Belmont
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#141
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#119
Pace76.1#43
Improvement-0.7#266

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#114
First Shot+2.1#111
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#164
Layup/Dunks+0.6#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#47
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#154
Freethrows-2.2#294
Improvement+0.0#173

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#197
First Shot-1.2#214
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#172
Layups/Dunks-1.2#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#242
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#313
Freethrows+4.9#10
Improvement-0.7#277
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 9.0% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 71.6% 81.2% 60.4%
.500 or above in Conference 65.2% 71.0% 58.3%
Conference Champion 8.3% 10.4% 5.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 2.0% 3.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round7.5% 8.9% 5.8%
Second Round1.2% 1.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Neutral) - 53.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 37 - 68 - 11
Quad 49 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 135   Furman L 74-76 61%     0 - 1 -3.3 -0.2 -3.1
  Nov 12, 2024 151   @ Lipscomb W 80-79 42%     1 - 1 +4.4 +8.3 -3.8
  Nov 15, 2024 292   @ Air Force W 79-71 69%     2 - 1 +4.1 +10.6 -5.7
  Nov 19, 2024 250   Oral Roberts W 90-80 80%     3 - 1 +2.6 +2.3 -0.7
  Nov 26, 2024 152   Loyola Marymount W 74-73 54%    
  Nov 29, 2024 222   Gardner-Webb W 82-75 76%    
  Dec 04, 2024 172   Illinois St. W 76-71 68%    
  Dec 07, 2024 165   Middle Tennessee W 78-73 67%    
  Dec 14, 2024 197   @ Richmond W 74-73 50%    
  Dec 19, 2024 57   UC Irvine L 73-78 34%    
  Dec 29, 2024 107   @ Drake L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 01, 2025 118   @ Northern Iowa L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 04, 2025 157   Illinois-Chicago W 84-80 65%    
  Jan 08, 2025 132   Southern Illinois W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 180   @ Indiana St. L 84-85 48%    
  Jan 14, 2025 276   Valparaiso W 83-73 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 300   @ Evansville W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 21, 2025 93   Bradley L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 109   @ Murray St. L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 29, 2025 172   @ Illinois St. L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 02, 2025 300   Evansville W 85-73 85%    
  Feb 05, 2025 93   @ Bradley L 72-79 26%    
  Feb 08, 2025 162   Missouri St. W 78-73 65%    
  Feb 12, 2025 276   @ Valparaiso W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 132   @ Southern Illinois L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 118   Northern Iowa W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 180   Indiana St. W 87-82 68%    
  Feb 26, 2025 162   @ Missouri St. L 75-76 45%    
  Mar 02, 2025 109   Murray St. W 75-74 51%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 8.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.7 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.3 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.2 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.6 3.1 0.8 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.0 2.6 0.7 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.4 6.6 8.5 10.2 11.5 12.1 11.5 9.9 8.1 5.5 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 95.5% 0.7    0.7 0.0
17-3 88.0% 1.7    1.3 0.3 0.0
16-4 64.2% 2.2    1.4 0.7 0.1
15-5 37.2% 2.1    0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0
14-6 12.7% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 4.8 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 45.4% 38.0% 7.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.9%
18-2 0.8% 38.3% 35.5% 2.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 4.5%
17-3 1.9% 31.7% 31.4% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.4%
16-4 3.5% 24.6% 24.6% 12.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.6
15-5 5.5% 18.7% 18.7% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 4.5
14-6 8.1% 15.5% 15.5% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.9
13-7 9.9% 10.9% 10.9% 13.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.8
12-8 11.5% 8.3% 8.3% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.6
11-9 12.1% 4.5% 4.5% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.5
10-10 11.5% 3.0% 3.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.2
9-11 10.2% 1.8% 1.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0
8-12 8.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.4
7-13 6.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5
6-14 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.4
5-15 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-16 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.7 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 92.5 0.1%