Charlotte
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#193
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#212
Pace60.3#353
Improvement-0.5#222

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#148
First Shot+1.0#150
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#195
Layup/Dunks+2.5#99
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#304
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#320
Freethrows+5.4#2
Improvement-1.5#300

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#239
First Shot+1.2#130
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#352
Layups/Dunks-3.8#313
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#25
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#123
Freethrows+1.2#100
Improvement+1.0#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.5% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.1 13.7
.500 or above 31.9% 46.0% 23.7%
.500 or above in Conference 31.6% 38.2% 27.8%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 13.6% 10.1% 15.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Away) - 36.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 34 - 65 - 13
Quad 48 - 313 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 250   Presbyterian W 88-79 73%     1 - 0 +1.1 +23.1 -20.8
  Nov 09, 2024 54   @ Utah St. L 74-103 10%     1 - 1 -16.1 +7.7 -24.0
  Nov 13, 2024 216   Richmond W 65-48 66%     2 - 1 +11.4 -4.6 +17.6
  Nov 19, 2024 238   Gardner-Webb W 60-54 71%     3 - 1 -1.3 -11.4 +10.7
  Nov 23, 2024 340   LIU Brooklyn L 76-79 88%     3 - 2 -17.4 +0.8 -18.2
  Nov 27, 2024 132   East Tennessee St. L 55-75 49%     3 - 3 -21.3 -15.0 -7.4
  Dec 10, 2024 122   @ Davidson L 71-75 25%     3 - 4 +1.5 +17.8 -17.3
  Dec 14, 2024 263   @ Georgia St. W 77-63 54%     4 - 4 +11.4 +1.9 +9.3
  Dec 17, 2024 341   West Georgia W 75-70 88%     5 - 4 -9.4 +1.1 -10.1
  Dec 22, 2024 174   @ Hawaii L 65-69 37%    
  Dec 31, 2024 203   Tulane W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 04, 2025 196   @ Rice L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 08, 2025 85   Florida Atlantic L 73-78 33%    
  Jan 11, 2025 252   @ Tulsa W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 14, 2025 110   @ Wichita St. L 66-74 23%    
  Jan 19, 2025 37   Memphis L 68-79 16%    
  Jan 22, 2025 180   South Florida W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 29, 2025 119   @ Temple L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 01, 2025 129   @ UAB L 71-77 28%    
  Feb 04, 2025 110   Wichita St. L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 196   Rice W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 10, 2025 85   @ Florida Atlantic L 70-81 17%    
  Feb 15, 2025 159   East Carolina W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 119   Temple L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 26, 2025 203   @ Tulane L 68-70 41%    
  Mar 02, 2025 159   @ East Carolina L 64-68 36%    
  Mar 06, 2025 80   @ North Texas L 56-67 15%    
  Mar 09, 2025 230   Texas San Antonio W 76-71 68%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.7 2.0 0.2 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 1.1 5.0 3.3 0.3 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.4 4.7 0.8 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.2 3.2 5.8 1.5 0.1 10.8 9th
10th 0.2 2.4 5.8 2.7 0.2 11.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.0 3.5 0.4 0.0 11.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.6 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.7 7.9 11.5 13.6 14.5 13.3 11.4 8.7 5.6 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 61.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 29.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 28.6% 28.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 9.6% 9.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 12.2% 12.2% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.6% 4.8% 4.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
12-6 3.3% 5.4% 5.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1
11-7 5.6% 3.4% 3.4% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.4
10-8 8.7% 1.7% 1.7% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5
9-9 11.4% 1.3% 1.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.3
8-10 13.3% 0.8% 0.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.2
7-11 14.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 14.5
6-12 13.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 13.6
5-13 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
4-14 7.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.9
3-15 4.7% 4.7
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%