Marshall
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#186
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#206
Pace74.6#52
Improvement-0.5#214

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#206
First Shot-0.9#193
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#211
Layup/Dunks-3.5#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#180
Freethrows+0.6#145
Improvement+0.1#166

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#171
First Shot-1.3#215
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#77
Layups/Dunks-0.2#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#34
Freethrows-3.4#346
Improvement-0.5#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 6.9% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 63.1% 72.8% 49.6%
.500 or above in Conference 70.2% 79.7% 56.9%
Conference Champion 6.7% 9.5% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.6% 3.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round5.8% 6.9% 4.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Away) - 58.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 10
Quad 412 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 206   Toledo L 80-90 65%     0 - 1 -15.3 -5.5 -9.1
  Nov 11, 2024 281   Southern Indiana W 77-63 78%     1 - 1 +4.8 -0.9 +5.7
  Nov 16, 2024 333   Bellarmine W 83-62 87%     2 - 1 +7.6 +0.5 +7.1
  Nov 23, 2024 22   @ Purdue L 45-80 5%     2 - 2 -17.7 -19.8 +0.5
  Nov 27, 2024 262   South Carolina St. W 82-53 76%     3 - 2 +20.4 +6.7 +14.2
  Nov 30, 2024 106   @ Western Kentucky L 82-90 21%     3 - 3 -0.7 +6.6 -6.4
  Dec 04, 2024 279   Morehead St. W 80-77 77%     4 - 3 -6.2 +3.2 -9.3
  Dec 07, 2024 142   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-78 31%     4 - 4 -5.0 -5.6 +1.0
  Dec 11, 2024 133   @ Wright St. L 79-88 29%     4 - 5 -4.5 -0.1 -3.7
  Dec 14, 2024 161   Ohio W 79-70 57%     5 - 5 +5.9 +0.1 +5.5
  Dec 21, 2024 282   @ Southern Miss W 76-74 58%    
  Dec 28, 2024 149   @ Elon L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 02, 2025 138   Texas St. W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 127   Troy L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 09, 2025 112   James Madison L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 235   Georgia Southern W 81-75 70%    
  Jan 16, 2025 112   @ James Madison L 72-80 24%    
  Jan 18, 2025 274   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 23, 2025 253   @ Georgia St. W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 235   @ Georgia Southern L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 30, 2025 253   Georgia St. W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 274   Coastal Carolina W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 05, 2025 111   Arkansas St. L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 201   @ South Alabama L 70-72 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 304   @ Louisiana W 78-74 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 318   @ Old Dominion W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 171   @ Appalachian St. L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 25, 2025 318   Old Dominion W 82-71 83%    
  Feb 28, 2025 171   Appalachian St. W 70-68 58%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 6.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.5 2.5 0.7 0.1 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 4.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 5.2 3.8 0.7 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.9 4.8 0.9 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.6 5.4 1.5 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.5 5.4 2.1 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 4.4 2.8 0.2 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.0 0.1 4.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.2 8.1 11.2 13.3 14.4 13.7 11.3 8.2 5.2 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 93.0% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-3 73.8% 2.0    1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 40.2% 2.1    0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1
13-5 12.6% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 3.3 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 29.3% 29.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.1% 20.6% 20.6% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-3 2.7% 19.9% 19.9% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.2
14-4 5.2% 16.0% 16.0% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.4
13-5 8.2% 12.5% 12.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.2
12-6 11.3% 10.1% 10.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 10.1
11-7 13.7% 6.3% 6.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 12.8
10-8 14.4% 3.7% 3.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 13.9
9-9 13.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.0
8-10 11.2% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.1
7-11 8.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.0
6-12 5.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.2
5-13 3.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.0
4-14 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 1.8 0.5 94.1 0.0%