Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#280
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#220
Pace77.2#20
Improvement-3.2#318

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#291
First Shot-6.0#333
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#75
Layup/Dunks-0.7#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#127
Freethrows-3.5#353
Improvement-0.9#235

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#245
First Shot+0.2#173
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#345
Layups/Dunks+1.9#99
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#209
Freethrows-2.1#321
Improvement-2.3#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.4
.500 or above 18.1% 34.5% 13.1%
.500 or above in Conference 16.8% 33.0% 11.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 2.1% 7.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Away) - 23.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 411 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 351   Northern Illinois W 80-65 81%     1 - 0 -0.7 -3.2 +1.6
  Nov 08, 2024 141   @ UNC Wilmington L 84-92 16%     1 - 1 -3.9 +4.2 -7.3
  Nov 15, 2024 310   NC Central W 80-75 57%     2 - 1 -3.3 -4.8 +1.1
  Nov 16, 2024 205   @ Winthrop W 89-87 23%     3 - 1 +3.0 -2.3 +5.0
  Nov 17, 2024 183   William & Mary L 87-102 30%     3 - 2 -16.1 -1.7 -12.5
  Nov 23, 2024 345   West Georgia W 64-54 78%     4 - 2 -4.9 -17.0 +12.0
  Nov 30, 2024 81   @ Drake L 47-61 7%     4 - 3 -4.3 -15.9 +10.3
  Dec 04, 2024 54   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 54-89 4%     4 - 4 -22.0 -10.0 -12.9
  Dec 07, 2024 251   North Florida W 93-91 OT 56%     5 - 4 -6.0 -2.9 -3.4
  Dec 13, 2024 128   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-77 13%     5 - 5 -8.6 -2.2 -7.5
  Dec 17, 2024 237   Gardner-Webb W 86-81 53%     6 - 5 -2.4 +2.8 -5.5
  Dec 21, 2024 158   @ Texas St. L 61-83 18%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -18.8 -11.3 -7.7
  Jan 02, 2025 344   Louisiana Monroe W 90-82 78%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -6.8 +12.5 -19.2
  Jan 04, 2025 109   South Alabama L 47-76 25%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -28.4 -23.6 -5.6
  Jan 08, 2025 276   @ Georgia St. L 78-82 OT 37%     7 - 8 1 - 3 -7.3 -6.5 -0.2
  Jan 11, 2025 199   @ Marshall L 73-81 23%    
  Jan 16, 2025 287   @ Coastal Carolina L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 297   @ Old Dominion L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 22, 2025 287   Coastal Carolina W 72-69 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 199   Marshall L 76-78 43%    
  Jan 30, 2025 120   @ Troy L 67-79 13%    
  Feb 01, 2025 274   @ Southern Miss L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 05, 2025 306   Louisiana W 78-74 66%    
  Feb 13, 2025 126   James Madison L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 297   Old Dominion W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 20, 2025 159   @ Appalachian St. L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 22, 2025 126   @ James Madison L 70-82 14%    
  Feb 25, 2025 159   Appalachian St. L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 28, 2025 276   Georgia St. W 77-74 60%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 1.3 4th
5th 0.3 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.4 3.8 1.1 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 6.3 2.6 0.1 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 7.0 4.3 0.3 13.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 5.6 6.4 1.0 13.9 10th
11th 0.5 4.3 8.1 1.9 0.1 14.8 11th
12th 0.3 3.1 6.8 2.9 0.2 13.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 3.5 6.0 3.6 0.4 0.0 14.3 13th
14th 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.7 14th
Total 0.3 1.5 4.9 10.1 15.7 18.6 17.9 14.3 9.0 4.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 11.9% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 11.9% 11.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.6% 8.9% 8.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 2.1
10-8 4.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
9-9 9.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 8.9
8-10 14.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 14.2
7-11 17.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.9
6-12 18.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.6
5-13 15.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.6
4-14 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.1
3-15 4.9% 4.9
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%