Memphis
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#47
Expected Predictive Rating+16.2#22
Pace75.5#28
Improvement-5.9#352

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#69
First Shot+3.0#94
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#80
Layup/Dunks+0.0#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#139
Freethrows+2.1#64
Improvement-4.9#353

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#40
First Shot+6.1#30
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#175
Layups/Dunks+4.3#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#249
Freethrows+0.9#118
Improvement-1.0#244
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.8% 4.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.3% 87.8% 78.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.6% 76.1% 63.2%
Average Seed 9.2 9.0 9.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 92.9% 95.6% 79.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.1% 6.1% 11.4%
First Round82.5% 84.5% 73.0%
Second Round32.8% 34.3% 25.5%
Sweet Sixteen6.7% 7.0% 5.2%
Elite Eight2.2% 2.4% 1.6%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Home) - 82.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 2
Quad 26 - 111 - 3
Quad 310 - 321 - 6
Quad 46 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 15   Missouri W 83-75 35%     1 - 0 +23.1 +10.5 +12.2
  Nov 09, 2024 98   @ UNLV W 80-74 64%     2 - 0 +13.4 +11.3 +2.1
  Nov 15, 2024 172   Ohio W 94-70 90%     3 - 0 +20.9 +11.4 +7.7
  Nov 21, 2024 69   @ San Francisco W 68-64 52%     4 - 0 +14.7 +1.3 +13.4
  Nov 25, 2024 32   Connecticut W 99-97 OT 38%     5 - 0 +16.1 +25.0 -9.0
  Nov 26, 2024 12   Michigan St. W 71-63 25%     6 - 0 +26.2 +15.4 +11.6
  Nov 27, 2024 1   Auburn L 76-90 13%     6 - 1 +9.6 +15.9 -7.0
  Dec 04, 2024 123   Louisiana Tech W 81-71 86%     7 - 1 +9.6 +9.1 +0.6
  Dec 08, 2024 97   Arkansas St. L 72-85 79%     7 - 2 -10.5 -8.6 -0.1
  Dec 14, 2024 23   @ Clemson W 87-82 OT 25%     8 - 2 +23.1 +17.4 +5.4
  Dec 18, 2024 93   @ Virginia W 64-62 63%     9 - 2 +9.7 +0.7 +9.2
  Dec 21, 2024 28   Mississippi St. L 66-79 46%     9 - 3 -0.8 -3.0 +2.6
  Dec 28, 2024 25   Mississippi W 87-70 45%     10 - 3 +29.3 +13.7 +14.2
  Jan 02, 2025 105   @ Florida Atlantic W 90-62 67%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +34.6 +14.2 +19.2
  Jan 05, 2025 71   North Texas W 68-64 71%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +9.4 +5.5 +4.2
  Jan 11, 2025 150   East Carolina W 74-70 88%     13 - 3 3 - 0 +2.1 -5.8 +7.7
  Jan 16, 2025 155   @ Temple L 81-88 78%     13 - 4 3 - 1 -4.0 +4.1 -7.8
  Jan 19, 2025 235   @ Charlotte W 77-68 88%     14 - 4 4 - 1 +7.5 +0.5 +6.8
  Jan 23, 2025 115   Wichita St. W 61-53 84%     15 - 4 5 - 1 +8.3 -9.2 +17.7
  Jan 26, 2025 104   UAB W 100-77 82%     16 - 4 6 - 1 +24.6 +10.3 +11.5
  Jan 30, 2025 144   @ Tulane W 68-56 77%     17 - 4 7 - 1 +15.6 +1.5 +14.9
  Feb 02, 2025 178   @ Rice W 86-83 81%     18 - 4 8 - 1 +4.6 +9.5 -5.0
  Feb 05, 2025 246   Tulsa W 83-71 95%     19 - 4 9 - 1 +4.7 +16.6 -10.7
  Feb 09, 2025 155   Temple W 90-82 89%     20 - 4 10 - 1 +6.0 +12.0 -6.2
  Feb 13, 2025 176   @ South Florida W 80-65 81%     21 - 4 11 - 1 +16.6 +1.5 +13.7
  Feb 16, 2025 115   @ Wichita St. L 79-84 OT 71%     21 - 5 11 - 2 +0.4 +2.1 -1.2
  Feb 23, 2025 105   Florida Atlantic W 86-76 83%    
  Feb 26, 2025 178   Rice W 83-68 92%    
  Mar 02, 2025 104   @ UAB W 85-81 64%    
  Mar 04, 2025 208   @ Texas San Antonio W 85-74 83%    
  Mar 07, 2025 176   South Florida W 83-68 92%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.8 12.1 41.1 38.9 92.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 3.8 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 3.4 16.3 41.1 38.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 38.9    38.9
15-3 100.0% 41.1    31.0 9.5 0.6
14-4 74.0% 12.1    4.5 5.7 1.8 0.1
13-5 24.1% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 92.9% 92.9 74.5 15.5 2.8 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 38.9% 94.4% 52.4% 42.0% 8.3 0.0 0.7 3.0 6.1 8.7 11.2 6.0 1.0 2.2 88.2%
15-3 41.1% 86.1% 47.7% 38.4% 9.6 0.0 0.3 2.9 12.0 15.4 4.8 0.0 5.7 73.4%
14-4 16.3% 73.4% 41.0% 32.4% 10.2 0.2 1.7 5.9 4.1 0.0 4.3 54.9%
13-5 3.4% 61.2% 36.2% 25.0% 10.5 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.0 1.3 39.2%
12-6 0.3% 51.5% 27.3% 24.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 33.3%
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 86.3% 48.0% 38.3% 9.2 0.0 0.7 3.0 6.4 11.8 25.0 28.0 11.3 0.1 13.7 73.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.4% 100.0% 7.6 0.2 3.6 14.4 27.8 29.8 20.3 3.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.4% 91.0% 9.0 0.4 4.3 18.1 39.7 25.1 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.2% 86.2% 9.3 1.6 12.5 39.7 26.8 5.5