Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#135
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#148
Pace80.0#5
Improvement-4.1#328

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#206
First Shot-0.2#183
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#249
Layup/Dunks-0.7#211
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#167
Freethrows+2.5#51
Improvement+0.4#165

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#101
First Shot+2.5#92
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#183
Layups/Dunks+5.5#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#212
Freethrows-3.1#349
Improvement-4.5#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 6.5% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.5
.500 or above 59.5% 74.9% 36.7%
.500 or above in Conference 20.4% 30.9% 5.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round5.4% 6.5% 3.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 59.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 37 - 79 - 14
Quad 47 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 115   Wichita St. L 84-91 54%     0 - 1 -6.7 -1.2 -4.5
  Nov 09, 2024 89   @ Grand Canyon L 72-74 25%     0 - 2 +6.4 -0.5 +7.0
  Nov 17, 2024 101   Lipscomb W 66-61 48%     1 - 2 +6.9 -10.1 +16.7
  Nov 20, 2024 271   Jackson St. W 79-62 82%     2 - 2 +8.7 -0.1 +8.1
  Nov 26, 2024 17   @ Kentucky L 68-87 6%     2 - 3 +0.5 -6.4 +8.8
  Nov 30, 2024 190   Marshall W 90-82 70%     3 - 3 +3.8 +5.3 -2.4
  Dec 07, 2024 237   @ Evansville W 79-65 61%     4 - 3 +12.5 +6.8 +5.4
  Dec 10, 2024 269   Tennessee St. W 84-60 82%     5 - 3 +15.8 +1.3 +12.7
  Dec 14, 2024 156   Murray St. W 81-76 OT 63%     6 - 3 +2.9 -4.8 +6.9
  Dec 17, 2024 165   Seattle W 86-73 65%     7 - 3 +10.2 +13.2 -3.0
  Dec 29, 2024 22   @ Michigan L 64-112 7%     7 - 4 -29.8 -10.6 -11.3
  Jan 02, 2025 77   @ Liberty W 71-70 21%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +10.9 +3.1 +7.8
  Jan 04, 2025 268   @ Florida International L 66-85 66%     8 - 5 1 - 1 -22.0 -14.3 -5.1
  Jan 09, 2025 124   Jacksonville St. L 67-73 57%     8 - 6 1 - 2 -6.5 -6.7 +0.3
  Jan 11, 2025 131   Kennesaw St. W 85-69 59%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +15.1 +4.9 +8.7
  Jan 18, 2025 122   @ Middle Tennessee L 57-71 37%     9 - 7 2 - 3 -9.2 -13.0 +3.7
  Jan 23, 2025 123   @ Louisiana Tech L 67-77 37%     9 - 8 2 - 4 -5.3 -3.8 -1.5
  Jan 25, 2025 160   @ Sam Houston St. W 75-66 45%     10 - 8 3 - 4 +11.7 +5.0 +7.0
  Jan 30, 2025 139   UTEP W 78-74 60%     11 - 8 4 - 4 +2.6 -0.6 +3.0
  Feb 01, 2025 146   New Mexico St. W 101-69 62%     12 - 8 5 - 4 +30.3 +29.6 +0.4
  Feb 06, 2025 131   @ Kennesaw St. L 69-76 39%     12 - 9 5 - 5 -2.8 -1.6 -1.1
  Feb 08, 2025 124   @ Jacksonville St. L 83-85 37%     12 - 10 5 - 6 +2.6 +11.3 -8.7
  Feb 15, 2025 122   Middle Tennessee L 77-87 56%     12 - 11 5 - 7 -10.3 +0.7 -10.6
  Feb 20, 2025 160   Sam Houston St. L 62-78 64%     12 - 12 5 - 8 -18.4 -11.0 -7.8
  Feb 22, 2025 123   Louisiana Tech W 74-72 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 139   @ UTEP L 75-77 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 146   @ New Mexico St. L 70-72 40%    
  Mar 06, 2025 268   Florida International W 80-71 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 77   Liberty L 70-74 38%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.0 3rd
4th 2.1 2.1 4.2 4th
5th 0.2 6.5 0.5 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 6.5 6.8 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 2.9 17.4 1.3 21.6 7th
8th 0.6 9.9 25.8 9.3 0.0 45.5 8th
9th 1.2 4.0 1.8 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 1.8 13.9 30.5 33.3 16.8 3.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 3.6% 13.5% 13.5% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.1
9-9 16.8% 10.7% 10.7% 13.3 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 15.0
8-10 33.3% 4.7% 4.7% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 31.8
7-11 30.5% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 29.4
6-12 13.9% 2.9% 2.9% 15.2 0.3 0.1 13.5
5-13 1.8% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.7
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 13.9 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.2 94.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.7 42.9 44.9 12.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%
Lose Out 1.2%