IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+7.9	#72
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.2	#180
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.7	#58

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.3	#84

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	0.9%	1.0%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	2.1%	2.3%	0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	19.7%	20.6%	8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	5.5%	6.0%	1.2%
Average Seed	9.8	9.7	10.7

.500 or above	91.9%	93.4%	75.3%
.500 or above in Conference	80.6%	82.1%	63.4%
Conference Champion	19.8%	20.8%	9.0%
Last Place in Conference	1.3%	1.1%	4.3%

First Four	2.2%	2.3%	0.8%
First Round	18.6%	19.5%	8.3%
Second Round	7.4%	7.9%	2.6%
Sweet Sixteen	2.0%	2.2%	0.6%
Elite Eight	0.6%	0.7%	0.2%
Final Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 2	4 - 4	4 - 6
Quad 3	8 - 3	12 - 9
Quad 4	9 - 1	22 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	231	Southeast Missouri St.	W	79-64	92%
Nov 06, 2025	349	Chicago St.	W	84-61	98%
Nov 10, 2025	327	Lindenwood	W	83-62	97%
Nov 15, 2025	80	Grand Canyon	W	77-73	64%
Nov 21, 2025	192	Purdue Fort Wayne	W	81-68	88%
Nov 27, 2025	105	Santa Clara	W	76-73	62%
Dec 02, 2025	136	@ Loyola Marymount	W	72-69	61%
Dec 07, 2025	299	Central Michigan	W	80-62	95%
Dec 13, 2025	75	San Francisco	W	74-70	62%
Dec 17, 2025	246	Bethune-Cookman	W	81-65	91%
Dec 21, 2025	356	New Hampshire	W	83-59	98%
Dec 31, 2025	111	Saint Joseph's	W	75-68	73%
Jan 07, 2026	58	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	66-71	35%
Jan 10, 2026	196	@ La Salle	W	76-69	72%
Jan 14, 2026	164	Fordham	W	81-69	84%
Jan 17, 2026	137	Richmond	W	72-63	78%
Jan 20, 2026	115	@ Duquesne	W	69-67	55%
Jan 23, 2026	120	@ St. Bonaventure	W	69-66	59%
Jan 27, 2026	85	George Washington	W	75-70	65%
Jan 30, 2026	65	Dayton	W	71-69	57%
Feb 03, 2026	144	@ Davidson	W	72-68	64%
Feb 07, 2026	196	La Salle	W	79-66	86%
Feb 13, 2026	103	@ Loyola Chicago	W	71-70	50%
Feb 17, 2026	146	@ Rhode Island	W	77-73	64%
Feb 20, 2026	58	Virginia Commonwealth	W	69-68	54%
Feb 24, 2026	65	@ Dayton	L	68-72	38%
Feb 28, 2026	115	Duquesne	W	72-64	73%
Mar 04, 2026	103	Loyola Chicago	W	73-67	69%
Mar 07, 2026	99	@ George Mason	L	67-68	49%
Projected Record						20 - 9	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.4	1.8	4.3	5.6	4.6	2.2	0.9		19.8	1st
2nd											0.0	0.5	3.0	5.4	4.8	1.8	0.3	0.0			15.9	2nd
3rd											0.4	3.0	5.4	3.4	1.0	0.1					13.2	3rd
4th										0.2	2.4	4.9	2.9	0.5	0.0						10.9	4th
5th									0.1	1.5	4.3	2.9	0.5	0.0							9.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.7	3.2	2.8	0.5	0.0								7.3	6th
7th								0.2	2.0	3.0	0.7	0.0									6.1	7th
8th							0.1	1.1	2.5	1.0	0.0										4.8	8th
9th						0.0	0.6	1.9	1.2	0.1											3.7	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	1.3	1.4	0.2												3.2	10th
11th				0.0	0.2	0.7	1.2	0.3	0.0												2.4	11th
12th				0.1	0.4	0.7	0.3	0.0													1.6	12th
13th		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1														1.2	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0															0.5	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	2.1	3.5	5.0	6.7	9.0	10.7	11.8	12.2	11.1	10.2	7.5	5.0	2.2	0.9			Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.9		0.9
17-1	99.6%	2.2		2.1	0.1
16-2	93.3%	4.6		4.0	0.6	0.0
15-3	74.6%	5.6		3.8	1.6	0.1	0.0
14-4	42.7%	4.3		1.9	1.9	0.5	0.1
13-5	16.1%	1.8		0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-6	3.4%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	19.8%	19.8		13.2	5.1	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.9%		95.3%	60.2%	35.1%	4.6		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		88.1%
17-1	2.2%		84.9%	48.7%	36.1%	6.8		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.3		70.5%
16-2	5.0%		69.1%	41.4%	27.8%	8.7			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.9	0.6	0.0					1.5		47.4%
15-3	7.5%		49.0%	32.3%	16.7%	10.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.2	1.4	0.1					3.8		24.7%
14-4	10.2%		33.0%	26.5%	6.6%	10.6						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	2.1	0.2	0.0				6.8		8.9%
13-5	11.1%		22.6%	20.4%	2.2%	11.0								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.8	0.4	0.0				8.6		2.7%
12-6	12.2%		14.2%	13.7%	0.5%	11.2										0.0	0.1	1.1	0.5	0.0	0.0			10.5		0.6%
11-7	11.8%		9.1%	9.1%		11.5											0.0	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0			10.7
10-8	10.7%		6.2%	6.2%		11.8											0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0			10.1
9-9	9.0%		3.4%	3.4%		11.9												0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0			8.7
8-10	6.7%		1.5%	1.5%		12.6												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		6.6
7-11	5.0%		1.6%	1.6%		13.1												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		4.9
6-12	3.5%		0.6%	0.6%		13.6													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		3.5
5-13	2.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	2.1
4-14	1.2%																							1.2
3-15	0.6%																							0.6
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		19.7%	14.9%	4.7%	9.8		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.9	1.0	1.6	3.6	8.1	2.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	80.3		5.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	3.3	11.1	19.5	22.2	23.6	18.0	5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	4.5	5.2	10.6	10.6	36.9	10.5	5.3	10.5	5.3	5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	91.9%	4.0		8.4	24.8	25.3	25.1	8.4