Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.0 #322
Expected Predictive Rating -11.8 #335
Pace 67.2 #232
Improvement -0.4 #210

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #302 D D+ C- D- D
Defense #320 C- F C- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #177 1.11 #241 -1.0 #220
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #44 0.80 #118 +3.6 #37
Three Pointers 33% #326 0.84 #348 -6.8 #346
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #300 -4.3 #299
Freethrows 15.1 #310 70% #239 10.6 #308
Second Chance 27.2% #279 1.05 #178 0.28 #252
Turnovers 17.5% #250
Total Offense -4.9 #302

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 1.20 #243 -3.4 #294
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #270 0.69 #89 +1.6 #70
Three Pointers 39% #237 1.05 #230 +0.2 #174
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #238 -1.7 #235
Freethrows 20.2 #308 69% #55 14.0 #273
Second Chance 36.4% #346 1.28 #357 0.47 #362
Turnovers 15.4% #242
Total Defense -5.1 #320

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #305 1.3% #292
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.6% #281 2.0% #217
Possession Length 18.8 #317 17.0 #133
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #204 0.20 #283
Improvement -1.1 #242 +0.7 #140

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 1.2% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 61.0% 33.7% 69.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Away) - 23.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 72 - 14
Quad 45 - 96 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 206 Appalachian St. W 82 - 66 34% +12  1 - 0 +10 +13 A+ C F -2 A+ F D+
 Sat, Nov 8 119 @Bradley L 54 - 85 8% -14  1 - 1 -25 -15 F D- D -11 F C C+
 Thu, Nov 13 191 South Alabama L 64 - 66 22% -3  1 - 2 -4 +0 F B- C- -4 A F C
 Fri, Nov 14 364 Coppin St. W 82 - 59 82% +13  2 - 2 +3 -1 F A- C +4 A+ F F
 Thu, Nov 20 178 Northern Kentucky L 66 - 90 29% -13  2 - 3 -28 -8 D- A+ F -21 F F C-
 Sat, Nov 22 102 @Marquette L 71 - 85 6% -5  2 - 4 -6 +1 D F A+ -7 F C C
 Tue, Dec 2 268 @Loyola Chicago L 72 - 83 25% -2  2 - 5 -14 +1 B- C F -15 C+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 28 @Saint Louis L 65 - 107 1% -23  2 - 6 -24 +2 B+ C F -27 D+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 242 @Stony Brook L 55 - 78 21% -16  2 - 7 -24 -14 F D- A- -13 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 318 @Northern Illinois L 73 - 74 37% +10  2 - 8 0 - 1 -8 +3 D- A+ D- -11 C+ F B-
 Mon, Dec 22 35 @Wisconsin L 61 - 88 2% -15  2 - 9 -10 -3 D- F A+ -9 F A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 196 Ohio L 64 - 80 33% -5  2 - 10 0 - 2 -21 -18 F F F -2 A C- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 166 Toledo L 75 - 78 27% +5  2 - 11 0 - 3 -7 -3 D+ F A+ -4 A+ B- F
 Tue, Jan 6 64 @Akron L 69 - 82 3% -10  2 - 12 0 - 4 -1 -3 C- F F +2 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 148 Kent St. W 87 - 85 23% +1  3 - 12 1 - 4 -0 +7 F A+ A+ -8 A+ F B+
 Tue, Jan 13 89 @Miami (OH) L 61 - 100 5% -17  3 - 13 1 - 5 -30 -9 D- F F -20 F F D
 Tue, Jan 20 296 Ball St. L 67 - 68 53% -5  3 - 14 1 - 6 -12 +1 B- D D -13 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 260 @Western Michigan L 71 - 79 24%
 Tue, Jan 27 198 Eastern Michigan L 69 - 73 35%
 Sat, Jan 31 129 Bowling Green L 69 - 78 20%
 Tue, Feb 3 176 @Massachusetts L 70 - 82 14%
 Sat, Feb 7 312 @Louisiana L 64 - 68 36%
 Sat, Feb 14 318 Northern Illinois W 74 - 71 60%
 Tue, Feb 17 198 @Eastern Michigan L 66 - 76 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 260 Western Michigan L 74 - 76 44%
 Tue, Feb 24 148 @Kent St. L 73 - 87 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 201 @Buffalo L 70 - 80 17%
 Tue, Mar 3 64 Akron L 73 - 89 7%
 Fri, Mar 6 296 @Ball St. L 67 - 72 31%
Totals 6 - 23 4 - 14 -10 -5 D D+ C- -5 C- F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.4 2.2 8th
9th 0.5 2.8 1.2 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.3 4.5 3.5 0.4 8.6 10th
11th 0.3 6.0 8.5 1.4 0.0 16.2 11th
12th 0.7 8.1 13.2 3.4 0.1 25.4 12th
13th 4.9 15.0 16.7 4.8 0.2 41.6 13th
Total 4.9 15.7 25.0 24.3 17.1 8.3 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.3% 0.3
8-10 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1
7-11 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
6-12 8.3% 8.3
5-13 17.1% 17.1
4-14 24.3% 24.3
3-15 25.0% 25.0
2-16 15.7% 15.7
1-17 4.9% 4.9
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.4%