American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
43 Memphis 76.7%   10   14 - 4 4 - 1 25 - 6 15 - 3 +11.5      +5.8 49 +5.8 45 76.8 23 +16.6 21 +10.9 3
65 North Texas 26.4%   11 - 4 4 - 1 21 - 7 14 - 4 +8.4      +2.8 105 +5.7 49 57.2 361 +9.2 62 +12.2 1
97 UAB 10.5%   10 - 7 4 - 1 18 - 12 12 - 6 +5.2      +6.4 42 -1.2 212 72.3 83 -0.4 179 +11.8 2
108 Florida Atlantic 4.3%   9 - 9 3 - 3 15 - 15 9 - 9 +3.4      +3.6 86 -0.2 184 74.2 53 +2.6 124 +2.2 7
110 Temple 5.7%   11 - 6 4 - 1 18 - 12 11 - 7 +3.2      +2.5 113 +0.7 143 72.2 87 +4.4 104 +10.0 4
138 Wichita St. 1.9%   10 - 7 1 - 4 16 - 14 7 - 11 +1.6      +1.3 142 +0.3 160 72.9 73 +2.3 127 -9.4 12
148 Tulane 2.8%   8 - 9 4 - 2 14 - 15 10 - 8 +1.1      +0.9 152 +0.3 162 68.6 181 -3.1 221 +5.2 5
154 South Florida 1.6%   9 - 8 3 - 2 14 - 16 8 - 10 +0.6      +1.0 148 -0.3 188 69.3 164 -1.1 191 +2.7 6
164 East Carolina 1.3%   8 - 9 2 - 4 14 - 15 8 - 10 +0.1      -0.4 191 +0.6 147 66.0 241 -1.4 193 +0.4 8
192 Rice 0.5%   11 - 7 2 - 4 16 - 14 7 - 11 -1.4      -0.7 196 -0.7 199 64.4 292 0.0 175 -4.7 11
224 Charlotte 0.1%   6 - 12 0 - 6 10 - 20 4 - 14 -3.7      -1.2 207 -2.5 251 62.8 330 -5.8 263 -14.4 13
229 Texas San Antonio 0.2%   6 - 9 2 - 3 10 - 18 6 - 12 -3.9      +0.5 163 -4.4 298 75.0 39 -3.0 219 -1.9 9
251 Tulsa 0.2%   6 - 10 2 - 3 10 - 19 6 - 12 -5.0      -4.0 283 -1.1 210 68.8 176 -8.3 299 -2.8 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 1.5 69.0 21.6 6.3 2.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Texas 2.1 34.0 39.0 14.7 7.1 3.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
UAB 3.4 12.0 18.9 28.9 18.1 10.3 6.2 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 5.8 0.8 3.6 9.4 14.8 18.7 18.0 14.8 8.9 6.0 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.1
Temple 4.0 6.2 13.9 23.1 22.8 15.0 9.2 5.3 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wichita St. 8.5 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.1 5.8 8.8 13.1 16.1 16.3 14.0 10.6 7.2 3.5
Tulane 5.0 2.0 6.7 15.5 19.7 20.1 14.3 9.4 5.8 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1
South Florida 7.2 0.3 1.3 4.1 8.0 10.9 14.3 16.6 14.7 12.3 9.0 5.3 2.5 0.7
East Carolina 7.1 0.1 1.0 4.3 8.6 12.4 14.3 17.4 14.8 11.1 7.5 4.7 2.7 1.1
Rice 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 5.9 10.3 13.8 16.3 17.5 15.2 10.2 5.0
Charlotte 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.7 5.0 8.2 13.4 22.8 45.8
Texas San Antonio 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 2.4 4.5 7.3 10.1 14.0 16.9 18.7 16.4 8.1
Tulsa 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.8 7.8 11.9 16.0 20.1 22.9 10.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 15 - 3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 5.2 11.5 19.7 25.1 24.3 11.5
North Texas 14 - 4 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.2 6.9 12.9 19.5 22.0 19.4 11.6 3.4
UAB 12 - 6 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.7 12.1 17.3 21.1 18.0 12.1 6.3 2.0 0.3
Florida Atlantic 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.7 8.4 15.9 20.4 20.6 16.1 8.9 3.6 0.9 0.1
Temple 11 - 7 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.8 10.5 16.4 20.3 19.7 14.1 7.6 3.1 0.7 0.1
Wichita St. 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.1 11.7 17.6 19.8 18.6 12.7 6.9 2.8 1.0 0.1
Tulane 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.8 5.7 10.6 16.7 19.4 19.5 14.3 8.2 2.7 0.7 0.1
South Florida 8 - 10 0.2 1.9 6.0 11.4 16.1 19.5 18.6 13.7 7.4 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1
East Carolina 8 - 10 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.8 10.2 15.4 20.2 18.9 15.1 7.9 3.9 1.1 0.1
Rice 7 - 11 0.6 3.3 9.1 16.8 21.0 19.9 15.1 8.3 4.3 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 4 - 14 1.4 5.8 14.9 20.5 21.8 17.4 10.9 4.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Texas San Antonio 6 - 12 1.5 6.2 13.9 19.9 21.0 16.7 11.0 6.2 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Tulsa 6 - 12 2.8 9.9 17.9 21.9 19.8 14.4 7.7 3.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 69.0% 50.5 15.9 2.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Texas 34.0% 19.0 12.7 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
UAB 12.0% 5.8 4.3 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida Atlantic 0.8% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Temple 6.2% 2.7 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulane 2.0% 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Florida 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1 0.0
Rice 0.0% 0.0
Charlotte
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 76.7% 46.0% 30.7% 10   0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.6 3.2 6.3 9.8 15.7 19.9 15.4 0.5 23.3 56.9%
North Texas 26.4% 25.0% 1.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.2 10.4 12.3 1.1 0.0 73.6 1.9%
UAB 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 89.5 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.3 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 95.7 0.0%
Temple 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 94.3 0.0%
Wichita St. 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 98.2 0.0%
Tulane 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 97.2 0.0%
South Florida 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 98.4 0.0%
East Carolina 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 98.7 0.0%
Rice 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Charlotte 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Tulsa 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 76.7% 8.5% 72.5% 34.2% 9.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
North Texas 26.4% 1.3% 25.8% 7.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 10.5% 0.0% 10.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 4.3% 0.0% 4.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 5.7% 0.0% 5.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 2.8% 0.0% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 1.6% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 68.0 31.8 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 1.3 0.0 72.8 27.1 0.1
2nd Round 42.1% 0.4 57.9 39.4 2.7
Sweet Sixteen 11.6% 0.1 88.4 11.5 0.1
Elite Eight 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
Final Four 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0