Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#202
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#211
Pace65.6#251
Improvement-4.6#335

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#150
First Shot+1.5#120
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#228
Layup/Dunks+4.6#34
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#350
Freethrows+2.2#60
Improvement-1.8#271

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#261
First Shot-3.4#284
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#149
Layups/Dunks-2.1#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#82
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#187
Freethrows-2.8#342
Improvement-2.8#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.8% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 20.5% 36.5% 6.1%
.500 or above in Conference 43.9% 71.4% 19.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round2.7% 3.7% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 410 - 514 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 291   Eastern Michigan W 64-44 76%     1 - 0 +10.4 -8.7 +20.9
  Nov 12, 2024 64   @ TCU L 71-76 11%     1 - 1 +5.9 +3.9 +2.3
  Nov 16, 2024 211   @ Abilene Christian L 60-72 42%     1 - 2 -12.1 -8.3 -3.9
  Nov 21, 2024 94   Bradley L 68-82 24%     1 - 3 -8.9 -0.8 -8.5
  Nov 22, 2024 162   Princeton W 83-80 42%     2 - 3 +2.9 +15.5 -12.3
  Nov 24, 2024 172   Ohio W 74-65 44%     3 - 3 +8.5 +8.5 +1.0
  Dec 01, 2024 296   @ Texas Southern W 72-59 61%     4 - 3 +8.0 +6.2 +2.8
  Dec 08, 2024 178   Rice W 75-66 55%     5 - 3 +5.5 +10.2 -3.3
  Dec 14, 2024 105   @ Florida Atlantic L 80-89 20%     5 - 4 -2.4 +8.0 -10.4
  Dec 21, 2024 248   Georgia Southern W 83-61 69%     6 - 4 1 - 0 +14.6 +7.3 +7.6
  Dec 29, 2024 205   Texas Arlington L 72-80 60%     6 - 5 -12.9 -2.4 -10.8
  Jan 02, 2025 190   @ Marshall L 71-77 38%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -5.1 +2.9 -8.4
  Jan 04, 2025 141   @ Appalachian St. L 61-72 29%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -7.3 +0.0 -8.5
  Jan 09, 2025 118   @ Troy W 74-73 24%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +6.3 +9.5 -3.2
  Jan 11, 2025 280   @ Southern Miss L 88-92 OT 57%     7 - 8 2 - 3 -8.1 +0.4 -7.8
  Jan 15, 2025 252   Georgia St. W 94-80 70%     8 - 8 3 - 3 +6.4 +14.7 -8.4
  Jan 18, 2025 280   Southern Miss W 85-82 OT 75%     9 - 8 4 - 3 -6.1 +0.5 -7.0
  Jan 23, 2025 289   @ Louisiana W 89-74 59%     10 - 8 5 - 3 +10.5 +14.8 -4.4
  Jan 25, 2025 97   @ Arkansas St. L 65-80 18%     10 - 9 5 - 4 -7.5 -2.3 -5.3
  Jan 30, 2025 289   Louisiana L 61-70 76%     10 - 10 5 - 5 -18.6 -10.4 -8.9
  Feb 01, 2025 97   Arkansas St. L 74-85 33%     10 - 11 5 - 6 -8.5 +5.4 -14.2
  Feb 05, 2025 286   @ Old Dominion L 64-75 58%     10 - 12 5 - 7 -15.4 -1.5 -15.6
  Feb 08, 2025 215   @ Central Michigan L 70-85 42%     10 - 13 -15.2 -3.7 -11.4
  Feb 13, 2025 336   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-60 74%     11 - 13 6 - 7 +3.1 -0.5 +4.1
  Feb 15, 2025 133   @ South Alabama L 65-70 OT 27%     11 - 14 6 - 8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1
  Feb 19, 2025 336   Louisiana Monroe W 80-63 86%     12 - 14 7 - 8 +3.0 +5.6 -1.8
  Feb 22, 2025 133   South Alabama L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 25, 2025 118   Troy L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 28, 2025 138   James Madison L 71-72 48%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 5th
6th 1.5 5.6 7.1 6th
7th 9.2 27.1 5.2 41.4 7th
8th 1.4 22.0 4.3 27.6 8th
9th 6.1 7.3 0.1 13.4 9th
10th 7.2 0.8 8.0 10th
11th 2.2 2.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 16.9 39.3 32.9 11.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 11.0% 5.3% 5.3% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.4
9-9 32.9% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 31.9
8-10 39.3% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.4 0.7 38.2
7-11 16.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 16.7
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.0 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 14.1 17.2 60.3 20.7 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 5.6%