Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +16.6 22
Expected Predictive Rating +19.8 13
Pace 76.9 21
Improvement -0.3 204

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 32 A+ B- C+ C A
Defense B+ 20 A A- C- C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 25 B 65% 53 +7.0 11
2 Pt. Jumpers 6% 365 C 39% 148 -5.5 364
Three Pointers 48% 39 A+ 42% 2 +9.4 4
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.3 2 A +8.0 10
1st FG Attempt A+ 1.24 1
Second Chance C+ 32.9% 111 C+ 1.07 110 B- 0.35 92
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 117
Freethrows C 0.31 175 C+ 73% 154 C 0.23 160
Total Offense A- +8.5 32

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 269 A- 49% 15 +4.9 41
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 72 B- 35% 84 -0.6 240
Three Pointers 41% 191 A 28% 8 +3.8 41
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +2.3 2 A +8.0 10
1st FG Attempt 0.86 7 A +8.0 7
Second Chance B+ 25.6% 31 A- 0.86 15 A- 0.22 15
Turnovers C- 15.9% 241
Freethrows C- 0.32 228 C- 73% 243 C- 0.23 247
Total Defense B+ +8.0 20

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 14.6 7 18.0 294
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 7 0.16 123
Improvement +0.4 #155 -0.8 #244

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 1% 1% 0%
Top 4 Seed 14% 15% 0%
Top 6 Seed 40% 41% 13%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95% 96% 88%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88% 88% 75%
Average Seed 6.9 6.8 8.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 99% 99% 94%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 5%
First Round95% 95% 87%
Second Round66% 66% 50%
Sweet Sixteen25% 25% 14%
Elite Eight10% 10% 7%
Final Four4% 4% 2%
Championship Game1% 1% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 97.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 02 - 0
Quad 26 - 29 - 2
Quad 39 - 018 - 2
Quad 412 - 030 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 240 Southeast Missouri St. W 92 - 67 98% +10  75% 1 - 0 A +18 B +6 B C- D+ A- +10 A A+ F
 Thu, Nov 6 352 Chicago St. W 108 - 86 99% +13  90% 2 - 0 B- +6 B- +4 A F B- C- -3 C C+ B-
 Mon, Nov 10 244 Lindenwood W 109 - 66 98% +22  98% 3 - 0 A+ +35 A+ +17 A+ A+ F A+ +13 C B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 69 Grand Canyon W 78 - 64 86% +11  93% 4 - 0 A +19 B- +4 A+ C- F A+ +15 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 253 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91 - 60 98% +19  97% 5 - 0 A+ +23 A- +11 A+ C- D- A +12 A+ C+ C
 Thu, Nov 27 44 Santa Clara W 71 - 70 67% -3  11% 6 - 0 B+ +13 C- -1 B- D- A+ A+ +14 A+ A- B-
 Fri, Nov 28 74 Stanford L 77 - 78 80% +6  77% 6 - 1 B- +7 C+ +3 F+ A A B- +4 A- A- D+
 Tue, Dec 2 150 @Loyola Marymount W 91 - 70 89% +12  94% 7 - 1 A+ +24 A +11 A+ A+ F A +11 A- B C
 Sun, Dec 7 297 Central Michigan W 107 - 65 99% +23  96% 8 - 1 A+ +31 A+ +26 A A+ A+ B +6 C+ A- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 118 San Francisco W 85 - 75 93% +1  50% 9 - 1 B +10 B+ +8 A D+ C+ C+ +2 B A- D-
 Wed, Dec 17 229 Bethune-Cookman W 112 - 53 97% +31  94% 10 - 1 A+ +52 A+ +24 A+ A+ D+ A+ +22 A+ B+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 330 New Hampshire W 93 - 79 99% +3  65% 11 - 1 C +0 B+ +7 B C- A D- -8 F A F
 Wed, Dec 31 141 Saint Joseph's W 102 - 79 94% +12  86% 12 - 1 1 - 0 A +22 A+ +36 A+ D+ A F -13 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 51 @Virginia Commonwealth W 71 - 62 60% +6  97% 13 - 1 2 - 0 A+ +23 D -5 C- F B- A+ +28 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 226 @La Salle W 84 - 72 93% +12  99% 14 - 1 3 - 0 B+ +12 A +13 A+ D+ F+ C -1 B B F
 Wed, Jan 14 155 Fordham W 78 - 56 96% +12  89% 15 - 1 4 - 0 A +19 A+ +15 A+ B+ A+ B+ +7 A A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 127 Richmond W 88 - 63 94% +19  97% 16 - 1 5 - 0 A+ +24 A +11 A D A- A +13 A+ D+ C-
 Tue, Jan 20 107 @Duquesne W 81 - 77 82% +5  80% 17 - 1 6 - 0 B +11 C +1 B A- D- A- +9 A+ D- C
 Fri, Jan 23 136 @St. Bonaventure W 97 - 62 86% +25  98% 18 - 1 7 - 0 A+ +40 A+ +21 A+ B- A- A+ +18 A+ A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 27 82 George Washington W 79 - 76 88% -5  11% 19 - 1 8 - 0 B- +7 D+ -3 C+ C C- A- +10 A- A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 30 96 Dayton W 102 - 71 90% +18  99% 20 - 1 9 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +26 A+ A+ A B+ +6 C+ B+ B+
 Tue, Feb 3 110 @Davidson W 91 - 82 82% -1  39% 21 - 1 10 - 0 A- +16 A+ +19 A- A+ A- D+ -4 A F F
 Sat, Feb 7 226 La Salle W 82 - 58 97% +7  82% 22 - 1 11 - 0 A +18 B- +4 A+ F B- A+ +14 A A+ B-
 Fri, Feb 13 276 @Loyola Chicago W 88 - 68 97%
 Tue, Feb 17 116 @Rhode Island W 81 - 70 84%
 Fri, Feb 20 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 87 - 78 79%
 Tue, Feb 24 96 @Dayton W 81 - 73 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 107 Duquesne W 90 - 74 93%
 Wed, Mar 4 276 Loyola Chicago W 91 - 65 99%
 Sat, Mar 7 91 @George Mason W 79 - 71 77%
Totals 28 - 2 17 - 1 +17 F +9 A+ A A A +8 A+ C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B C A+ A 45% 6% 48% A A+ C+ C+ B- C+ C C+ C B+ A- B- A A 36% 24% 41% B- A B+ A- A- C- C- C- C-
1.21 65% 39% 42% +8 +2 1.24 33% 1.1 .35 16% .31 73% .23 0.97 49% 35% 28% -7 -1 0.86 26% 0.9 .22 16% .32 73% .23
Nov
3		 Southeast Missouri St. B A+ F+ D B- 49% 5% 46% A B A F C- D+ D- A- D+ A- B- B+ A B+ 25% 42% 32% A+ A A+ A+ A+ F F+ D+ F+
1.19 71% 33% 31% +4 +3 1.16 39% 0.9 .33 19% .34 81% .27 0.87 53% 32% 26% -7 -4 0.80 15% 0.7 .11 12% .38 69% .26
Nov
6		 Chicago St. B- A F A+ A 45% 4% 51% B+ A F F F B- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F C C- 32% 38% 30% B- C C+ B- C+ B- F D- F
1.26 76% 0% 43% +14 +3 1.35 25% 0.6 .14 18% .47 91% .42 1.00 37% 48% 33% -3 -3 0.90 28% 0.8 .23 18% .50 80% .40
Nov
10		 Lindenwood A+ A+ F A+ A+ 58% 2% 40% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C A+ A+ C- B- A- C 42% 27% 31% B+ C B C B- A+ F A+ D
1.35 76% 0% 50% +19 +4 1.48 48% 1.7 .83 25% .51 71% .36 0.81 60% 31% 27% -5 -1 0.92 28% 1.1 .31 30% .46 54% .25
Nov
15		 Grand Canyon B- B- F A+ A 46% 6% 48% A+ A+ B- F+ C- F C- A+ B- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% B- A+ B- A+ A+ C- D+ F F+
1.04 58% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 24% .30 82% .25 0.86 50% 9% 25% -15 0 0.73 30% 0.5 .14 16% .35 86% .30
Nov
21		 Purdue Fort Wayne A- A A+ A+ A+ 35% 6% 59% B- A+ A+ F C- D- B A+ A+ A A F+ A+ A+ 28% 17% 56% B A+ B D C+ C C F+ C-
1.29 72% 67% 43% +15 +2 1.35 48% 0.7 .35 23% .31 94% .29 0.85 47% 44% 20% -14 0 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 16% .24 79% .19
Nov
27		 Santa Clara C- C A+ D C+ 45% 6% 49% A- B- C- F D- A+ C- F D- A+ A A+ A+ A+ 53% 8% 39% F A+ A- B A- B- F F F
1.00 59% 67% 29% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 16% .32 63% .20 0.99 48% 25% 25% -12 +3 0.84 31% 1.0 .31 17% .37 82% .31
Nov
28		 Stanford C+ F F F F 53% 10% 37% A+ F+ A- B+ A A A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ F A 47% 7% 45% D+ A- B+ B+ A- D+ D- B- D+
1.06 44% 20% 26% -13 +2 0.80 34% 1.2 .42 15% .46 93% .42 1.08 31% 0% 48% -6 +2 0.95 30% 0.8 .26 14% .38 71% .27
Dec
2		 Loyola Marymount A A A+ C- A 52% 4% 45% A+ A+ A+ B A+ F D+ B+ C- A B D- A+ A 40% 20% 40% D- A- B C+ B C C D+ C-
1.18 66% 50% 32% +3 +3 1.14 49% 1.1 .54 23% .25 80% .20 0.91 55% 45% 23% -7 0 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 18% .27 71% .19
Dec
7		 Central Michigan A+ A- B+ A- 55% 0% 45% A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ C- B- C B A+ F D- C 30% 30% 40% B+ C+ B- A A- C+ F C F
1.55 69% 38% +9 +4 1.28 43% 1.5 .63 6% .34 73% .25 0.94 36% 50% 37% -1 -2 0.96 25% 0.9 .22 19% .41 70% .28
Dec
13		 San Francisco B+ A D+ D+ A- 52% 12% 37% A A A- F D+ C+ A+ C- A+ C+ C+ F A+ B- 17% 19% 64% A B A C A- D- C- C C-
1.21 70% 33% 32% +5 +2 1.15 36% 0.7 .25 13% .41 72% .29 1.06 56% 70% 26% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .27 13% .34 71% .24
Dec
17		 Bethune-Cookman A+ B+ A A+ A+ 48% 3% 48% A A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ B F C A+ A A+ A+ A+ 40% 29% 31% B A+ A- B B+ C D C- D
1.45 64% 50% 57% +20 +3 1.48 34% 1.7 .59 17% .36 65% .23 0.68 45% 19% 12% -21 -1 0.58 21% 0.9 .19 18% .36 70% .25
Dec
21		 New Hampshire B+ C- F A+ B- 40% 11% 49% B B B- D- C- A A+ C- A+ D- B F F F 31% 20% 49% A- F A+ C- A F C- A- C+
1.25 57% 17% 42% +3 +1 1.11 34% 0.9 .29 11% .47 74% .35 1.07 50% 50% 41% +6 -1 1.12 11% 1.0 .11 12% .28 61% .17
Dec
31		 Saint Joseph's A+ A+ F A+ A+ 39% 7% 54% A+ A+ D+ C- D+ A D F+ D F B A+ D C+ 37% 21% 42% B+ B- D F F F F C F
1.56 76% 25% 62% +29 +2 1.63 28% 1.0 .28 11% .19 64% .12 1.21 53% 18% 36% -5 0 0.92 36% 1.4 .49 9% .40 75% .30
Jan
7		 Virginia Commonwealth D D+ C+ F D 59% 8% 32% A+ C- F D- F B- D D+ D- A+ A+ A+ A A+ 50% 11% 39% D A+ A+ A+ A+ C C+ F D
0.92 51% 40% 26% -7 +3 0.93 15% 0.8 .13 16% .25 69% .17 0.81 39% 0% 27% -17 +2 0.71 20% 0.3 .07 16% .37 83% .31
Jan
10		 La Salle A A A A+ A+ 56% 4% 40% A+ A+ B- F D+ F+ A+ B+ A+ C F D A+ B- 36% 36% 29% A B C A B F F B+ F
1.24 68% 50% 50% +16 +3 1.40 32% 0.9 .28 21% .41 73% .30 1.07 69% 44% 8% -6 -2 0.87 33% 0.8 .26 10% .64 67% .43
Jan
14		 Fordham A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 33% 8% 59% A A+ C A+ B+ A+ C C+ C B+ A A- A- A 35% 18% 47% C- A C- A+ A+ F D+ D- D
1.28 75% 50% 38% +10 +1 1.24 28% 1.4 .38 10% .25 71% .18 0.92 47% 33% 26% -10 0 0.82 36% 0.4 .16 13% .25 77% .19
Jan
17		 Richmond A A+ A+ C- A 33% 15% 52% B+ A B F D A- A A A+ A B- A A+ A+ 17% 48% 35% A+ A+ A- F D+ C- D+ D D
1.27 78% 50% 32% +7 0 1.17 35% 0.8 .29 13% .38 78% .30 0.91 56% 27% 26% -10 -5 0.72 21% 1.4 .30 14% .35 81% .29
Jan
20		 Duquesne C F+ B A+ C+ 55% 14% 31% A B C- A+ A- D- A- F C+ A- A- A+ A+ A+ 39% 14% 46% B A+ F+ C- D- C F D+ F
1.05 48% 43% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.4 .38 21% .41 64% .26 1.00 50% 25% 23% -13 +1 0.79 37% 1.1 .39 18% .49 74% .37
Jan
23		 St. Bonaventure A+ C+ F A+ A+ 46% 2% 52% A+ A+ C A- B- A- F F F A+ B B- A+ A+ 32% 34% 34% A A+ A A+ A+ D+ F A+ F+
1.38 62% 0% 59% +20 +3 1.48 29% 1.2 .35 14% .15 44% .07 0.88 53% 39% 22% -7 -2 0.83 28% 0.5 .14 16% .40 67% .27
Jan
27		 George Washington D+ D C- B- C- 46% 6% 48% A+ C+ C+ C- C C- A- F D+ A- C F A+ A 43% 7% 50% C A- A A+ A+ C+ D+ A- C
1.04 54% 33% 36% -1 +2 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 18% .36 50% .18 1.00 61% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 29% 0.8 .22 18% .34 67% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30		 Dayton A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A A- D- B B+ A- F C C 47% 18% 35% C+ C+ A C B+ B+ A+ F A
1.40 55% 100% 59% +21 +2 1.49 26% 2.2 .57 18% .38 65% .25 0.98 50% 56% 33% -1 +1 1.02 20% 1.2 .23 21% .28 88% .24
Feb
3		 Davidson A+ C+ D- A B 44% 12% 44% A+ A- A- A+ A+ A- A+ A A+ D+ C+ A+ B A+ 34% 19% 47% C- A A- F F F D- F F
1.31 61% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.13 38% 1.5 .56 14% .44 73% .32 1.18 56% 30% 32% -4 0 0.94 26% 1.7 .44 10% .34 76% .26
Feb
7		 La Salle B- A F A+ A+ 32% 10% 58% B- A+ F B+ F B- A+ B A A+ A- B A+ A+ 51% 22% 27% D- A C A+ A+ B- C+ C C+
1.16 69% 20% 45% +11 +1 1.26 14% 1.3 .18 16% .35 71% .25 0.82 46% 33% 20% -13 +1 0.78 33% 0.3 .11 20% .32 72% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 4.1 17.7 39.3 37.3 98.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.7 4.9 17.7 39.3 37.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 37.3    37.3
17-1 100.0% 39.3    39.3
16-2 100.0% 17.7    15.5 2.1
15-3 83.8% 4.1    2.3 1.7 0.0
14-4 40.5% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 98.7% 98.7 94.6 4.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 37.3% 98.5% 65.6% 32.9% 5.2 0.3 1.0 3.9 8.2 8.2 6.9 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.6 95.7%
17-1 39.3% 95.9% 61.5% 34.4% 7.4 0.1 0.9 3.0 6.7 9.8 8.3 6.0 2.5 0.4 1.6 89.3%
16-2 17.7% 91.5% 55.8% 35.8% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.8 4.5 3.4 1.1 1.5 80.9%
15-3 4.9% 84.2% 50.4% 33.8% 9.4 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.8 68.2%
14-4 0.7% 79.7% 46.6% 33.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 62.0%
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 95.4% 61.3% 34.1% 6.9 4.6 88.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.5% 100.0% 4.5 1.1 3.9 15.8 31.2 26.9 15.9 4.5 0.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.9% 96.8% 6.5 0.1 0.7 6.5 14.9 25.3 26.3 15.8 5.4 1.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4% 94.7% 6.9 0.6 4.1 10.1 22.2 26.8 19.2 8.8 3.1