American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
47 Memphis 86.3%   10   21 - 5 11 - 2 25 - 6 15 - 3 +11.1      +4.9 69 +6.3 40 75.5 28 +16.2 22 +11.0 1
71 North Texas 24.5%   17 - 6 10 - 3 21 - 7 14 - 4 +7.9      +1.6 120 +6.3 38 55.8 362 +8.6 71 +8.6 3
104 UAB 9.3%   16 - 9 10 - 3 19 - 11 13 - 5 +4.1      +7.4 29 -3.3 271 71.7 82 +2.2 130 +9.4 2
105 Florida Atlantic 6.8%   14 - 11 8 - 5 16 - 14 10 - 8 +4.1      +4.6 74 -0.5 187 72.8 63 +3.0 124 +3.4 5
115 Wichita St. 3.5%   15 - 10 6 - 7 18 - 12 9 - 9 +2.8      +0.7 161 +2.2 105 70.2 127 +4.0 106 +0.2 7
144 Tulane 3.5%   13 - 11 9 - 4 16 - 13 12 - 6 +1.0      +0.7 158 +0.3 166 67.2 204 -0.2 170 +5.8 4
150 East Carolina 1.9%   13 - 12 7 - 7 15 - 14 9 - 9 +0.7      +1.1 142 -0.4 184 65.7 249 +0.1 165 +1.5 6
155 Temple 1.3%   13 - 13 6 - 8 15 - 15 8 - 10 +0.5      +2.6 100 -2.1 232 72.0 75 +0.2 163 -0.5 9
176 South Florida 0.7%   12 - 14 6 - 8 13 - 17 7 - 11 -0.9      -1.8 223 +0.9 149 70.4 120 -1.6 189 -0.3 8
178 Rice 0.5%   12 - 14 3 - 11 14 - 16 5 - 13 -0.9      +1.3 130 -2.2 235 65.1 263 -2.6 209 -6.4 13
208 Texas San Antonio 0.3%   8 - 16 4 - 10 9 - 19 5 - 13 -2.5      -0.2 177 -2.4 238 74.3 45 -3.9 228 -4.2 11
235 Charlotte 0.1%   9 - 17 3 - 11 10 - 20 4 - 14 -4.0      -1.2 208 -2.8 251 62.6 327 -4.8 243 -6.3 12
246 Tulsa 0.1%   9 - 16 5 - 9 10 - 19 6 - 12 -4.8      -3.6 272 -1.1 207 66.1 235 -5.6 263 -2.1 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 1.1 92.9 5.6 1.5 0.1
North Texas 2.0 19.4 62.6 15.7 2.0 0.3 0.0
UAB 2.8 9.4 27.3 43.3 15.9 3.9 0.2
Florida Atlantic 4.8 0.1 2.5 8.3 25.1 43.4 14.4 5.4 0.9 0.0
Wichita St. 6.4 0.6 4.8 16.7 32.5 29.4 12.5 2.7 0.7 0.2
Tulane 3.6 0.7 11.3 28.7 46.2 10.8 1.8 0.5 0.0
East Carolina 5.8 0.8 10.6 28.0 38.1 17.1 4.8 0.6 0.0
Temple 7.6 0.4 3.4 14.4 25.0 34.9 15.5 5.7 0.8 0.0
South Florida 8.4 0.1 1.2 5.2 12.6 26.2 41.5 11.7 1.6
Rice 11.4 0.1 0.5 5.1 17.0 24.3 39.1 14.0
Texas San Antonio 10.6 0.2 0.9 3.4 13.7 26.1 33.3 16.1 6.5
Charlotte 12.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.5 14.7 35.0 43.7
Tulsa 9.5 0.0 1.6 4.9 12.8 26.6 34.1 17.8 2.2 0.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 15 - 3 0.0 0.3 3.4 16.3 41.1 38.9
North Texas 14 - 4 0.2 2.1 11.3 29.6 37.1 19.7
UAB 13 - 5 2.3 13.8 28.9 32.6 17.8 4.6
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 4.0 19.0 34.1 28.7 12.5 1.7
Wichita St. 9 - 9 1.2 9.1 27.0 35.2 22.6 4.9
Tulane 12 - 6 2.3 13.4 31.1 32.3 17.0 3.8
East Carolina 9 - 9 2.3 14.9 36.1 36.8 10.0
Temple 8 - 10 8.0 28.3 38.6 20.9 4.2
South Florida 7 - 11 26.6 41.4 24.9 6.6 0.5
Rice 5 - 13 7.2 33.3 39.7 18.2 1.6
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 15.7 38.6 32.3 12.0 1.5
Charlotte 4 - 14 26.0 45.0 23.6 5.0 0.4
Tulsa 6 - 12 23.4 39.8 27.3 8.7 0.8




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 92.9% 74.5 15.5 2.8 0.2
North Texas 19.4% 4.2 12.3 2.7 0.2
UAB 9.4% 1.9 4.9 2.5 0.1
Florida Atlantic 0.1% 0.0 0.0
Wichita St.
Tulane 0.7% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
East Carolina
Temple
South Florida
Rice
Texas San Antonio
Charlotte
Tulsa


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 86.3% 48.0% 38.3% 10   0.0 0.7 3.0 6.4 11.8 25.0 28.0 11.3 0.1 13.7 73.6%
North Texas 24.5% 24.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.3 8.3 14.8 1.1 0.0 75.5 0.6%
UAB 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.3 3.4 4.3 1.3 0.1 90.7 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.2 3.2 2.5 0.8 0.0 93.2 0.0%
Wichita St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 96.5 0.0%
Tulane 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.0 96.5 0.0%
East Carolina 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 98.1 0.0%
Temple 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 98.7 0.0%
South Florida 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.3 0.0%
Rice 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Charlotte 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Tulsa 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 86.3% 7.1% 82.5% 32.8% 6.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
North Texas 24.5% 0.4% 24.2% 5.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 9.3% 0.0% 9.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 6.8% 0.0% 6.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 61.3 38.6 0.1
1st Round 99.9% 1.3 0.1 65.3 34.5 0.0
2nd Round 38.3% 0.4 61.7 36.2 2.1
Sweet Sixteen 8.1% 0.1 91.9 8.0 0.1
Elite Eight 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0