Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#215
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#282
Pace67.5#196
Improvement-1.0#235

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#203
First Shot-1.8#223
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#135
Layup/Dunks+1.3#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#284
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement+2.4#68

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#222
First Shot-1.8#233
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#177
Layups/Dunks+4.6#44
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#204
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#350
Freethrows-0.6#231
Improvement-3.4#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.9% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 16.0
.500 or above 1.2% 2.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 13.9% 23.5% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four1.2% 1.5% 0.7%
First Round2.3% 3.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Away) - 59.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 22 - 6
Quad 30 - 52 - 11
Quad 48 - 611 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 133   @ South Alabama W 74-70 26%     1 - 0 +8.1 +7.8 +0.4
  Nov 07, 2024 320   Stony Brook L 72-73 81%     1 - 1 -12.9 -6.9 -6.1
  Nov 11, 2024 29   @ Marquette L 62-70 4%     1 - 2 +9.3 -5.3 +15.0
  Nov 13, 2024 75   @ George Mason W 70-69 12%     2 - 2 +11.1 +7.5 +3.6
  Nov 25, 2024 76   @ Minnesota L 65-68 12%     2 - 3 +6.9 +1.8 +5.0
  Dec 14, 2024 238   @ Valparaiso L 77-93 46%     2 - 4 -17.6 -7.0 -8.8
  Dec 17, 2024 28   Mississippi St. L 59-83 6%     2 - 5 -9.3 -1.3 -10.2
  Dec 21, 2024 8   @ Arizona L 41-94 2%     2 - 6 -31.7 -20.3 -11.6
  Jan 04, 2025 172   Ohio L 55-57 51%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -5.1 -17.6 +12.5
  Jan 07, 2025 102   @ Akron L 71-87 18%     2 - 8 0 - 2 -9.1 +4.8 -14.8
  Jan 10, 2025 221   @ Toledo L 67-69 42%     2 - 9 0 - 3 -2.7 -3.3 +0.4
  Jan 14, 2025 291   Eastern Michigan W 82-63 75%     3 - 9 1 - 3 +9.4 +5.9 +4.0
  Jan 18, 2025 341   @ Northern Illinois W 71-66 74%     4 - 9 2 - 3 -4.3 +3.5 -7.2
  Jan 21, 2025 261   Ball St. L 80-82 69%     4 - 10 2 - 4 -10.0 -1.9 -8.0
  Jan 25, 2025 302   Western Michigan W 73-52 77%     5 - 10 3 - 4 +10.6 +0.2 +11.8
  Jan 28, 2025 352   @ Buffalo L 69-75 77%     5 - 11 3 - 5 -16.6 -10.5 -5.8
  Feb 01, 2025 301   Bowling Green W 90-71 77%     6 - 11 4 - 5 +8.6 +19.3 -9.2
  Feb 04, 2025 171   Miami (OH) L 70-76 51%     6 - 12 4 - 6 -9.0 -1.4 -8.0
  Feb 08, 2025 202   Texas St. W 85-70 58%     7 - 12 +10.2 +7.3 +2.8
  Feb 11, 2025 137   @ Kent St. L 83-91 26%     7 - 13 4 - 7 -4.2 +18.0 -22.6
  Feb 15, 2025 102   Akron L 82-85 33%     7 - 14 4 - 8 -1.2 -0.4 -0.4
  Feb 18, 2025 172   @ Ohio L 82-84 32%     7 - 15 4 - 9 +0.0 +10.9 -10.9
  Feb 22, 2025 302   @ Western Michigan W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 25, 2025 352   Buffalo W 81-68 90%    
  Mar 01, 2025 291   @ Eastern Michigan W 75-73 55%    
  Mar 04, 2025 261   @ Ball St. W 74-73 50%    
  Mar 07, 2025 341   Northern Illinois W 78-66 87%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.1 9.6 10.2 19.9 6th
7th 2.1 18.8 0.5 21.4 7th
8th 0.2 12.5 6.1 18.8 8th
9th 0.3 5.4 15.6 0.5 21.7 9th
10th 0.1 2.8 9.1 2.5 14.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.3 3.4 14.8 32.7 35.0 13.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 13.9% 8.7% 8.7% 15.1 0.0 1.0 0.2 12.7
8-10 35.0% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 1.4 33.7
7-11 32.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 32.6
6-12 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.7
5-13 3.4% 3.4
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 1.0 1.7 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 99.2% 15.1 1.6 82.8 14.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0%
Lose Out 0.3%