Gardner-Webb
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#222
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#168
Pace72.5#92
Improvement-1.6#329

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#220
First Shot+0.9#146
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#314
Layup/Dunks+4.1#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#240
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#232
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement-2.6#360

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#214
First Shot+0.6#165
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#292
Layups/Dunks-1.7#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#91
Freethrows-0.8#227
Improvement+1.0#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.7% 10.0% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 44.7% 54.4% 30.2%
.500 or above in Conference 59.3% 64.3% 52.0%
Conference Champion 9.6% 11.4% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 6.0% 9.8%
First Four1.4% 1.2% 1.8%
First Round8.1% 9.6% 5.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Neutral) - 59.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 411 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 64-80 2%     0 - 1 +4.4 +4.5 -0.6
  Nov 08, 2024 267   @ NC Central W 88-82 47%     1 - 1 +3.6 +9.3 -6.0
  Nov 11, 2024 25   @ Pittsburgh L 64-83 4%     1 - 2 -2.5 -3.5 +1.8
  Nov 15, 2024 263   Elon W 80-79 69%     2 - 2 -7.2 +5.9 -13.0
  Nov 19, 2024 142   @ Charlotte L 54-60 24%     2 - 3 -1.6 -11.7 +9.5
  Nov 26, 2024 271   SE Louisiana W 74-71 60%    
  Nov 29, 2024 141   @ Belmont L 75-82 24%    
  Dec 04, 2024 204   @ Wofford L 69-73 36%    
  Dec 07, 2024 267   NC Central W 75-70 69%    
  Dec 14, 2024 299   Queens W 81-74 75%    
  Dec 17, 2024 214   @ Georgia Southern L 81-84 38%    
  Dec 21, 2024 145   @ East Carolina L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 02, 2025 312   @ Charleston Southern W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 04, 2025 281   Presbyterian W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 08, 2025 193   Winthrop W 77-76 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 125   @ High Point L 72-81 22%    
  Jan 15, 2025 227   @ Radford L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 314   South Carolina Upstate W 82-74 77%    
  Jan 22, 2025 177   UNC Asheville W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 29, 2025 179   Longwood W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 193   @ Winthrop L 74-79 34%    
  Feb 05, 2025 177   @ UNC Asheville L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 312   Charleston Southern W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 314   @ South Carolina Upstate W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 19, 2025 179   @ Longwood L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 22, 2025 125   High Point L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 26, 2025 227   Radford W 75-72 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 281   @ Presbyterian W 74-73 50%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.9 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 9.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.8 2.5 0.6 0.1 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.6 5.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.2 6.3 2.0 0.1 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.3 6.3 1.9 0.1 14.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.7 5.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.8 4.4 1.3 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 2.6 0.8 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.1 9th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.6 7.8 10.9 13.3 13.9 13.7 11.7 8.9 5.7 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
14-2 96.5% 1.4    1.3 0.2
13-3 80.9% 2.7    1.9 0.7 0.1
12-4 50.2% 2.9    1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0
11-5 19.1% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 5.5 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 34.3% 34.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.5% 37.8% 37.8% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.5% 33.1% 33.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0
13-3 3.3% 28.7% 28.7% 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.4
12-4 5.7% 21.3% 21.3% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 4.5
11-5 8.9% 16.5% 16.5% 14.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 7.4
10-6 11.7% 11.8% 11.8% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 10.3
9-7 13.7% 8.3% 8.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 12.6
8-8 13.9% 6.0% 6.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 13.1
7-9 13.3% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 12.8
6-10 10.9% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.6
5-11 7.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 7.7
4-12 4.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.5
3-13 2.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-14 1.1% 1.1
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 2.8 2.4 91.3 0.0%