Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#91
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#115
Pace67.9#203
Improvement+3.1#49

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#93
First Shot+2.7#103
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#142
Layup/Dunks+1.9#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#133
Freethrows-1.5#277
Improvement+3.5#26

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#94
First Shot+1.9#116
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#106
Layups/Dunks+1.9#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#120
Freethrows+3.5#9
Improvement-0.3#203
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.5% 55.1% 48.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.3 12.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 75.6% 85.4% 60.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round52.5% 55.1% 48.5%
Second Round8.9% 10.0% 7.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.1% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Away) - 61.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 37 - 38 - 7
Quad 415 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 116   @ Duquesne W 77-72 52%     1 - 0 +10.6 +2.9 +7.4
  Nov 06, 2024 46   @ Arkansas L 60-76 23%     1 - 1 -2.2 -8.3 +7.1
  Nov 09, 2024 130   Wofford W 78-69 75%     2 - 1 +8.2 +12.7 -3.3
  Nov 12, 2024 139   Belmont L 79-80 76%     2 - 2 -2.2 +3.8 -6.0
  Nov 17, 2024 135   @ Western Kentucky L 61-66 56%     2 - 3 -0.5 -10.4 +10.2
  Nov 19, 2024 15   @ Kentucky L 68-97 11%     2 - 4 -9.7 -1.1 -8.0
  Nov 24, 2024 278   Jackson St. W 77-53 92%     3 - 4 +14.7 +3.6 +11.3
  Nov 30, 2024 358   @ Alabama A&M W 82-44 94%     4 - 4 +26.2 +2.2 +22.3
  Dec 03, 2024 156   @ Chattanooga W 80-62 61%     5 - 4 +21.2 +8.4 +13.6
  Dec 05, 2024 269   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-60 91%     6 - 4 +9.1 +3.4 +6.0
  Dec 19, 2024 111   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-67 51%     6 - 5 +3.9 +0.7 +3.0
  Jan 02, 2025 185   @ Jacksonville W 70-65 67%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +6.7 +10.4 -3.0
  Jan 04, 2025 245   @ North Florida W 96-64 78%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +30.1 +9.6 +18.1
  Jan 09, 2025 210   Queens L 73-75 85%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -7.2 +4.2 -11.6
  Jan 11, 2025 349   West Georgia W 86-67 97%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +3.7 +9.4 -4.9
  Jan 16, 2025 353   @ Bellarmine W 87-53 93%     10 - 6 4 - 1 +23.3 +10.9 +14.5
  Jan 18, 2025 298   Austin Peay W 88-60 93%     11 - 6 5 - 1 +17.6 +17.4 +1.7
  Jan 23, 2025 163   @ North Alabama W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 339   @ Central Arkansas W 78-63 91%    
  Jan 30, 2025 248   Eastern Kentucky W 82-68 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 353   Bellarmine W 84-62 98%    
  Feb 05, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 80-64 93%    
  Feb 08, 2025 210   @ Queens W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 13, 2025 348   Stetson W 85-64 98%    
  Feb 15, 2025 168   Florida Gulf Coast W 74-65 82%    
  Feb 18, 2025 248   @ Eastern Kentucky W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 20, 2025 163   North Alabama W 78-69 79%    
  Feb 24, 2025 298   @ Austin Peay W 73-62 84%    
  Feb 26, 2025 339   Central Arkansas W 81-61 97%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 6.5 23.3 29.4 15.7 75.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.7 7.4 4.5 0.4 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.0 1.9 0.1 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 7.4 15.9 27.9 29.8 15.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 15.7    15.5 0.2
16-2 98.5% 29.4    25.9 3.4 0.1
15-3 83.3% 23.3    13.4 8.5 1.3 0.0
14-4 41.0% 6.5    1.7 2.9 1.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 9.9% 0.7    0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 75.6% 75.6 56.5 15.4 3.2 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 15.7% 62.9% 62.9% 11.5 0.0 0.2 4.4 5.1 0.2 5.8
16-2 29.8% 57.3% 57.3% 12.3 0.9 10.2 5.6 0.4 12.7
15-3 27.9% 52.2% 52.2% 12.7 0.1 5.5 7.5 1.4 0.0 13.3
14-4 15.9% 44.7% 44.7% 13.1 0.0 1.2 4.0 1.8 0.1 8.8
13-5 7.4% 39.1% 39.1% 13.4 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.1 4.5
12-6 2.5% 32.5% 32.5% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.7
11-7 0.7% 26.8% 26.8% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
10-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 52.5% 52.5% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.2 5.4 22.4 19.0 5.2 0.4 47.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.9% 100.0% 11.5 0.1 1.9 44.3 51.8 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.7%