Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.0 107
Expected Predictive Rating +2.3 125
Pace 74.0 53
Improvement +3.6 53

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 105 B- C C- B B+
Defense C+ 127 C+ B- C+ D+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 80 B- 61% 104 +3.5 70
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% 347 D+ 35% 258 -4.2 351
Three Pointers 47% 51 C+ 35% 138 +3.9 60
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.5 19 C+ +1.6 118
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 86
Second Chance C 30.5% 181 C 1.03 165 C 0.31 167
Turnovers C- 17.8% 244
Freethrows B 0.35 42 C 72% 193 B 0.26 56
Total Offense C+ +2.5 105

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 200 C 58% 180 +0.2 169
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 67 C+ 36% 120 -0.9 262
Three Pointers 38% 266 C 34% 184 +1.5 119
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +1.5 19 C +1.6 118
1st FG Attempt 1.00 143 C+ +0.9 143
Second Chance B- 27.9% 80 C+ 0.99 120 B- 0.28 81
Turnovers C+ 17.6% 135
Freethrows D+ 0.34 296 C 73% 208 D+ 0.25 296
Total Defense C+ +1.5 127

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 50 17.4 193
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 51 0.22 324
Improvement +2.2 #70 +1.4 #110

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 78% 92% 66%
.500 or above in Conference 77% 92% 64%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 47.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 23 - 33 - 8
Quad 35 - 58 - 13
Quad 48 - 116 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 336 Niagara W 83 - 63 95% +17  100% 1 - 0 B- +6 C +1 A C F B +5 B B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 286 Sacred Heart W 92 - 80 90% +7  91% 2 - 0 C+ +2 B- +4 F B+ A C- -3 B C+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 216 Queens W 87 - 81 OT 83% +9  93% 3 - 0 C +0 F -13 D F F+ A +12 B+ A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 32 @Villanova L 77 - 87 11% -6  28% 3 - 1 B- +7 A- +10 A+ D+ F+ C- -3 A+ F A-
 Wed, Nov 19 313 Loyola Maryland W 92 - 78 92% +12  99% 4 - 1 C+ +2 B- +5 B A+ F D+ -4 D- C+ D
 Sat, Nov 22 281 Northeastern L 86 - 93 85% -3  2% 4 - 2 D- -14 F -10 C+ F F C- -3 F A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 130 William & Mary L 79 - 83 69% -8  8% 4 - 3 D+ -5 D -5 D- A+ F C+ +0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 222 Stony Brook W 84 - 75 83% +8  94% 5 - 3 C+ +3 B+ +8 A+ F+ C- D+ -5 B- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 58 @Boise St. L 64 - 86 21% -12  0% 5 - 4 D -10 D- -7 F+ C+ C+ C- -3 C C- F+
 Sat, Dec 13 66 @Nevada L 75 - 78 24% -5  21% 5 - 5 B +8 B +7 C- A- D C+ +1 A D- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 345 Canisius W 103 - 59 95% +22  97% 6 - 5 A+ +29 A+ +18 A+ C+ B A- +9 D+ C+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 110 @Davidson W 89 - 83 2OT 40% -3  12% 7 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +13 B+ +8 C B B+ B +4 A+ A F
 Sat, Jan 3 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 80 - 93 35% -7  7% 7 - 6 1 - 1 D+ -5 B +6 A+ F+ C- F+ -10 C- F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 141 @Saint Joseph's L 90 - 97 OT 48% +0  38% 7 - 7 1 - 2 C- -2 B+ +8 A- B- D F+ -10 F C+ F+
 Tue, Jan 13 96 Dayton L 65 - 71 57% -5  8% 7 - 8 1 - 3 C- -4 C- -1 C- F A- C- -3 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 155 @Fordham W 74 - 63 55% +6  97% 8 - 8 2 - 3 B+ +14 C +1 B D D A +12 A B- C+
 Tue, Jan 20 22 Saint Louis L 77 - 81 18% -5  11% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B +10 C +1 D+ A+ D A- +9 A D+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 276 @Loyola Chicago W 71 - 59 77% +4  79% 9 - 9 3 - 4 B +8 D -5 C F+ D A+ +13 A B+ D
 Wed, Jan 28 136 St. Bonaventure L 79 - 87 70% +2  64% 9 - 10 3 - 5 D -9 C +1 B+ F A- F+ -10 F A F
 Sun, Feb 1 116 Rhode Island W 76 - 61 65% +8  93% 10 - 10 4 - 5 A- +15 B+ +8 A- B- C A- +8 B- B+ C+
 Wed, Feb 4 91 @George Mason W 71 - 65 33% +0  49% 11 - 10 5 - 5 A- +15 B +6 C- A+ B A- +9 D+ A A+
 Sat, Feb 7 82 George Washington W 88 - 86 51% -0  46% 12 - 10 6 - 5 B- +6 A +14 B+ C- A+ D- -8 D C- A
 Sat, Feb 14 136 @St. Bonaventure L 78 - 79 48%
 Wed, Feb 18 226 La Salle W 78 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 21 96 @Dayton L 74 - 78 34%
 Wed, Feb 25 110 Davidson W 75 - 72 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 22 @Saint Louis L 74 - 90 7%
 Wed, Mar 4 116 @Rhode Island L 73 - 75 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 127 Richmond W 81 - 76 68%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 +4 F +3 A+ C+ B+ C+ +1 C+ C B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- D+ C+ C+ 42% 11% 47% B+ B- C C C C- B C B C+ C C+ C C 38% 24% 38% B- C+ B- C+ B- C+ D+ C D+
1.12 61% 35% 35% +2 +2 1.08 30% 1.0 .31 18% .35 72% .26 1.07 58% 36% 34% 0 0 1.00 28% 1.0 .28 18% .34 73% .26
Nov
3		 Niagara C A+ F A A+ 39% 12% 49% B A D- A+ C F F+ C- F+ B D D+ A+ B 47% 23% 30% B- B B A B+ B+ F F F
1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19 0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38
Nov
7		 Sacred Heart B- B+ A+ F F 42% 5% 53% B+ F B B- B+ A A+ F+ A+ C- F A+ A B+ 28% 14% 58% C- B F A+ C+ F+ F A+ F
1.24 70% 67% 17% -7 +2 0.93 38% 1.2 .44 9% .58 67% .39 1.08 75% 0% 28% -6 0 0.91 35% 0.7 .26 15% .73 67% .49
Nov
11		 Queens F A B F D- 52% 12% 37% A- D F C- F F+ A- F D+ A A- D+ C B 32% 21% 47% B+ B+ C+ A+ A+ B+ F C+ F+
1.01 71% 43% 18% -1 +2 1.03 22% 1.0 .22 19% .43 57% .24 0.94 50% 42% 33% -2 -1 0.96 30% 0.4 .13 19% .39 74% .29
Nov
15		 Villanova A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% A A+ A- F D+ F+ A+ D A+ C- C A+ C+ A+ 45% 17% 38% D+ A+ F C F A- F D F
1.11 47% 67% 52% +12 +1 1.28 38% 0.6 .22 24% .38 65% .25 1.25 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 55% 1.0 .55 19% .58 76% .44
Nov
19		 Loyola Maryland B- A+ F C+ B- 41% 12% 47% B B B+ A A+ F A+ B A+ D+ D- A B- D 49% 8% 43% F D- A+ F C+ D F+ A D+
1.23 80% 17% 35% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.4 .55 23% .45 77% .35 1.04 65% 25% 30% 0 +2 1.08 18% 1.3 .24 16% .34 62% .21
Nov
22		 Northeastern F C- A- A C- 71% 7% 22% A+ C+ F C F F B D- C+ C- F F A+ F 53% 16% 31% D F C- A+ A- A+ F F F
1.02 59% 50% 42% +4 +4 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 22% .38 68% .26 1.10 81% 50% 25% +10 +2 1.25 29% 0.7 .19 25% .47 80% .38
Dec
2		 William & Mary D C A+ F F+ 40% 4% 56% B+ D- A- A+ A+ F A+ C A+ C+ D+ A F F 37% 8% 55% C F A+ A+ A+ A+ A F B
1.03 60% 50% 25% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.5 .61 27% .43 71% .30 1.08 63% 25% 50% +14 +2 1.33 15% 0.8 .11 23% .24 86% .20
Dec
6		 Stony Brook B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 11% 51% B+ A+ B+ F F+ C- A+ C A+ D+ A+ F B B 36% 13% 52% D+ B- D C D+ F B- F C
1.22 56% 60% 46% +11 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33 1.09 35% 86% 31% -4 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18
Dec
10		 Boise St. D- A- F F F 38% 16% 45% B+ F+ D A+ C+ C+ C+ F C- C- A+ A+ F D+ 35% 31% 35% A+ C A F C- F+ B+ F C
0.91 67% 22% 20% -9 +1 0.85 17% 1.5 .25 16% .30 61% .18 1.22 44% 25% 61% +5 -2 1.10 26% 1.5 .39 11% .32 90% .29
Dec
13		 Nevada B D- A+ D D+ 42% 4% 54% A C- A C- A- D B A+ A+ C+ A+ D C- A- 43% 40% 17% A- A C+ F D- C- F C+ F
1.11 48% 50% 30% -7 +2 0.92 38% 1.1 .43 19% .37 90% .33 1.16 40% 42% 38% -5 -2 0.87 33% 1.3 .44 12% .54 75% .40
Dec
22		 Canisius A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% A- A+ D- A+ C+ B D B C- A- C C- D+ F+ 22% 47% 31% A+ D+ A F C+ A+ F+ A+ C
1.41 76% 100% 47% +21 +2 1.47 25% 1.4 .36 14% .27 76% .21 0.81 50% 38% 36% -1 -5 0.91 18% 1.3 .24 29% .35 56% .19
Dec
30		 Davidson B+ F F A+ C- 31% 17% 52% B- C B- B- B B+ C+ A+ A- B C+ A+ A A+ 41% 15% 44% D- A+ A+ D+ A F A- F B-
1.14 44% 10% 43% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.1 .35 15% .32 81% .26 1.06 56% 30% 28% -6 +1 0.91 20% 1.1 .22 8% .21 80% .17
Jan
3		 Virginia Commonwealth B A+ A+ D+ A+ 50% 4% 46% A+ A+ F+ D- F+ C- A+ F A- F+ F+ B+ C C- 42% 13% 44% C C- C F F B- F D F
1.12 79% 50% 32% +10 +3 1.27 21% 0.8 .17 18% .43 64% .27 1.30 68% 33% 35% +4 +1 1.13 34% 1.8 .62 17% .52 77% .40
Jan
7		 Saint Joseph's B+ B A+ C- A- 35% 18% 47% B A- B+ C- B- D C A+ B F+ C- F D F 41% 14% 45% C- F D A- C+ F+ F C- F
1.12 62% 64% 32% +5 0 1.12 37% 1.0 .37 17% .23 87% .20 1.21 61% 75% 36% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.8 .31 14% .42 76% .32
Jan
13		 Dayton C- C C+ D- D+ 39% 11% 50% A- C- D F F A- A+ B- A+ C- B A+ F D+ 45% 15% 40% C C- A A+ A+ D+ F F+ F
1.01 56% 40% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 0.5 .12 19% .42 73% .31 1.10 56% 17% 44% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.8 .17 16% .51 82% .42
Jan
17		 Fordham C C F A+ B 33% 18% 49% B B F+ B D D A+ D A+ A B+ F A+ A+ 33% 20% 46% C A D A B- C+ D A+ C
1.04 56% 22% 42% +2 0 1.06 19% 1.2 .23 18% .47 67% .31 0.89 50% 55% 16% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.7 .29 18% .26 60% .16
Jan
20		 Saint Louis C D+ F F D- 39% 14% 46% B+ D+ A A A+ D A+ C+ A+ A- A D F A 55% 14% 31% C+ A A- F D+ A F A+ D
1.00 50% 25% 23% -13 +1 0.79 37% 1.1 .39 18% .49 74% .37 1.05 48% 43% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.4 .38 21% .41 64% .26
Jan
24		 Loyola Chicago D C F B+ C- 43% 15% 43% B+ C F B+ F+ D A F B A+ D A+ A+ A+ 33% 17% 50% B+ A A+ F B+ D D+ D- D
1.05 55% 29% 40% +1 +1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 15% .38 68% .26 0.87 63% 25% 21% -10 0 0.81 18% 1.3 .24 16% .33 74% .25
Jan
28		 St. Bonaventure C F A+ A+ B+ 40% 12% 48% B B+ C F F A- A- F D+ F+ B F F F 43% 29% 29% C+ F A+ F A F F D- F
1.13 45% 67% 46% +7 +1 1.18 30% 0.5 .14 14% .37 55% .20 1.24 52% 64% 50% +12 -1 1.24 16% 1.5 .24 11% .42 81% .34
Feb
1		 Rhode Island B+ D+ F A+ B+ 41% 2% 56% A A- B C B- C A A+ A+ A- C- A+ D C+ 29% 22% 49% A B- A C+ B+ C+ C A+ A
1.17 53% 0% 43% +5 +3 1.17 36% 1.0 .36 22% .43 91% .39 0.94 62% 20% 36% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 20% .35 50% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 George Mason B D- F B D+ 39% 20% 41% B C- B A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ A- F A+ F+ D 30% 30% 39% A D+ C+ A+ A A+ A- A+ A+
1.10 50% 22% 37% -4 0 0.93 32% 1.4 .45 14% .38 76% .29 1.01 86% 21% 39% +6 -2 1.11 30% 0.7 .20 26% .32 53% .17
Feb
7		 George Washington A B C- B+ B 51% 18% 31% B+ B+ B F C- A+ A+ A- A+ D- D A+ F D- 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ C- A D- F F
1.29 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 6% .47 77% .36 1.26 67% 25% 41% +8 +1 1.20 54% 0.8 .43 23% .36 89% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.9 5.2 2.9 0.2 9.1 3rd
4th 0.5 9.2 9.2 1.1 0.0 20.1 4th
5th 0.0 4.5 12.9 1.6 0.0 19.0 5th
6th 0.6 10.9 4.5 0.1 16.1 6th
7th 0.0 3.6 9.4 0.5 13.4 7th
8th 0.4 7.2 2.9 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.0 2.0 5.0 0.3 7.4 9th
10th 0.1 2.2 0.5 2.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.5 5.2 17.0 28.6 28.0 16.1 4.3 0.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.3% 6.0% 6.0% 11.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 4.3% 4.8% 4.8% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.0
11-7 16.1% 4.0% 4.0% 11.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 15.4
10-8 28.0% 2.4% 2.4% 12.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 27.4
9-9 28.6% 1.0% 1.0% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 28.3
8-10 17.0% 0.6% 0.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.9
7-11 5.2% 0.5% 0.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 5.2
6-12 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 12.1 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.2%