UAB
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#137
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#280
Pace73.6#69
Improvement+0.7#139

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#81
First Shot+2.1#121
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#98
Layup/Dunks+5.0#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#302
Freethrows-1.0#244
Improvement-0.5#223

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#248
First Shot-3.0#278
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#126
Layups/Dunks-2.9#281
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#209
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement+1.2#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 2.6% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 14.4
.500 or above 43.4% 44.2% 18.9%
.500 or above in Conference 49.6% 50.2% 34.2%
Conference Champion 1.7% 1.8% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 5.5% 9.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round2.5% 2.6% 0.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Home) - 96.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 410 - 315 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 194   Vermont L 62-67 72%     0 - 1 -9.6 -3.2 -6.9
  Nov 07, 2024 282   Southern Miss W 98-84 84%     1 - 1 +4.6 +10.1 -7.2
  Nov 10, 2024 230   SE Louisiana W 82-72 78%     2 - 1 +3.3 +7.5 -4.4
  Nov 15, 2024 134   @ High Point L 65-68 38%     2 - 2 +1.4 -7.0 +8.3
  Nov 22, 2024 220   Longwood L 81-89 66%     2 - 3 -10.9 +5.2 -15.8
  Nov 23, 2024 160   Illinois St. L 83-84 56%     2 - 4 -1.1 +3.7 -4.8
  Nov 25, 2024 304   Louisiana W 98-86 81%     3 - 4 +4.2 +19.0 -15.0
  Dec 01, 2024 130   Middle Tennessee L 69-76 60%     3 - 5 -8.2 -2.8 -5.5
  Dec 06, 2024 340   Prairie View W 95-66 92%     4 - 5 +14.8 +8.4 +5.4
  Dec 15, 2024 111   Arkansas St. L 89-98 OT 52%     4 - 6 -8.3 -1.3 -5.1
  Dec 18, 2024 361   Alabama A&M W 90-71 97%    
  Dec 22, 2024 343   Alcorn St. W 85-69 93%    
  Dec 31, 2024 72   @ North Texas L 63-72 20%    
  Jan 04, 2025 247   Tulsa W 83-74 80%    
  Jan 07, 2025 203   Tulane W 81-75 72%    
  Jan 12, 2025 84   @ Florida Atlantic L 81-89 22%    
  Jan 15, 2025 145   @ South Florida L 78-80 42%    
  Jan 21, 2025 234   Texas San Antonio W 87-79 77%    
  Jan 26, 2025 34   @ Memphis L 76-90 10%    
  Jan 29, 2025 247   @ Tulsa W 80-77 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 170   Charlotte W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 03, 2025 72   North Texas L 66-69 38%    
  Feb 11, 2025 164   @ East Carolina L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 16, 2025 145   South Florida W 81-77 63%    
  Feb 19, 2025 197   @ Rice W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 23, 2025 118   Temple W 79-78 55%    
  Feb 27, 2025 100   @ Wichita St. L 77-84 27%    
  Mar 02, 2025 34   Memphis L 79-87 24%    
  Mar 06, 2025 84   Florida Atlantic L 84-86 42%    
  Mar 09, 2025 203   @ Tulane W 78-77 51%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 5.4 2.3 0.2 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 6.2 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.3 5.1 1.0 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.3 1.5 0.0 9.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 4.3 2.3 0.1 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.6 6.5 10.0 13.5 14.6 14.8 12.5 9.7 6.3 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 91.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 71.0% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 34.7% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 23.8% 23.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 24.7% 24.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.7% 16.7% 16.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 1.8% 12.2% 12.2% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5
13-5 3.6% 9.3% 9.3% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.3
12-6 6.3% 6.8% 6.8% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.9
11-7 9.7% 4.9% 4.9% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.2
10-8 12.5% 3.1% 3.1% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.1
9-9 14.8% 1.7% 1.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 14.6
8-10 14.6% 1.0% 1.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.4
7-11 13.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 13.4
6-12 10.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 9.9
5-13 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.5
4-14 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 97.4 0.0%