Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#163
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#262
Pace63.5#314
Improvement+4.8#9

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#234
First Shot-3.9#291
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#89
Layup/Dunks-3.0#292
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#43
Freethrows-3.3#347
Improvement+2.9#25

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#113
First Shot+1.9#116
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#172
Layups/Dunks+1.4#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#164
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#81
Freethrows-2.3#329
Improvement+1.9#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 6.0% 10.5% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 22.9% 35.4% 14.8%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 15.4% 8.2% 20.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 1.3% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Home) - 39.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 62 - 8
Quad 35 - 97 - 17
Quad 44 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 108   Lipscomb L 72-77 45%     0 - 1 -4.1 -4.7 +1.0
  Nov 08, 2024 111   Princeton L 68-75 36%     0 - 2 -3.7 -6.8 +3.3
  Nov 15, 2024 99   @ DePaul L 58-84 22%     0 - 3 -18.2 -3.8 -17.8
  Nov 19, 2024 141   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-80 57%     0 - 4 -8.1 -1.4 -6.8
  Nov 24, 2024 122   South Dakota St. L 60-71 40%     0 - 5 -8.6 -8.5 -0.8
  Nov 25, 2024 233   Hampton L 59-64 64%     0 - 6 -8.9 -11.6 +2.4
  Nov 26, 2024 312   Old Dominion W 67-54 78%     1 - 6 +4.7 -10.8 +15.4
  Dec 03, 2024 204   St. Peter's L 59-62 68%     1 - 7 -8.1 -3.9 -4.8
  Dec 06, 2024 214   Delaware W 80-66 70%     2 - 7 +8.4 +7.8 +1.5
  Dec 11, 2024 224   Maine L 56-61 73%     2 - 8 -11.5 -9.8 -2.4
  Dec 14, 2024 209   Towson W 65-47 58%     3 - 8 +15.6 +11.9 +8.9
  Dec 21, 2024 78   UC Irvine W 70-54 33%     4 - 8 +20.4 +14.3 +8.8
  Dec 31, 2024 94   Rhode Island L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 04, 2025 115   @ Davidson L 64-70 28%    
  Jan 08, 2025 85   Saint Joseph's L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 15, 2025 135   @ George Washington L 67-72 34%    
  Jan 18, 2025 87   St. Bonaventure L 62-66 37%    
  Jan 21, 2025 47   Dayton L 62-70 23%    
  Jan 26, 2025 180   @ Fordham L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 85   @ Saint Joseph's L 63-73 19%    
  Feb 01, 2025 201   Massachusetts W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 05, 2025 242   @ Richmond W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 121   Loyola Chicago W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 47   @ Dayton L 59-73 10%    
  Feb 19, 2025 180   Fordham W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 87   @ St. Bonaventure L 59-69 19%    
  Feb 26, 2025 168   @ La Salle L 68-71 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 86   George Mason L 61-65 37%    
  Mar 04, 2025 57   Virginia Commonwealth L 61-68 28%    
  Mar 08, 2025 136   @ Saint Louis L 69-74 34%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.3 1.5 1.4 0.3 3.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.7 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.7 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.2 2.9 4.6 1.1 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 5.3 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.4 5.0 4.4 0.6 11.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 4.2 5.5 1.4 0.1 12.1 12th
13th 0.5 3.6 5.2 2.1 0.1 11.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 2.9 4.5 2.2 0.2 10.6 14th
15th 0.2 1.1 2.6 2.9 1.6 0.2 8.5 15th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.3 6.3 10.5 13.4 15.2 14.7 12.4 9.3 6.3 4.1 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 92.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 60.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 7.1% 7.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 17.4% 17.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.0% 5.6% 5.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
12-6 1.7% 4.4% 4.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 1.7
11-7 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.9
10-8 6.3% 2.3% 2.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.2
9-9 9.3% 0.7% 0.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 9.3
8-10 12.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.1 0.0 12.3
7-11 14.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.6
6-12 15.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.2
5-13 13.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.4
4-14 10.5% 10.5
3-15 6.3% 6.3
2-16 3.3% 3.3
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%