Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#240
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#186
Pace69.9#152
Improvement-5.3#357

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#289
First Shot-4.3#302
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#175
Layup/Dunks-0.4#193
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#300
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement-2.7#340

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#169
First Shot-0.5#189
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#147
Layups/Dunks+5.1#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#225
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#346
Freethrows-0.2#200
Improvement-2.6#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 6.8% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 30.4% 44.4% 19.6%
.500 or above in Conference 64.0% 78.0% 53.0%
Conference Champion 5.5% 10.0% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.3% 4.8%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
First Round4.7% 6.5% 3.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Home) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 32 - 43 - 9
Quad 49 - 612 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 157   @ South Alabama W 74-70 24%     1 - 0 +7.0 +5.8 +1.3
  Nov 07, 2024 306   Stony Brook L 72-73 74%     1 - 1 -11.9 -5.3 -6.6
  Nov 11, 2024 17   @ Marquette L 62-70 3%     1 - 2 +10.2 -5.7 +16.3
  Nov 13, 2024 89   @ George Mason W 70-69 11%     2 - 2 +10.3 +4.8 +5.5
  Nov 25, 2024 113   @ Minnesota L 65-68 16%     2 - 3 +3.2 +1.5 +1.5
  Dec 14, 2024 226   @ Valparaiso L 77-93 36%     2 - 4 -16.5 -6.1 -8.6
  Dec 17, 2024 23   Mississippi St. L 59-83 5%     2 - 5 -9.6 -2.1 -9.8
  Dec 21, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 41-94 2%     2 - 6 -33.8 -22.0 -11.9
  Jan 04, 2025 148   Ohio L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 07, 2025 147   @ Akron L 70-78 24%    
  Jan 10, 2025 208   @ Toledo L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 14, 2025 304   Eastern Michigan W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 349   @ Northern Illinois W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 21, 2025 250   Ball St. W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 295   Western Michigan W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 28, 2025 331   @ Buffalo W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 292   Bowling Green W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 04, 2025 210   Miami (OH) W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 11, 2025 112   @ Kent St. L 59-70 17%    
  Feb 15, 2025 147   Akron L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 18, 2025 148   @ Ohio L 71-79 25%    
  Feb 22, 2025 295   @ Western Michigan L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 25, 2025 331   Buffalo W 77-68 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 304   @ Eastern Michigan W 72-71 52%    
  Mar 04, 2025 250   @ Ball St. L 69-71 42%    
  Mar 07, 2025 349   Northern Illinois W 76-65 83%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.8 2.1 0.2 12.3 4th
5th 0.3 3.3 5.9 2.5 0.2 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.1 3.3 0.4 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.2 0.7 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.0 6.5 9.8 12.2 13.8 13.8 12.7 10.1 7.0 3.9 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 92.3% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
15-3 76.6% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
14-4 47.9% 1.9    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 16.7% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 2.7 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 27.3% 27.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.8% 25.4% 25.4% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-3 1.7% 21.4% 21.4% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.4
14-4 3.9% 16.1% 16.1% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3
13-5 7.0% 12.1% 12.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 6.1
12-6 10.1% 9.1% 9.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 9.2
11-7 12.7% 6.4% 6.4% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 11.9
10-8 13.8% 4.7% 4.7% 15.6 0.2 0.4 13.2
9-9 13.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 13.4
8-10 12.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 12.0
7-11 9.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.8
6-12 6.5% 6.5
5-13 4.0% 4.0
4-14 2.3% 2.3
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.9 1.3 95.0 0.0%