Belmont
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#140
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#120
Pace75.8#25
Improvement-1.6#265

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#67
First Shot+5.1#57
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#193
Layup/Dunks+0.9#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#152
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#26
Freethrows-2.7#323
Improvement+1.2#118

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#290
First Shot-3.7#297
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#204
Layups/Dunks-1.2#221
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#331
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#268
Freethrows+1.9#61
Improvement-2.8#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 7.1% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.5% 7.1% 4.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 72.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 38 - 511 - 9
Quad 49 - 320 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 159   Furman L 74-76 63%     0 - 1 -4.4 -0.8 -3.6
  Nov 12, 2024 101   @ Lipscomb W 80-79 29%     1 - 1 +8.0 +11.5 -3.6
  Nov 15, 2024 294   @ Air Force W 79-71 72%     2 - 1 +3.2 +11.9 -7.9
  Nov 19, 2024 322   Oral Roberts W 90-80 89%     3 - 1 -2.0 -0.8 -2.2
  Nov 26, 2024 169   Loyola Marymount L 63-77 56%     3 - 2 -14.4 -10.2 -3.7
  Nov 27, 2024 144   Tulane W 89-66 51%     4 - 2 +24.0 +18.2 +6.2
  Nov 29, 2024 257   Gardner-Webb W 83-74 80%     5 - 2 +1.2 -0.5 +1.1
  Dec 04, 2024 127   Illinois St. W 99-97 OT 57%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +1.2 +8.7 -7.7
  Dec 07, 2024 122   Middle Tennessee W 82-79 56%     7 - 2 +2.7 +6.0 -3.4
  Dec 14, 2024 218   @ Richmond W 93-86 57%     8 - 2 +6.4 +12.3 -6.5
  Dec 19, 2024 85   UC Irvine L 84-92 38%     8 - 3 -3.8 +9.3 -12.4
  Dec 29, 2024 74   @ Drake L 46-65 19%     8 - 4 1 - 1 -8.7 -13.0 +0.5
  Jan 01, 2025 100   @ Northern Iowa L 70-76 28%     8 - 5 1 - 2 +1.1 -2.0 +3.3
  Jan 04, 2025 147   Illinois-Chicago W 92-87 61%     9 - 5 2 - 2 +3.2 +8.9 -6.2
  Jan 08, 2025 179   Southern Illinois W 90-86 68%     10 - 5 3 - 2 +0.5 +15.7 -15.3
  Jan 11, 2025 203   @ Indiana St. W 84-79 53%     11 - 5 4 - 2 +5.3 +2.8 +2.2
  Jan 14, 2025 238   Valparaiso W 71-64 77%     12 - 5 5 - 2 +0.3 -11.4 +11.2
  Jan 18, 2025 237   @ Evansville W 85-82 60%     13 - 5 6 - 2 +1.5 +15.1 -13.6
  Jan 21, 2025 94   Bradley L 77-89 44%     13 - 6 6 - 3 -9.4 +5.0 -14.4
  Jan 25, 2025 156   @ Murray St. W 95-77 43%     14 - 6 7 - 3 +21.0 +29.6 -7.6
  Jan 29, 2025 127   @ Illinois St. L 78-81 38%     14 - 7 7 - 4 +1.3 +5.7 -4.5
  Feb 02, 2025 237   Evansville L 75-80 77%     14 - 8 7 - 5 -11.6 +6.2 -18.2
  Feb 05, 2025 94   @ Bradley W 80-77 26%     15 - 8 8 - 5 +10.7 +14.5 -3.7
  Feb 08, 2025 219   Missouri St. W 85-68 74%     16 - 8 9 - 5 +11.3 +15.1 -3.0
  Feb 12, 2025 238   @ Valparaiso L 86-101 61%     16 - 9 9 - 6 -16.6 +9.5 -25.9
  Feb 15, 2025 179   @ Southern Illinois W 73-68 48%     17 - 9 10 - 6 +6.5 +6.9 +0.0
  Feb 19, 2025 100   Northern Iowa L 75-82 46%     17 - 10 10 - 7 -4.9 +3.4 -8.4
  Feb 22, 2025 203   Indiana St. W 92-86 72%    
  Feb 26, 2025 219   @ Missouri St. W 76-74 55%    
  Mar 02, 2025 156   Murray St. W 78-75 63%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 1.4 7.2 8.6 3rd
4th 2.9 25.0 42.2 18.7 88.8 4th
5th 1.9 1.9 5th
6th 0.5 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 5.3 25.0 43.6 26.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 26.1% 9.3% 9.3% 12.6 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.2 23.7
12-8 43.6% 6.2% 6.2% 13.2 0.4 1.5 0.8 0.1 40.9
11-9 25.0% 5.1% 5.1% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 23.8
10-10 5.3% 1.5% 1.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 1.5 3.2 1.6 0.2 93.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 12.6 0.4 42.6 50.4 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.7%
Lose Out 2.0%