Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.0 108
Expected Predictive Rating +2.3 126
Pace 73.9 54
Improvement +3.6 50

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #104 B- C C- B B+
Defense C+ #127 C+ B- C+ D+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 82 61% 102 +3.5 71
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% 345 35% 264 -4.1 352
Three Pointers 47% 52 35% 137 +3.9 58
1st FG Attempt 1.08 89 +3.2 89
Second Chance 30.5% 180 1.03 165 0.32 164
Turnovers 17.8% 241
Freethrows 0.35 42 72% 189 0.25 59
Total Offense +2.6 104

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 199 58% 183 +0.2 170
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 71 36% 120 -0.9 258
Three Pointers 38% 265 34% 182 +1.6 119
1st FG Attempt 1.00 145 +0.9 145
Second Chance 28.0% 80 0.99 123 0.28 81
Turnovers 17.6% 133
Freethrows 0.34 297 73% 209 0.25 295
Total Defense +1.5 127

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.5 19 -0.5 94
Shot Type Accuracy +1.6 117 -0.4 162
Possession Length 15.9 51 17.4 198
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 50 0.22 324
Improvement +2.3 #71 +1.4 #110

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 79% 92% 66%
.500 or above in Conference 78% 92% 64%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 47.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 23 - 33 - 8
Quad 35 - 58 - 13
Quad 48 - 116 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 335 Niagara W 83 - 63 95% +17  100% 1 - 0 B- +6 C +1 A C F B +5 B B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 287 Sacred Heart W 92 - 80 90% +7  91% 2 - 0 C+ +2 B- +4 F B+ A C- -3 B C+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 218 Queens W 87 - 81 OT 83% +9  93% 3 - 0 C +0 F -13 D F F+ A +12 B+ A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 32 @Villanova L 77 - 87 11% -6  28% 3 - 1 B- +7 A- +10 A+ D+ F+ C- -3 A+ F A-
 Wed, Nov 19 312 Loyola Maryland W 92 - 78 92% +12  99% 4 - 1 C+ +2 B- +5 B A+ F C- -3 D- C+ D
 Sat, Nov 22 269 Northeastern L 86 - 93 83% -3  2% 4 - 2 D- -13 F+ -10 B- F F C- -2 F A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 145 William & Mary L 79 - 83 72% -8  8% 4 - 3 D+ -6 D -5 D- A+ F C -0 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 213 Stony Brook W 84 - 75 82% +8  94% 5 - 3 C+ +3 B+ +8 A+ F+ C- D+ -4 B D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 58 @Boise St. L 64 - 86 21% -12  0% 5 - 4 D -10 D- -7 F+ C+ C+ C- -3 C C- F+
 Sat, Dec 13 66 @Nevada L 75 - 78 24% -5  21% 5 - 5 B +8 B +7 C- A- D C+ +1 A D- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 346 Canisius W 103 - 59 95% +22  97% 6 - 5 A+ +29 A+ +18 A+ C+ B A- +9 D+ C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 111 @Davidson W 89 - 83 2OT 40% -3  12% 7 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +13 B+ +8 C B B+ B +4 A+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 3 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 80 - 93 35% -7  7% 7 - 6 1 - 1 D+ -5 B +6 A+ F+ C- F+ -10 C- F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 136 @Saint Joseph's L 90 - 97 OT 48% +0  38% 7 - 7 1 - 2 C- -2 B+ +8 A- B- D F+ -10 F C+ F+
 Tue, Jan 13 97 Dayton L 65 - 71 57% -5  8% 7 - 8 1 - 3 C- -4 C- -1 C- F A- C- -3 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 157 @Fordham W 74 - 63 55% +6  97% 8 - 8 2 - 3 B+ +14 C +1 B D D A +12 A B- C+
 Tue, Jan 20 22 Saint Louis L 77 - 81 18% -5  11% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B +10 C +1 D+ A+ D A- +9 A D+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 277 @Loyola Chicago W 71 - 59 77% +4  79% 9 - 9 3 - 4 B +8 D -5 C F+ D A+ +13 A B+ D
 Wed, Jan 28 134 St. Bonaventure L 79 - 87 70% +2  64% 9 - 10 3 - 5 D -9 C +1 B+ F A- F+ -10 F A F
 Sun, Feb 1 116 Rhode Island W 76 - 61 65% +8  93% 10 - 10 4 - 5 A- +15 B+ +8 A- B- C A- +8 B- B+ C+
 Wed, Feb 4 89 @George Mason W 71 - 65 33% +0  49% 11 - 10 5 - 5 A- +15 B +6 C- A+ B A- +9 D+ A A+
 Sat, Feb 7 84 George Washington W 88 - 86 52% -0  46% 12 - 10 6 - 5 B- +6 A +14 B+ C- A+ D- -8 D C- A
 Sat, Feb 14 134 @St. Bonaventure L 78 - 79 48%
 Wed, Feb 18 226 La Salle W 78 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 21 97 @Dayton L 74 - 78 34%
 Wed, Feb 25 111 Davidson W 75 - 72 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 22 @Saint Louis L 74 - 90 7%
 Wed, Mar 4 116 @Rhode Island L 73 - 75 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 128 Richmond W 81 - 76 68%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 +4 C+ +3 B- C C- C+ +1 C+ B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- D+ C+ C+ 42% 11% 47% B+ B- C C C C- B C B C+ C C+ C C 38% 24% 38% B- C+ B- C+ B- C+ D+ C D+
1.12 61% 35% 35% +2 +2 1.08 31% 1.0 .32 18% .35 72% .25 1.07 58% 36% 34% 0 0 1.00 28% 1.0 .28 18% .34 73% .26
Nov
3		 Niagara C A+ F A A+ 39% 12% 49% B A D- A+ C F F+ C- D- B D D+ A+ B 47% 23% 30% B- B B A B+ B+ F F F
1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19 0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38
Nov
7		 Sacred Heart B- B+ A+ F F 42% 5% 53% B+ F B B- B+ A A+ F+ A+ C- F A+ A- B+ 28% 14% 58% C- B F A+ C+ F+ F A+ F
1.24 70% 67% 17% -7 +2 0.93 38% 1.2 .44 9% .58 67% .39 1.08 75% 0% 28% -6 0 0.91 35% 0.7 .26 15% .73 67% .49
Nov
11		 Queens F A B F D- 52% 12% 37% A- D F C- F F+ A- F D+ A A- D+ C B 32% 21% 47% B+ B+ C+ A+ A+ B+ F C+ F+
1.01 71% 43% 18% -1 +2 1.03 22% 1.0 .22 19% .43 57% .24 0.94 50% 42% 33% -2 -1 0.96 30% 0.4 .13 19% .39 74% .29
Nov
15		 Villanova A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% A A+ A- F D+ F+ A+ D A+ C- C A+ C+ A+ 45% 17% 38% D+ A+ F C F A- F D F
1.11 47% 67% 52% +12 +1 1.28 38% 0.6 .22 24% .38 65% .25 1.25 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 55% 1.0 .55 19% .58 76% .44
Nov
19		 Loyola Maryland B- A+ F C+ B- 41% 12% 47% B B B+ A A+ F A+ B A+ C- D- A B- D 49% 8% 43% F D- A+ F C+ D F+ A D+
1.23 80% 17% 35% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.4 .55 23% .45 77% .35 1.04 65% 25% 30% 0 +2 1.08 18% 1.3 .24 16% .34 62% .21
Nov
22		 Northeastern F+ C- B+ A C- 71% 7% 22% A+ B- F C F F B F+ C+ C- F F A+ F 53% 16% 31% D F C- A+ A- A+ F F F
1.02 59% 50% 42% +4 +4 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 22% .38 68% .26 1.10 81% 50% 25% +10 +2 1.25 29% 0.7 .19 25% .47 80% .38
Dec
2		 William & Mary D C A+ F F+ 40% 4% 56% B+ D- A- A+ A+ F A+ C+ A+ C D+ A+ F F 37% 8% 55% C F A+ A+ A+ A A F B+
1.03 60% 50% 25% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.5 .61 27% .43 71% .30 1.08 63% 25% 50% +14 +2 1.33 15% 0.8 .11 23% .24 86% .20
Dec
6		 Stony Brook B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 11% 51% B+ A+ B+ F F+ C- A+ C A+ D+ A+ F B B 36% 13% 52% D+ B D C D+ F B- F C
1.22 56% 60% 46% +11 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33 1.09 35% 86% 31% -4 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18
Dec
10		 Boise St. D- A- F F F 38% 16% 45% B+ F+ D A+ C+ C+ C+ F C- C- A+ A+ F D+ 35% 31% 35% A+ C A F C- F+ B+ F C
0.91 67% 22% 20% -9 +1 0.85 17% 1.5 .25 16% .30 61% .18 1.22 44% 25% 61% +5 -2 1.10 26% 1.5 .39 11% .32 90% .29
Dec
13		 Nevada B D- A+ D D+ 42% 4% 54% A C- A C- A- D B A+ A+ C+ A+ D C- A- 43% 40% 17% A- A C+ F D- C- F C+ F
1.11 48% 50% 30% -7 +2 0.92 38% 1.1 .43 19% .37 90% .33 1.16 40% 42% 38% -5 -2 0.87 33% 1.3 .44 12% .54 75% .40
Dec
22		 Canisius A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% A- A+ D- A+ C+ B D B C- A- C C- D+ F+ 22% 47% 31% A+ D+ A F C A+ F+ A+ C
1.41 76% 100% 47% +21 +2 1.47 25% 1.4 .36 14% .27 76% .21 0.81 50% 38% 36% -1 -5 0.91 18% 1.3 .24 29% .35 56% .19
Dec
30		 Davidson B+ F F A+ C- 31% 17% 52% B- C B- B- B B+ C+ A+ A- B C+ A+ A A+ 41% 15% 44% D- A+ A+ D+ A- F A- F B-
1.14 44% 10% 43% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.1 .35 15% .32 81% .26 1.06 56% 30% 28% -6 +1 0.91 20% 1.1 .22 8% .21 80% .17
Jan
3		 Virginia Commonwealth B A+ A+ D+ A+ 50% 4% 46% A+ A+ F+ D- F+ C- A+ F A- F+ F+ B+ C C- 42% 13% 44% C C- C F F B- F D F
1.12 79% 50% 32% +10 +3 1.27 21% 0.8 .17 18% .43 64% .27 1.30 68% 33% 35% +5 +1 1.13 34% 1.8 .62 17% .52 77% .40
Jan
7		 Saint Joseph's B+ B A+ C- A- 35% 18% 47% B A- B+ C- B- D C A+ B F+ C- F D F 41% 14% 45% C- F D A- C+ F+ F C- F
1.12 62% 64% 32% +5 0 1.12 37% 1.0 .37 17% .23 87% .20 1.21 61% 75% 36% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.8 .31 14% .42 76% .32
Jan
13		 Dayton C- C C+ D- D+ 39% 11% 50% A- C- D F F A- A+ B- A+ C- B A+ F D+ 45% 15% 40% C C- A- A+ A+ D+ F F+ F
1.01 56% 40% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 0.5 .12 19% .42 73% .31 1.10 56% 17% 44% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.8 .17 16% .51 82% .42
Jan
17		 Fordham C C F A+ B 33% 18% 49% B B F+ B D D A+ D A+ A B+ F A+ A+ 33% 20% 46% C A D A B- C+ D A+ C
1.04 56% 22% 42% +2 0 1.06 19% 1.2 .23 18% .47 67% .31 0.89 50% 55% 16% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.7 .29 18% .26 60% .16
Jan
20		 Saint Louis C D+ F F D- 39% 14% 46% B+ D+ A A A+ D A+ C+ A+ A- A D F A 55% 14% 31% C+ A A- F D+ A F A+ D
1.00 50% 25% 23% -13 +1 0.79 37% 1.1 .39 18% .49 74% .37 1.05 48% 43% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.4 .38 21% .41 64% .26
Jan
24		 Loyola Chicago D C F B+ C- 43% 15% 43% B+ C F B+ F+ D A F B A+ D A+ A+ A+ 33% 17% 50% B+ A A+ F B+ D D+ D- D
1.05 55% 29% 40% +1 +1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 15% .38 68% .26 0.87 63% 25% 21% -10 0 0.81 18% 1.3 .24 16% .33 74% .25
Jan
28		 St. Bonaventure C F A+ A+ B+ 40% 12% 48% B B+ C F F A- A- F D+ F+ B F F F 43% 29% 29% C+ F A+ F A F F D- F
1.13 45% 67% 46% +7 +1 1.18 30% 0.5 .14 14% .37 55% .20 1.24 52% 64% 50% +12 -1 1.24 16% 1.5 .24 11% .42 81% .34
Feb
1		 Rhode Island B+ D+ F A+ B+ 41% 2% 56% A A- B C B- C A A+ A+ A- C- A+ D C+ 29% 22% 49% A B- A C+ B+ C+ C A+ A
1.17 53% 0% 43% +5 +3 1.17 36% 1.0 .36 22% .43 91% .39 0.94 62% 20% 36% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 20% .35 50% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 George Mason B D- F B D+ 39% 20% 41% B C- B A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ A- F A+ F+ D 30% 30% 39% A D+ C+ A+ A A+ A- A+ A+
1.10 50% 22% 37% -4 0 0.93 32% 1.4 .45 14% .38 76% .29 1.01 86% 21% 39% +6 -2 1.11 30% 0.7 .20 26% .32 53% .17
Feb
7		 George Washington A B C- B+ B 51% 18% 31% B+ B+ B F C- A+ A+ A- A+ D- D A+ F D- 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ C- A D- F F
1.29 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 6% .47 77% .36 1.26 67% 25% 41% +8 +1 1.20 54% 0.8 .43 23% .36 89% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.7 5.0 3.2 0.2 9.2 3rd
4th 0.5 9.6 9.5 1.0 0.0 20.6 4th
5th 0.0 4.5 12.4 1.8 0.0 18.7 5th
6th 0.7 11.1 4.7 0.1 16.6 6th
7th 0.0 3.5 9.3 0.4 13.2 7th
8th 0.4 7.0 3.0 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 2.1 4.8 0.2 7.1 9th
10th 0.2 2.1 0.6 2.9 10th
11th 0.3 0.5 0.8 11th
12th 0.2 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.7 5.2 16.6 28.5 27.9 16.4 4.5 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 11.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 11.5 0.1 0.1 4.3
11-7 16.4% 3.9% 3.9% 11.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 15.7
10-8 27.9% 2.1% 2.1% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 27.3
9-9 28.5% 0.9% 0.9% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 28.3
8-10 16.6% 0.6% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 16.5
7-11 5.2% 0.6% 0.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 5.2
6-12 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 12.1 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%