Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#248
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#229
Pace73.4#55
Improvement+2.4#88

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#237
First Shot-4.6#303
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#48
Layup/Dunks-0.1#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#104
Freethrows-3.4#351
Improvement+3.9#30

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#244
First Shot+0.1#183
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#340
Layups/Dunks+2.0#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#216
Freethrows-2.2#321
Improvement-1.5#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 23.6% 56.9% 15.5%
.500 or above in Conference 5.0% 26.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 19.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 82 - 13
Quad 413 - 415 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 341   Northern Illinois W 80-65 82%     1 - 0 +0.6 -2.5 +2.2
  Nov 08, 2024 116   @ UNC Wilmington L 84-92 17%     1 - 1 -2.6 +3.7 -5.5
  Nov 15, 2024 310   NC Central W 80-75 64%     2 - 1 -3.6 -5.7 +1.7
  Nov 16, 2024 196   @ Winthrop W 89-87 30%     3 - 1 +2.5 -2.6 +4.7
  Nov 17, 2024 216   William & Mary L 87-102 43%     3 - 2 -18.0 -0.3 -15.7
  Nov 23, 2024 348   West Georgia W 64-54 84%     4 - 2 -5.3 -17.7 +12.2
  Nov 30, 2024 74   @ Drake L 47-61 9%     4 - 3 -3.7 -16.8 +11.8
  Dec 04, 2024 34   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 54-89 4%     4 - 4 -19.3 -8.9 -11.3
  Dec 07, 2024 266   North Florida W 93-91 OT 62%     5 - 4 -6.1 -3.0 -3.4
  Dec 13, 2024 123   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-77 18%     5 - 5 -9.3 -2.8 -7.7
  Dec 17, 2024 257   Gardner-Webb W 86-81 61%     6 - 5 -2.8 +1.5 -4.7
  Dec 21, 2024 202   @ Texas St. L 61-83 31%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -21.7 -13.0 -8.9
  Jan 02, 2025 336   Louisiana Monroe W 90-82 81%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -6.0 +13.6 -19.4
  Jan 04, 2025 133   South Alabama L 47-76 35%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -30.0 -22.9 -7.9
  Jan 08, 2025 252   @ Georgia St. L 78-82 OT 41%     7 - 8 1 - 3 -6.5 -9.2 +3.2
  Jan 11, 2025 190   @ Marshall L 69-81 29%     7 - 9 1 - 4 -11.1 -0.1 -11.6
  Jan 16, 2025 312   @ Coastal Carolina W 88-87 OT 56%     8 - 9 2 - 4 -5.5 +5.1 -10.6
  Jan 18, 2025 286   @ Old Dominion W 67-63 48%     9 - 9 3 - 4 -0.4 +1.0 -0.9
  Jan 23, 2025 312   Coastal Carolina W 85-58 74%     10 - 9 4 - 4 +15.4 +5.0 +10.2
  Jan 25, 2025 190   Marshall L 67-71 48%     10 - 10 4 - 5 -8.2 -6.0 -2.4
  Jan 30, 2025 118   @ Troy L 74-81 17%     10 - 11 4 - 6 -1.7 +9.4 -11.6
  Feb 01, 2025 280   @ Southern Miss L 68-72 47%     10 - 12 4 - 7 -8.1 -8.3 +0.5
  Feb 05, 2025 289   Louisiana W 83-82 68%     11 - 12 5 - 7 -8.6 +17.9 -26.4
  Feb 08, 2025 302   @ Western Michigan W 83-57 52%     12 - 12 +20.6 +6.6 +13.8
  Feb 13, 2025 138   James Madison L 72-77 37%     12 - 13 5 - 8 -6.3 +3.0 -9.7
  Feb 15, 2025 286   Old Dominion W 78-75 67%     13 - 13 6 - 8 -6.5 -3.7 -2.9
  Feb 20, 2025 141   @ Appalachian St. L 74-79 OT 21%     13 - 14 6 - 9 -1.3 +2.1 -3.2
  Feb 22, 2025 138   @ James Madison L 69-78 19%    
  Feb 25, 2025 141   Appalachian St. L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 28, 2025 252   Georgia St. W 81-78 62%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 6th
7th 5.5 4.0 9.5 7th
8th 1.1 14.0 0.9 16.0 8th
9th 9.1 9.2 0.0 18.3 9th
10th 20.6 1.5 22.2 10th
11th 12.7 13.9 0.1 26.7 11th
12th 6.9 0.3 7.2 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 19.6 45.1 30.3 5.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 5.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
8-10 30.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.1 0.2 30.0
7-11 45.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 44.9
6-12 19.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 6.0%