conference Champion 12.0% 13.1% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.5% 11.0% 7.7%
Second Round1.6% 1.7% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Home) - 86.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 68 - 11
Quad 411 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 211   Vermont L 62-67 84%     0 - 1 -10.4 -3.4 -7.5
  Nov 07, 2024 258   Southern Miss W 98-84 89%     1 - 1 +5.8 +10.0 -5.9
  Nov 10, 2024 220   SE Louisiana W 82-72 85%     2 - 1 +4.0 +6.6 -2.8
  Nov 15, 2024 105   @ High Point L 65-68 45%     2 - 2 +3.4 -7.5 +10.8
  Nov 22, 2024 199   Longwood L 81-89 75%     2 - 3 -9.7 +4.7 -14.1
  Nov 23, 2024 144   Illinois St. L 83-84 65%     2 - 4 +0.4 +2.9 -2.5
  Nov 25, 2024 307   Louisiana W 98-86 89%     3 - 4 +3.9 +19.9 -16.2
  Dec 01, 2024 111   Middle Tennessee L 69-76 68%     3 - 5 -6.6 -1.6 -5.1
  Dec 06, 2024 330   Prairie View W 95-66 95%     4 - 5 +15.6 +11.2 +3.4
  Dec 15, 2024 100   Arkansas St. L 89-98 OT 62%     4 - 6 -7.0 -2.1 -2.9
  Dec 18, 2024 358   Alabama A&M W 96-67 97%     5 - 6 +11.7 +11.4 -1.4
  Dec 22, 2024 332   Alcorn St. W 91-74 95%     6 - 6 +3.3 +19.0 -14.4
  Dec 31, 2024 65   @ North Texas L 75-78 28%     6 - 7 0 - 1 +8.2 +16.7 -8.8
  Jan 04, 2025 251   Tulsa W 83-51 88%     7 - 7 1 - 1 +24.2 +5.8 +17.7
  Jan 07, 2025 148   Tulane W 81-69 74%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +10.4 +6.7 +3.6
  Jan 12, 2025 108   @ Florida Atlantic W 81-76 46%     9 - 7 3 - 1 +11.2 +10.2 +1.0
  Jan 15, 2025 154   @ South Florida W 92-83 57%     10 - 7 4 - 1 +12.4 +23.7 -11.0
  Jan 21, 2025 229   Texas San Antonio W 90-78 87%    
  Jan 26, 2025 43   @ Memphis L 78-87 19%    
  Jan 29, 2025 251   @ Tulsa W 80-73 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 224   Charlotte W 81-69 86%    
  Feb 03, 2025 65   North Texas L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 11, 2025 164   @ East Carolina W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 16, 2025 154   South Florida W 83-76 76%    
  Feb 19, 2025 192   @ Rice W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 23, 2025 110   Temple W 83-78 68%    
  Feb 27, 2025 138   @ Wichita St. W 81-80 51%    
  Mar 02, 2025 43   Memphis L 81-85 39%    
  Mar 06, 2025 108   Florida Atlantic W 86-81 67%    
  Mar 09, 2025 148   @ Tulane W 79-78 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.7 4.6 2.0 0.3 12.0 1st
2nd 0.2 3.1 7.7 6.2 1.7 0.0 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.3 12.0 8.6 2.2 0.1 28.9 3rd
4th 0.3 3.8 8.2 5.3 0.5 0.0 18.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 4.9 3.2 0.6 10.3 5th
6th 0.6 2.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.3 3.1 7th
8th 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.7 12.1 17.3 21.1 18.0 12.1 6.3 2.0 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 99.5% 2.0    1.6 0.3 0.0
15-3 71.8% 4.6    2.4 1.8 0.3
14-4 30.8% 3.7    1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 6.7% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 5.8 4.3 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.3% 25.0% 25.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 2.0% 23.2% 23.2% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.5
15-3 6.3% 21.8% 21.8% 12.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 5.0
14-4 12.1% 16.2% 16.2% 12.3 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.0 10.2
13-5 18.0% 13.5% 13.5% 12.6 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.2 15.6
12-6 21.1% 10.2% 10.2% 12.9 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 19.0
11-7 17.3% 6.9% 6.9% 13.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 16.1
10-8 12.1% 5.0% 5.0% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.5
9-9 6.7% 3.3% 3.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.5
8-10 2.9% 1.4% 1.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 2.8
7-11 0.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 89.5 0.0%