American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
33 Memphis 66.2%   11   3 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 14 - 4 +12.1      +7.1 30 +5.0 49 76.8 35 +18.7 8 0.0 1
75 Florida Atlantic 20.7%   2 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +7.6      +6.8 33 +0.8 143 74.8 56 +6.0 91 0.0 1
83 North Texas 17.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 9 11 - 7 +6.9      +1.3 137 +5.6 40 57.5 362 +8.9 60 0.0 1
94 Wichita St. 12.6%   4 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 10 - 8 +5.5      +3.0 96 +2.5 103 69.7 168 +14.4 26 0.0 1
103 UAB 7.1%   2 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 8 +4.6      +3.9 69 +0.7 145 69.2 180 -3.2 231 0.0 1
113 Temple 5.9%   3 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +3.7      +2.6 105 +1.1 135 67.0 253 +3.6 125 0.0 1
121 South Florida 4.1%   2 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 10 +2.9      +0.7 159 +2.2 105 69.3 176 -4.2 246 0.0 1
142 Charlotte 2.5%   3 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 10 +1.4      +0.8 155 +0.5 149 59.0 360 +6.7 87 0.0 1
145 East Carolina 2.7%   2 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 8 - 10 +1.0      +0.1 172 +0.8 139 62.8 336 +12.2 36 0.0 1
146 Tulane 2.1%   3 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 10 +0.9      +0.9 154 0.0 170 71.8 100 -0.2 189 0.0 1
147 Tulsa 2.0%   2 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 10 +0.7      +2.0 120 -1.2 209 74.8 57 -1.9 214 0.0 1
171 Rice 1.1%   4 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 15 7 - 11 -0.6      -0.3 184 -0.3 182 65.3 295 +4.8 111 0.0 1
278 Texas San Antonio 0.1%   0 - 2 0 - 0 6 - 21 4 - 14 -6.0      -1.7 221 -4.3 313 75.0 53 -16.7 351 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 2.1 54.5 18.9 10.2 5.9 3.9 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida Atlantic 4.2 17.0 17.4 14.9 12.2 10.0 7.7 6.2 4.9 3.7 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.3
North Texas 4.3 15.8 18.9 14.4 12.1 9.9 7.7 6.1 4.8 3.9 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.5
Wichita St. 5.0 10.2 13.5 13.5 12.6 11.0 9.4 7.9 6.7 5.2 4.2 3.1 2.0 0.8
UAB 6.0 6.7 9.7 10.2 10.6 10.6 9.9 9.3 8.6 7.6 6.5 5.2 3.7 1.4
Temple 6.3 5.5 8.4 9.6 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.3 8.9 7.9 7.2 6.3 4.5 2.1
South Florida 7.1 3.5 5.8 7.4 8.2 8.9 9.5 9.7 9.5 9.6 9.3 8.5 6.8 3.4
Charlotte 7.7 2.1 4.4 6.0 7.2 8.2 8.7 9.3 10.0 10.1 10.5 10.0 9.1 4.7
East Carolina 7.6 2.4 5.0 6.4 7.2 7.9 8.6 8.9 9.4 10.2 9.8 9.7 8.7 5.6
Tulane 7.4 2.3 5.0 6.8 8.1 8.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 9.6 9.7 8.7 7.7 4.7
Tulsa 7.7 2.1 4.7 6.0 7.2 8.1 8.7 9.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.8 8.4 5.4
Rice 8.8 0.9 2.0 3.2 4.4 5.9 7.2 8.8 9.7 10.7 12.4 13.3 12.7 8.6
Texas San Antonio 11.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.8 5.5 7.8 12.1 19.8 43.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.7 4.3 6.8 9.5 12.8 15.4 16.3 14.7 10.6 4.4
Florida Atlantic 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.9 4.4 7.0 9.2 12.0 13.2 13.3 12.4 9.9 7.2 3.9 1.8 0.4
North Texas 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.7 7.0 9.2 11.7 12.9 13.4 12.5 10.2 6.9 4.0 1.7 0.4
Wichita St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.7 9.3 11.4 13.2 13.5 12.5 10.0 7.2 4.4 2.0 0.8 0.1
UAB 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.7 6.9 9.4 11.5 12.6 12.8 11.7 9.8 7.2 4.8 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.0
Temple 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.4 7.8 10.2 11.6 12.9 12.3 11.2 8.8 6.4 4.1 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1
South Florida 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.0 7.6 10.0 11.7 12.8 12.3 11.5 8.9 6.9 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Charlotte 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.8 6.4 9.1 11.0 13.1 12.6 11.8 10.1 7.8 5.3 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.0 6.3 8.6 10.8 12.5 12.4 11.4 10.0 7.9 5.8 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tulane 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.3 5.6 8.1 10.4 12.1 13.1 12.5 10.5 8.7 6.1 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.6 6.4 9.0 11.0 12.5 13.1 11.8 10.0 7.9 5.4 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rice 7 - 11 0.2 1.2 3.3 6.2 9.4 12.1 13.6 13.8 12.3 10.4 7.4 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas San Antonio 4 - 14 5.0 10.8 15.0 16.1 15.0 12.5 9.3 6.6 4.2 2.6 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 54.5% 42.1 10.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 17.0% 10.4 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Texas 15.8% 9.4 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 10.2% 5.7 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
UAB 6.7% 3.7 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Temple 5.5% 2.9 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
South Florida 3.5% 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 2.4% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulane 2.3% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 2.1% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rice 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 66.2% 38.4% 27.7% 11   1.7 2.8 3.6 5.3 5.2 5.7 5.4 5.4 7.3 9.1 12.1 2.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.8 45.0%
Florida Atlantic 20.7% 14.7% 6.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.9 7.3 4.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 79.3 7.0%
North Texas 17.4% 13.0% 4.4% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.7 6.7 5.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 82.6 5.0%
Wichita St. 12.6% 8.7% 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.6 5.0 3.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 87.4 4.3%
UAB 7.1% 6.6% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.0 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 92.9 0.6%
Temple 5.9% 5.0% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.0 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 94.1 0.9%
South Florida 4.1% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 95.9 0.3%
Charlotte 2.5% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.5 0.2%
East Carolina 2.7% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.3 0.3%
Tulane 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 97.9 0.1%
Tulsa 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.0 0.1%
Rice 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.9 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 66.2% 5.8% 63.3% 37.7% 16.2% 7.1% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Florida Atlantic 20.7% 2.5% 19.5% 7.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
North Texas 17.4% 2.5% 16.2% 6.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Wichita St. 12.6% 2.1% 11.5% 3.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 7.1% 0.3% 6.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 5.9% 0.5% 5.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 4.1% 0.2% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 2.5% 0.1% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 2.7% 0.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 2.1% 0.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 2.0% 0.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 59.6 36.6 3.7 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 0.0 65.2 32.3 2.4 0.0
2nd Round 54.4% 0.6 45.6 47.5 6.7 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 22.4% 0.2 77.6 21.6 0.8 0.0
Elite Eight 9.2% 0.1 90.8 9.1 0.1
Final Four 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
Final Game 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Champion 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5