Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#109
Expected Predictive Rating+9.6#55
Pace62.7#337
Improvement+0.9#83

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#81
First Shot+6.6#30
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#328
Layup/Dunks+2.4#99
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#79
Freethrows+1.0#137
Improvement+0.7#78

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#148
First Shot+2.2#114
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#275
Layups/Dunks+3.9#67
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#198
Freethrows-2.2#294
Improvement+0.2#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 16.9% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.9
.500 or above 82.6% 83.3% 55.3%
.500 or above in Conference 81.4% 81.8% 65.4%
Conference Champion 20.9% 21.2% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.3% 3.9%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round16.4% 16.7% 6.5%
Second Round4.0% 4.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 97.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 38 - 510 - 10
Quad 49 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 25   @ Pittsburgh L 68-83 13%     0 - 1 +1.5 +4.0 -2.6
  Nov 16, 2024 165   @ Middle Tennessee W 88-67 56%     1 - 1 +23.6 +20.8 +3.5
  Nov 20, 2024 354   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-58 98%    
  Nov 22, 2024 137   Utah Valley W 71-65 70%    
  Nov 25, 2024 164   Texas Arlington W 78-73 66%    
  Dec 03, 2024 300   Evansville W 79-64 91%    
  Dec 08, 2024 322   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-64 92%    
  Dec 14, 2024 122   @ Western Kentucky L 74-76 44%    
  Dec 18, 2024 180   @ Indiana St. W 77-75 57%    
  Dec 22, 2024 65   Nebraska L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 02, 2025 172   Illinois St. W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 05, 2025 107   @ Drake L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 08, 2025 118   @ Northern Iowa L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 276   Valparaiso W 77-64 87%    
  Jan 15, 2025 157   @ Illinois-Chicago W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 18, 2025 93   Bradley W 70-68 55%    
  Jan 22, 2025 132   @ Southern Illinois L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 141   Belmont W 78-72 69%    
  Jan 29, 2025 300   @ Evansville W 76-67 77%    
  Feb 01, 2025 162   @ Missouri St. W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 04, 2025 107   Drake W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 276   @ Valparaiso W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 11, 2025 157   Illinois-Chicago W 78-71 72%    
  Feb 16, 2025 118   Northern Iowa W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 19, 2025 132   Southern Illinois W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 93   @ Bradley L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 25, 2025 180   Indiana St. W 80-72 75%    
  Mar 02, 2025 141   @ Belmont L 74-75 49%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.9 5.5 4.9 3.1 1.4 0.3 20.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.2 4.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.0 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.9 6.4 8.2 10.3 11.6 11.7 11.3 10.0 7.9 5.5 3.1 1.4 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
18-2 97.8% 3.1    2.8 0.2
17-3 88.9% 4.9    4.0 0.9 0.0
16-4 69.0% 5.5    3.6 1.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 39.3% 3.9    1.5 1.8 0.5 0.1
14-6 13.6% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.9% 20.9 14.1 5.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 88.4% 61.6% 26.8% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.8%
19-1 1.4% 68.9% 54.0% 14.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 32.4%
18-2 3.1% 53.6% 46.0% 7.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.5 13.9%
17-3 5.5% 40.4% 38.4% 2.0% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.1 3.3 3.3%
16-4 7.9% 32.4% 31.7% 0.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.3 1.1%
15-5 10.0% 24.9% 24.8% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 7.5 0.1%
14-6 11.3% 20.0% 20.0% 12.4 0.1 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.0
13-7 11.7% 14.7% 14.7% 12.7 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 10.0
12-8 11.6% 10.2% 10.2% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.4
11-9 10.3% 6.8% 6.8% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.6
10-10 8.2% 3.9% 3.9% 13.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.9
9-11 6.4% 2.8% 2.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.2
8-12 4.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
7-13 3.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.2
6-14 2.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-15 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 16.7% 15.9% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 3.0 7.3 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 83.3 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.9 2.6 12.8 33.3 15.4 23.1 7.7 5.1