Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +2.5 127
Results Rating +1.8 130
Consistency 0.13 75
Pace 72.3 78
Improvement -0.5 209

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 144 C+ C C- B B+
Defense C+ 123 C+ C+ C+ D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 61 C+ 60% 112 +3.5 60
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 332 D+ 36% 258 -4.0 348
Three Pointers 46% 76 C 34% 200 +2.4 96
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.6 19 C +0.3 154
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 114
Second Chance C 30.4% 182 C 1.03 172 C 0.31 164
Opponents' Steals C- 9.9% 232
Other Turnovers C- 7.8% 258
Turnovers C- 17.7% 247
Freethrows B 0.35 47 C 72% 201 B 0.25 65
Total Offense C +0.6 144

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 50% 144 C- 12.2% 250
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 121 F 9.8% 356
Three Pointers C+ 86% 134 D- 1.6% 328
Total B- 61% 72 D 7.0% 322


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 180 C+ 56% 130 -0.6 159
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 77 C 38% 178 +1.2 288
Three Pointers 38% 275 C 34% 162 -1.8 103
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.4 105 C+ -0.8 147
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 136
Second Chance C+ 28.7% 110 C+ 1.00 134 C+ 0.29 107
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.2% 124
Other Turnovers C+ 7.5% 136
Turnovers C+ 17.7% 119
Freethrows D+ 0.34 290 C 73% 205 D+ 0.25 286
Total Defense C+ +1.8 123

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 168 C 10.9% 177
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 253 D+ 3.4% 260
Three Pointers C- 85% 224 C- 0.7% 216
Total C 55% 165 C- 5.3% 196

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 66 17.5 223
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 59 0.20 283
Consistency 0.13 221 0.10 49
Improvement -2.2 293 +1.6 94

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 139 126 110
Results Rating Rank 158 134 117
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 9 - 9
Conference Finish 8 7 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.6 13.6
.500 or above 67% 100% 5%
.500 or above in Conference 65% 100% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Richmond (Home) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 22 - 42 - 9
Quad 35 - 57 - 14
Quad 49 - 115 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 334 Niagara W 83 - 63 94% +17  100% 1 - 0 B- +5 C- -1 A+ C- F B+ +6 A- B B+
 Fri, Nov 7 289 Sacred Heart W 92 - 80 88% +7  91% 2 - 0 C+ +2 B- +4 F A- A C- -3 B+ C+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 204 Queens W 87 - 81 OT 77% +9  93% 3 - 0 C +1 F -13 D+ F F+ A+ +12 B+ A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 35 @Villanova L 77 - 87 9% -6  28% 3 - 1 B- +7 A- +10 A+ D+ F+ D+ -3 A+ F A
 Wed, Nov 19 318 Loyola Maryland W 92 - 78 91% +12  99% 4 - 1 C +1 B- +4 B A+ F D+ -3 D- C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 22 296 Northeastern L 86 - 93 84% -3  2% 4 - 2 F+ -15 F -11 C+ F F C- -3 F A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 139 William & Mary L 79 - 83 66% -8  8% 4 - 3 D+ -6 D -6 D- A+ F C+ +0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 227 Stony Brook W 84 - 75 81% +8  94% 5 - 3 C+ +2 B+ +7 A F+ C D -5 B- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 59 @Boise St. L 64 - 86 18% -12  0% 5 - 4 D -10 D- -7 F+ C+ C C- -3 C C- F+
 Sat, Dec 13 81 @Nevada L 75 - 78 23% -5  21% 5 - 5 B- +7 B +7 C- A D+ C +0 A- F+ D+
 Mon, Dec 22 338 Canisius W 103 - 59 94% +22  97% 6 - 5 A+ +29 A+ +19 A+ B- B- A- +8 C- C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 113 @Davidson W 89 - 83 2OT 35% -3  12% 7 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +12 B+ +9 C B- B B- +3 A A- F
 Sat, Jan 3 50 Virginia Commonwealth L 80 - 93 29% -7  7% 7 - 6 1 - 1 C- -5 B +6 A+ F+ D+ F -10 C- F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 112 @Saint Joseph's L 90 - 97 OT 35% +0  38% 7 - 7 1 - 2 C -1 A- +10 A B+ D F+ -10 F C+ F+
 Tue, Jan 13 76 Dayton L 65 - 71 41% -5  8% 7 - 8 1 - 3 C -1 C -0 C F B+ C- -2 C A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 161 @Fordham W 74 - 63 49% +6  97% 8 - 8 2 - 3 B+ +14 C +2 B D D A+ +12 A B C+
 Tue, Jan 20 25 Saint Louis L 77 - 81 17% -5  11% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B +9 C +1 D A+ D A- +8 A D A
 Sat, Jan 24 279 @Loyola Chicago W 71 - 59 72% +4  79% 9 - 9 3 - 4 B +9 D+ -3 C+ F+ D A+ +12 A+ B- D-
 Wed, Jan 28 138 St. Bonaventure L 79 - 87 66% +2  64% 9 - 10 3 - 5 D -10 C +0 B+ F B+ F -10 F A F
 Sun, Feb 1 130 Rhode Island W 76 - 61 63% +8  93% 10 - 10 4 - 5 B+ +14 B+ +9 A B- C B+ +6 B- B C+
 Wed, Feb 4 105 @George Mason W 71 - 65 32% +0  49% 11 - 10 5 - 5 B+ +13 B- +5 D+ A+ B- A +9 D+ A A+
 Sat, Feb 7 78 George Washington W 88 - 86 42% -0  46% 12 - 10 6 - 5 B- +7 A+ +15 B+ C- A+ D- -8 D C- A+
 Sat, Feb 14 138 @St. Bonaventure W 78 - 73 43% +7  89% 13 - 10 7 - 5 B +9 C+ +3 C F+ A+ B+ +6 B+ C B+
 Wed, Feb 18 209 La Salle W 62 - 61 78% +5  73% 14 - 10 8 - 5 C- -5 F -14 C F F A +9 B- B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 76 @Dayton L 66 - 78 22% -6  5% 14 - 11 8 - 6 C -1 B- +4 D A B- D -6 B F F
 Wed, Feb 25 113 Davidson L 56 - 67 58% -8  13% 14 - 12 8 - 7 D -11 F -14 F D- A B- +3 A- B C
 Sat, Feb 28 25 @Saint Louis L 76 - 91 7% -1  46% 14 - 13 8 - 8 C+ +4 A +14 A- A C+ F -12 F C- D+
 Wed, Mar 4 130 @Rhode Island L 52 - 64 40% -1  36% 14 - 14 8 - 9 D+ -7 F -14 F B- F B+ +6 B- C- A-
 Sat, Mar 7 135 Richmond W 79 - 75 65%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 +2 C +1 C C B+ C+ +2 C C B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D+ C C 43% 23% 46% B+ C+ C C C C- B C B C+ C+ C C C+ 39% 24% 38% C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ D+ C D+
1.10 60% 36% 34% 0 +2 1.06 30% 1.0 .31 18% .35 72% .25 1.06 56% 38% 34% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 18% .34 73% .25
Nov
3		 Niagara C- A+ F A A+ 39% 12% 49% B A+ D- A C- F D- C D- B+ D+ C- A+ A- 47% 23% 30% B A- B- A B B+ F D- F
1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19 0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38
Nov
7		 Sacred Heart B- B+ A+ F F 42% 5% 53% B+ F B B A- A A+ D- A+ C- F A+ A B+ 28% 14% 58% C- B+ F A+ C+ F+ F A+ F
1.24 70% 67% 17% -7 +2 0.93 38% 1.2 .44 9% .58 67% .39 1.08 75% 0% 28% -6 0 0.91 35% 0.7 .26 15% .73 67% .49
Nov
11		 Queens F A B F D- 52% 12% 37% A- D+ F D+ F F+ A F C- A+ A D+ C+ B+ 32% 21% 47% B+ B+ C- A+ A+ B+ F+ C+ D-
1.01 71% 43% 18% -1 +2 1.03 22% 1.0 .22 19% .43 57% .24 0.94 50% 42% 33% -2 -1 0.96 30% 0.4 .13 19% .39 74% .29
Nov
15		 Villanova A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% A A+ A- F D+ F+ A+ D- A+ D+ C A+ C+ A+ 45% 17% 38% D+ A+ F B- F A F D F
1.11 47% 67% 52% +12 +1 1.28 38% 0.6 .22 24% .38 65% .25 1.25 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 55% 1.0 .55 19% .58 76% .44
Nov
19		 Loyola Maryland B- A+ F C+ B 41% 12% 47% B+ B B+ A A+ F A+ B- A+ D+ D- A B- D 49% 8% 43% F D- A F C+ C- F A+ D+
1.23 80% 17% 35% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.4 .55 23% .45 77% .35 1.04 65% 25% 30% 0 +2 1.08 18% 1.3 .24 16% .34 62% .21
Nov
22		 Northeastern F C- B+ A C- 71% 7% 22% A+ C+ F C- F F B D- C+ C- F F A+ F 53% 16% 31% D- F D+ A+ A- A+ F F F
1.02 59% 50% 42% +4 +4 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 22% .38 68% .26 1.10 81% 50% 25% +10 +2 1.25 29% 0.7 .19 25% .47 80% .38
Dec
2		 William & Mary D C A F F 40% 4% 56% A- D- A A+ A+ F A+ C A+ C+ C- A+ F F 37% 8% 55% C F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A-
1.03 60% 50% 25% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.5 .61 27% .43 71% .30 1.08 63% 25% 50% +14 +2 1.33 15% 0.8 .11 23% .24 86% .20
Dec
6		 Stony Brook B+ D+ A+ A+ A 38% 11% 51% B+ A B+ F F+ C A+ C A+ D A+ F B B 36% 13% 52% D+ B- D C- D+ F B- F+ C
1.22 56% 60% 46% +10 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33 1.09 35% 86% 31% -5 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18
Dec
10		 Boise St. D- A- F F F 38% 16% 45% A- F+ D A+ C+ C B F C C- A+ A+ F D+ 35% 31% 35% A+ C A+ F C- F+ B- F C-
0.91 67% 22% 20% -9 +1 0.85 17% 1.5 .25 16% .30 61% .18 1.22 44% 25% 61% +5 -2 1.10 26% 1.5 .39 11% .32 90% .29
Dec
13		 Nevada B D- A D- D 42% 4% 54% A C- A C- A D+ B A+ A+ C A+ D D+ A- 43% 40% 17% A A- C+ F F+ D+ F C+ F
1.11 48% 50% 30% -7 +2 0.92 38% 1.1 .43 19% .37 90% .33 1.16 40% 42% 38% -5 -2 0.87 33% 1.3 .44 12% .54 75% .40
Dec
22		 Canisius A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% A- A+ D- A+ B- B- D B+ D+ A- C+ C- D+ D- 22% 47% 31% A+ C- A F C A+ F+ A+ C
1.41 76% 100% 47% +20 +2 1.47 25% 1.4 .36 14% .27 76% .21 0.81 50% 38% 36% -1 -5 0.91 18% 1.3 .24 29% .35 56% .19
Dec
30		 Davidson B+ F F A+ C 31% 17% 52% B- C B- B- B- B C+ A+ A- B- C+ A+ A A+ 41% 15% 44% D- A A+ C- A- F A F B-
1.14 44% 10% 43% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.1 .35 15% .32 81% .26 1.06 56% 30% 28% -6 +1 0.91 20% 1.1 .22 8% .21 80% .17
Jan
3		 Virginia Commonwealth B A+ A+ D+ A+ 50% 4% 46% A+ A+ F+ D- F+ D+ A+ F A F F+ A- C C- 42% 13% 44% C C- C F F B- F D F
1.12 79% 50% 32% +10 +3 1.27 21% 0.8 .17 18% .43 64% .27 1.30 68% 33% 35% +4 +1 1.13 34% 1.8 .62 17% .52 77% .40
Jan
7		 Saint Joseph's A- B A+ C- A 35% 18% 47% B A B+ C+ B+ D C A+ B+ F+ C- F D F 41% 14% 45% C F D- A- C+ F+ F C F
1.12 62% 64% 32% +5 0 1.12 37% 1.0 .37 17% .23 87% .20 1.21 61% 75% 36% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.8 .31 14% .42 76% .32
Jan
13		 Dayton C C B- D- C- 39% 11% 50% A C D F F B+ A+ B- A+ C- B A+ F C- 45% 15% 40% C C A A+ A+ D+ F F+ F
1.01 56% 40% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 0.5 .12 19% .42 73% .31 1.10 56% 17% 44% +1 +1 1.08 21% 0.8 .17 16% .51 82% .42
Jan
17		 Fordham C C F A+ B 33% 18% 49% B- B F+ B D D A+ C- A+ A+ B+ F A+ A+ 33% 20% 46% C+ A D A+ B C+ C- A+ B-
1.04 56% 22% 42% +2 0 1.06 19% 1.2 .23 18% .47 67% .31 0.89 50% 55% 16% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.7 .29 18% .26 60% .16
Jan
20		 Saint Louis C D+ F F F+ 39% 14% 46% B+ D A+ A A+ D A+ C+ A+ A- A D+ F A 55% 14% 31% C+ A A- F D A F A+ D-
1.00 50% 25% 23% -13 +1 0.79 37% 1.1 .39 18% .49 74% .37 1.05 48% 43% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.4 .38 21% .41 64% .26
Jan
24		 Loyola Chicago D+ C F A- C 43% 15% 43% B C+ F B+ F+ D A F B A+ D A+ A+ A+ 33% 17% 50% B+ A+ A+ F B- D- D+ D- D
1.05 55% 29% 40% +1 +1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 15% .38 68% .26 0.87 63% 25% 21% -11 0 0.81 18% 1.3 .24 16% .33 74% .25
Jan
28		 St. Bonaventure C F A+ A+ B 40% 12% 48% B B+ C+ F F B+ A F C- F B F F F 43% 29% 29% C F A+ F A F F D- F
1.13 45% 67% 46% +7 +1 1.18 30% 0.5 .14 14% .37 55% .20 1.24 52% 64% 50% +12 -1 1.24 16% 1.5 .24 11% .42 81% .34
Feb
1		 Rhode Island B+ C- F A+ A- 41% 2% 56% A A B C B- C A A+ A+ B+ D+ A+ D C 29% 22% 49% A B- A- C+ B C+ C A+ A+
1.17 53% 0% 43% +5 +3 1.17 36% 1.0 .36 22% .43 91% .39 0.94 62% 20% 36% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 20% .35 50% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 George Mason B- D- F B D 39% 20% 41% B- D+ B A+ A+ B- A+ B+ A+ A F A+ F+ D 30% 30% 39% A D+ C+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ A+
1.10 50% 22% 37% -5 0 0.93 32% 1.4 .45 14% .38 76% .29 1.01 86% 21% 39% +6 -2 1.11 30% 0.7 .20 26% .32 53% .17
Feb
7		 George Washington A+ B C- B B+ 51% 18% 31% B+ B+ B+ F C- A+ A+ B+ A+ D- D A+ F D- 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ C- A+ D F F
1.29 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 6% .47 77% .36 1.26 67% 25% 41% +8 +1 1.20 54% 0.8 .43 23% .36 89% .33
Feb
14		 St. Bonaventure C+ C F C+ C- 39% 12% 49% B C F+ D+ F+ A+ D+ F D B+ C- C- A+ B- 41% 43% 16% A+ B+ B+ D C B+ F B F
1.13 59% 29% 36% 0 +1 1.05 21% 1.0 .21 9% .25 69% .17 1.06 60% 43% 25% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 20% .40 73% .29
Feb
18		 La Salle F A A+ F D+ 48% 10% 43% A- C F F F F A+ C A+ A A+ C- C B- 38% 22% 40% C B- C+ A B+ A+ D+ A+ B
0.90 70% 75% 17% -2 +2 1.02 19% 0.8 .15 26% .43 68% .29 0.88 41% 40% 33% -6 0 0.89 33% 0.8 .26 26% .37 58% .21
Feb
21		 Dayton B- C- F A D 34% 27% 39% C- D B+ A+ A B- A+ B+ A+ D A+ F B+ B+ 45% 16% 39% C B F F F F F C+ F
1.03 53% 8% 41% -6 -1 0.89 36% 1.2 .44 20% .47 75% .35 1.21 45% 71% 29% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.5 .52 12% .57 75% .43
Feb
25		 Davidson F F+ D- F F 55% 6% 40% A+ F D- D- D- A D- D+ D- B- C A+ A- A+ 49% 13% 38% F A- D+ A+ B C F D+ F
0.85 48% 33% 19% -15 +3 0.79 23% 0.9 .21 14% .25 64% .16 1.02 59% 17% 29% -5 +2 0.96 33% 0.8 .28 17% .40 68% .27
Feb
28		 Saint Louis A C- A+ C- B+ 50% 12% 38% A A- A- A A C+ A+ D A- F A F F F 36% 7% 58% B F A- F C- D+ F F F
1.16 52% 67% 32% -1 +2 1.04 33% 1.1 .36 15% .41 70% .29 1.39 50% 67% 58% +20 +2 1.44 26% 1.3 .35 15% .43 88% .38
Mar
4		 Rhode Island F F F F F 49% 10% 41% A- F C+ B- B- F A+ D+ A B+ C- F A+ B- 47% 21% 33% C+ B- C+ D+ C- A- C+ F D+
0.80 37% 25% 25% -17 +2 0.72 33% 1.1 .36 29% .48 68% .32 0.98 60% 67% 14% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.0 .31 23% .34 82% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 34.5 34.5 6th
7th 5.1 30.6 35.7 7th
8th 29.8 29.8 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 34.9 65.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 65.1% 1.1% 1.1% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 64.3
8-10 34.9% 0.4% 0.4% 13.6 0.1 0.1 34.8
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 12.8 99.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.6 1.4 41.1 53.4 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.5%
Lose Out 17.3%