IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Tulsa
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.0	#252
Expected Predictive Rating	-10.4	#323

Pace	69.9	#154
Improvement	-0.5	#223

Offense
Total Offense	-2.7	#246

First Shot	-2.2	#242
After Offensive Rebound	-0.5	#214

Layup/Dunks	-3.0	#293
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.7	#208
3 Pt Jumpshots	+0.5	#166
Freethrows	+1.0	#114

Improvement	-1.3	#288

Defense
Total Defense	-2.2	#241

First Shot	+1.4	#128
After Offensive Rebounds	-3.6	#358

Layups/Dunks	+0.1	#166
2 Pt Jumpshots	-1.6	#305
3 Pt Jumpshots	+3.5	#52
Freethrows	-0.7	#235

Improvement	+0.8	#129

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	15.1	15.0

.500 or above	3.2%	3.3%	0.5%
.500 or above in Conference	11.5%	11.7%	5.6%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	34.5%	34.0%	48.3%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 5	0 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 9	3 - 15
Quad 4	7 - 6	10 - 21

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2024	362	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	103-80	92%	1 - 0			+2.7	+9.3	-8.3
Nov 13, 2024	294	Oral Roberts	W	85-76	69%	2 - 0			-1.1	+7.0	-7.9
Nov 16, 2024	194	@ Missouri St.	L	106-111 3OT	26%	2 - 1			-3.4	+0.4	-2.2
Nov 20, 2024	243	Arkansas Little Rock	L	57-71	60%	2 - 2			-21.7	-10.0	-13.2
Nov 23, 2024	106	@ Loyola Chicago	L	53-89	13%	2 - 3			-28.7	-16.2	-11.3
Nov 26, 2024	323	Detroit Mercy	W	63-44	66%	3 - 3			+9.9	-7.9	+19.6
Nov 27, 2024	263	Georgia St.	L	71-74	52%	3 - 4			-8.6	-4.1	-4.4
Dec 04, 2024	97	Oklahoma St.	L	55-76	24%	3 - 5			-18.4	-18.7	+1.3
Dec 07, 2024	232	Southern	L	66-70	57%	3 - 6			-10.7	-3.5	-7.4
Dec 14, 2024	84	Central Florida	L	75-88	14%	3 - 7			-6.3	+8.3	-14.8
Dec 21, 2024	364	Mississippi Valley	W	76-57	97%
Jan 01, 2025	196	Rice	L	69-70	49%
Jan 04, 2025	129	@ UAB	L	73-83	18%
Jan 07, 2025	230	@ Texas San Antonio	L	75-79	34%
Jan 11, 2025	193	Charlotte	L	69-70	48%
Jan 18, 2025	180	@ South Florida	L	70-77	26%
Jan 21, 2025	159	East Carolina	L	68-70	43%
Jan 26, 2025	110	Wichita St.	L	71-77	30%
Jan 29, 2025	129	UAB	L	76-80	36%
Feb 02, 2025	203	@ Tulane	L	70-76	29%
Feb 05, 2025	37	@ Memphis	L	68-88	3%
Feb 08, 2025	85	Florida Atlantic	L	76-84	22%
Feb 12, 2025	119	@ Temple	L	67-78	17%
Feb 15, 2025	230	Texas San Antonio	W	78-76	56%
Feb 19, 2025	80	@ North Texas	L	56-71	9%
Feb 22, 2025	196	@ Rice	L	67-73	28%
Mar 01, 2025	203	Tulane	L	72-73	50%
Mar 04, 2025	119	Temple	L	70-75	34%
Mar 09, 2025	110	@ Wichita St.	L	68-80	15%
Projected Record						9 - 20	5 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		0.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0						1.1	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0							2.1	4th
5th									0.1	1.2	1.3	0.3	0.0								3.0	5th
6th								0.0	1.2	2.3	0.7	0.0									4.2	6th
7th							0.0	0.9	3.1	1.6	0.1										5.7	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	3.7	2.9	0.3	0.0										7.4	8th
9th					0.0	0.3	3.1	5.0	0.8	0.0											9.2	9th
10th					0.3	2.8	6.3	2.4	0.1												11.9	10th
11th			0.0	0.3	2.7	6.7	4.0	0.4	0.0												14.1	11th
12th		0.0	0.7	3.7	7.5	5.3	0.9	0.0													18.0	12th
13th	0.6	3.0	6.1	7.6	4.5	1.0	0.0														22.8	13th

Total	0.6	3.0	6.8	11.6	15.1	16.1	14.8	12.4	8.2	5.6	3.3	1.5	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.0			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1
16-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-3	55.6%	0.0		0.0	0.0
14-4	26.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-5	7.1%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.8%	0.0				0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																							0.0
17-1
16-2	0.0%																							0.0
15-3	0.0%																							0.0
14-4	0.1%		4.0%	4.0%		12.0													0.0					0.1
13-5	0.3%		4.7%	4.7%		13.7														0.0	0.0			0.2
12-6	0.8%		1.6%	1.6%		13.3													0.0		0.0			0.8
11-7	1.5%		1.9%	1.9%		14.5															0.0	0.0		1.5
10-8	3.3%		1.0%	1.0%		14.9															0.0	0.0		3.2
9-9	5.6%		0.4%	0.4%		15.1															0.0	0.0	0.0	5.6
8-10	8.2%		0.3%	0.3%		15.9																0.0	0.0	8.2
7-11	12.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.3
6-12	14.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	14.7
5-13	16.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	16.1
4-14	15.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	15.0
3-15	11.6%																							11.6
2-16	6.8%																							6.8
1-17	3.0%																							3.0
0-18	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	15.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	99.8		0.0%